Jeop
Bertrams , The Netherlands
[Click Here for More Jeop Bertrams Cartoons]
Putin's Goals in Syria are 'Modest and Domestic' (Le Monde, France)
"Does Russia want a 'crusade' against Sunni jihadism ?: Without a doubt - but
the commitment of a few hundred Russian soldiers that were requested by
Damascus will make little difference in the face of tens of thousands of jihadists.
Does the Kremlin want to enforce an 'international league' of
dictatorships? Perhaps, but the fate of the hugely popular Putin isn't directly
tied to Assad's. What Russia wants in Syria is simply to defend its clients,
allies and faculties in the region. In brief, in Syria, Russia is defending its
national interests for quite a modest cost militarily and financially. Vladimir
Putin is, on this occasion, less an ideologue than a 'Realpolitiker .'
By Cyrille Bret*
Translated By
Martyn Fogg
October 21,
2015
France
– Le Monde – Original Article (French) Daesh
[Islamic State] as he has recently said? Is it to sustain a threatened
dictator, as Westerners fear? These official objectives illustrate the Russian
government's talent for "diplomatic marketing," but should not
obscure the structural objectives of Russia, which are less ideological and
more defined.
Europeans and Americans are worried about the implications
of Russia's current military involvement in Syria. The installation of a mobile
control tower and the expansion of runways at the military airport in the Latakia district of northern Syria, the landing of 200
marine troops, the deployment of a dozen armored vehicles and attack
helicopters, the fitting out of barracks for at least 1,000 soldiers - all
these movements at once suggest the direct engagement of Russian troops, added momentum in the arms race between Sunnis and Shiites and a boost to a conflict that has left 250,000 dead and displaced 4 million.
VIDEO
These initially discreet and now openly declared initiatives
are primarily designed to ensure that a Russian military facility stands
against the advance of the front: "a fulcrum of material and technical support"
for the Tartus base, granted to the USSR in 1971 and
redeveloped by Russia since 2009. Physically modest (two floating docks), this
infrastructure is militarily essential to the Black Sea Fleet: it allows its
ships to put into port without having to return to Sebastopol and therefore
without crossing the Turkish Straits. Faced with the American Sixth Fleet and
given the state of Russian-Turkish relations, Tartus
together with a military airfield and listening posts this close to the Middle
East ensures a permanent Russian presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. From
the 2014 annexation of Crimea to the deployment of troops to Syria today by way
of a naval agreement with Cyprus in February 2015, Russia pursues an age-old secular
defensive objective: ensuring its naval power has access to warm seas.
Russia also wants to maintain a vital outlet for its military-industrial
complex while its economy is in recession (its GDP dropped 4.2 percent in the
2nd quarter). Syria is a long-standing customer: since 1956 it has signed contracts
worth billions of dollars). On average, its exports to Syria are estimated to
constitute 10 percent of Russian defense exports. Russia now wants to avoid a
repeat of the 2011 Libya scenario, which saw one of its largest customers
disappear, and preserve its trade balance while also providing an assurance to potential
customers in the region: Russia honors its contracts and is an alternative
supplier to the West for sophisticated defense systems. At a time when Russian
defense exports to Iran have resumed with a contract for SS-300 PMU1
anti-aircraft missiles, this market signal will be well-received in the region
and beyond.
Intervening in Syria is also a measure aimed at a domestic
audience: Moscow as always seeks to offset its difficulties at home with a rise
in patriotism; it also means, perhaps, as historian Thomas Gomart
argues, keeping its own jihadists from the Caucuses – all 2,000 of them – far from
Russia. Above all, though, it is pursuing abroad its domestic religious and
identity politics: promote the Christian Orthodox religion (41 percent of the
population) in the face of a strong Russian Muslim minority (15 percent). In
Syria, although Moscow certainly supports the Assad regime, this is mainly about
the politics of Russia.
Finally, Russia wants to strengthen its alliance with Iran,
which plays a central role in the ground operations against Daesh .
It also seeks to garner other international benefits by pointing out the
passivity of Europeans incapable of dealing with the causes of migration and taking an honorable antiterrorist role at the U.N. General Assembly. Rather
than a weakened Assad dictatorship, Russia wants to encourage the reemergence
of the Shiite power in the region.
Does Russia want a "crusade" against Sunni jihadism ?: Without a doubt - but
the commitment of a few hundred Russian soldiers that were requested by
Damascus will make little difference in the face of tens of thousands of jihadists.
Does the Kremlin want to enforce an "international league" of
dictatorships? Perhaps, but the fate of the hugely popular Putin isn't directly
tied to Assad's. What Russia wants in Syria is simply to defend its clients,
allies and faculties in the region. In brief, in Syria, Russia is defending its
national interests for quite a modest cost militarily and financially. Vladimir
Putin is, on this occasion, less an ideologue than a "Realpolitiker ."
*Cyrille Bret teaches at Sciences-Po University in Paris and
co-directs the geopolitical Web site EurAsia
Prospective.
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'Obsolete' NATO Liberation, France: Russian President 'Dictates
His Peace' to Hapless Europe Le Figaro, France: Between America and Russia,
the E.U. is On the Front Line Le Figaro, France: War in the Caucasus: Georgia
'Doesn? Stand a Chance' Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia
Crisis for Russia and the West Le Figaro, France: Did Russia 'Win' the Georgia
Crisis? Not By a Long Shot Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany: Did Russia 'Win'
the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot
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[Posted By Worldmeets.US, October 21,
2015, 4:59pm]
