Secretary of
State Kerry and Ukraine Prime Minister Yatsenyuk
in Ukraine today: Will
America provide 'lethal aid' to Ukraine?
'Raising the Stakes,' Putin Draws America Back to Europe's Side (Le Figaro, France)
"In the
game of liar's poker Russia is playing to divide Europe and the Atlantic
Alliance and reassert its grip on its former empire, Putin has decided to raise
the stakes without batting an eyelid. 'How far will he
go?' the anxiety-ridden U.S. administration asks itself. It realizes that hopes
of managing the crisis through an arsenal of dissuasive economic sanctions have
instead led Putin to redouble his aggressiveness. In Moscow and across Europe,
the ideological battle to discredit the West is in full swing. Suddenly, great concern
and deep distress has gripped Washington over a Russian question it thought had
disappeared from the radar screen."
America is finally beginning to take stock of the danger the aggressive
power of Putin's Russia poses to the future of Europe. It took a while. In
2009, despite the war in Georgia, Obama still thought he could "work with
Moscow." Even after the annexation of Crimea and the Kremlin's covertly-launched
war in east Ukraine, America continued to hope that a combination of economic
sanctions and negotiations would resolve the crisis without much damage. She
underestimated the Russian danger, classifying it "regional." Not anymore.
Liar's Poker
With the
Minsk process buried in the rubble of Donetsk airport and the attacks
carried out by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's Mariupol,
the White House understands that a political solution is "far from within
reach," and that in the game of liar's poker Russia is playing to divide
Europe and the Atlantic Alliance and reassert its grip on its former empire,
Putin has decided to raise the stakes without batting an eyelid. "How far
will he go?" the anxiety-ridden U.S. administration asks itself. It
realizes that hopes of managing the crisis through an arsenal of dissuasive
economic sanctions have instead led Putin to redouble his aggressiveness. In Moscow
and across Europe, the ideological battle to discredit the West is in full
swing.
Suddenly, great concern and deep distress has gripped Washington
over a Russian question it thought had disappeared from the radar screen. On a
number of points, America has begun to respond. In particular, the Administration
decided to stiffen economic sanctions that have already resulted in the collapse
of the ruble and the Russian economy. Shuttling between Washington and Europe has
resumed, the priority of Obama being to preserve a united front. Taking a tough
line alongside Berlin, America has endeavored to rally France; after a meeting
between François Hollande and Vladimir Putin at Sheremetyevo
Airport, Paris contemplated aloud the possible end of sanctions in exchange for
sufficient Russian concessions. Paris has subsequently readopted a harder line ...
Strengthen NATO
deployments
The other concern will be to strengthen NATO deployments in
Eastern Europe (notably by installing "new commands" in six countries)
in the event Russia gets any ideas about putting Article 5
to the test [an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all]. Another major
axis: the strengthening of Ukraine. Obama's entourage claims that Kiev has
"the most competent and reformist government" since independence, and
have called for $15 billion to be spent in the short term to help Ukraine
"successfully transform 93 percent of the territory it controls." John
Kerry is in Kiev to voice this support [video, below].
But will he go as far as to offer Ukrainians the military support
they are asking for? It isn't clear. On Monday [Feb. 2], the think-tank Atlantic
Council, which is very well informed on the matter, published a report prepared
by some of the biggest names in foreign policy that calls for the provision of $1billion
in military assistance for Ukraine [Preserving
Ukraine's Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States
and NATO Must Do. In the White House, however, "pondering this
eventuality anew," it is with considerable hesitation due to a "fear
of escalation."
Posted By Worldmeets.US
Test for the West
The administration fears that Putin, who recently called the
Ukrainian army "a NATO foreign legion," will see this as a declaration
of war and raise the stakes by engaging in an "escalation" to test
the West. According to a source close to American intelligence, Washington intercepted
a message from a Russian general calling for a preventative tactical nuclear
strike against Ukraine in the event it is invited to join NATO. Not ruling out
a deliberate leak designed to intimidate, the U.S. services note, however, that
such messages reflect the unpredictability of a Russia prepared to do anything
"to keep Ukraine." The Americans are also greatly concerned about the
deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Crimea and the "dramatic
modernization" of the Russian nuclear arsenal ...
For leading experts, there is no doubt that Putin "is upping
the ante, so that things which appeared unacceptable a short time ago can now
be put on the table," notes Atlantic Council Vice President Damon
Wilson. Strategist Walter Russell Mead
notes that the Kremlin leader "believes that the American commitment in
Europe is so weak that the U.S. will not respond in time or with enough
efficiency while Russia endeavors to change the European order." Mead
believes Putin can be proven wrong, "but we will
have to raise our bets. American policy makers are going to have to turn back on
their heels and make a commitment in Europe [quotes in this paragraph are
translated]."
