Finding a win-win
scenario with Vladimir Putin would be no Kobayashi
Maru. Russia has long wanted a seat at the table
on Ukraine. It may
be time for the E.U. and U.S. to show some sensitivity and offer one.
Finding the Win-Win Scenario With Vladimir Putin (Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany)
"The largest share of responsibility for a de-escalation in
Ukraine now lies with the E.U. Last year, Putin gained diplomatic influence
on the world stage in connection with Syria and worldwide surveillance by the
NSA. Putin’s approach to Ukraine also stems from these events. His
self-confidence, previously wounded and now bolstered, makes him unpredictable
- but offers an opportunity. Just as a Russian diplomatic masterstroke
prevented a military intervention in Syria, the E.U. and the U.S. can take on
the task of obliging Russia to restrain itself as well."
An odd recurring scene: Residents come to watch as Russian troops stand gurad at a Ukrainian Navy base in Perevalnoe, Crimea. Keeping events from flying out of control may still be possible.
Vladimir Putin
is not solely responsible for the escalation of the situation in Crimea. The
West has also failed to learn from past mistakes.
An
editorial on the Crimean conflict.
It
is tempting to think of Kremlin “ruler” Vladimir Putin as the only villain in
the current Ukraine escalation. He did, eventually, reassign thousands of
Russian troops to Crimea. A war on Ukrainian territory - perhaps localized -
seems only a matter of time. However, Putin’s invasion was long in the making.It shows that neither the
regime in Moscow, nor the West, have learned from the mistakes of years past.
Since
the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West has repeatedly snubbed Moscow.
NATO's eastward expansion, recognition of Kosovo, and war on Libyan tyrant
Muammar Qaddafi, are just a few of the wounds inflicted over the demonstrative
opposition of Moscow. Individually, there were good reasons for these steps,
but it would have been smart to consider the wisdom of repeatedly turning a
deaf ear to Russian exhortations.
Political
Symbolism a Mistake
The
Georgia-Russia war can be viewed as Moscow’s answer to the recognition of
Kosovo. After fighting in Abkazia and South Ossetia
began, then-Russian president, Putin’s puppet Dmitry Medvedev, rebuffed one
Western politician after another. Russia’s blind support for Syrian butcher Bashar al-Assad is a consequence of Western intervention in
the Libyan civil war. Ongoing difficulties in Kosovo and post-war chaos in
Libya have reinforced Moscow in its position.
At
the height of the protests in Maidan Square, European
politicians where right to assert that a solution in Ukraine can only be found
with Russia. Now [Foreign Minister] Steinmeier and
his counterparts from France and Poland are asking themselves why they didn't
insist on the participation of Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in talks in Kiev between the opposition and
then-President Viktor Yanukovich.
The
proposal of Putin's friend, Gerhard Schröder, was not
as far-fetched as it seemed: He suggested that the United Nations be brought in
as a mediator for Ukraine. Russia regularly refers to human rights, and
particularly the rights of sovereign states. If the former superpower is
currently violating these rights, it is against the backdrop Western actions
during the Arab Spring.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
Rather
that coming out immediately for E.U. or NATO membership, Europe should have
staked out a clearer position on Russia's sister-country Ukraine before. It is
erroneous political symbolism that has angered Moscow. In addition, stationing the
long-planned U.S. missile defense shield in Poland and Rumania was also
perceived as pure provocation by Russia.
The EU is
responsible
Yet
more: the West's financial and logistical support of the peaceful 2003 Rose Revolution in
Georgia, and the 2004 Orange
Revolution in Ukraine were perceived by Moscow as illegitimate interference
in its interests. The fact that Russian leaders remain haunted by this more
than 20 year after the collapse of the Soviet Union may only merit a grin on
the part of Western strategists, but to ignore these feelings and continue to
pretend that Russia is the only one that need adapt to the new world order is
extremely dangerous.
Women demonstrate against
the former regime of Viktor Yanukovich in
Maiden Square, Kiev, Mar.
2. No wild-eyed extremists, the likelihood is
that neither side is as
radical as Russian, U.S., or E.U. officials suggest.
The largest share of responsibility for a de-escalation in Ukraine now lies with the E.U. For
over 20 years, Russian politicians have complained of chasing world events
and of struggling to find their place. Last year, Putin gained diplomatic
influence on the world stage in connection with Syria and worldwide surveillance
by the NSA. Putin’s approach to Ukraine stems also stems from these events. His
self-confidence, previously wounded and now bolstered, makes him unpredictable
- but offers an opportunity. Just as a Russian diplomatic masterstroke
prevented a military intervention in Syria, the E.U. and the U.S. can take on
the task of obliging Russia to restrain itself as well.
The Next Move
Belongs to the West
Moscow,
Kiev, Brussels and Washington could work together to develop a plan for an
autonomous Republic of Crimea. That would be a victory for both Ukraine as well
as East-West diplomacy. Putin has made his move. Now it's the turn of the West.
After
all of his experience, the former KGBer is again
expecting provocation and ignorance. The Western community of shared values
should surprise him and refrain from issuing renewed threats - thereby
preventing more bloodshed.
