The 'Caliphate Effect': New Horizons for Global Jihad (Le Figaro, France)
"There is,
around the world, a 'caliphate effect.' Whether or not they pay allegiance to
the new 'prince of believers,' the jihadist movements
see in their radicalization an element of success. If the IS doesn't always win
people over, it inspires - everywhere. The largest Muslim country in the world,
Indonesia, has become alarmed by the growing popularity of IS in certain
segments of the population. And here, in Europe, an unprecedented wave of
international jihadists is rising up. Their return from the front promises to
be painful."
The Islamic State (IS) has territory and an army, and has
set itself up in the Middle East landscape so quickly that one wonders if it
won't soon start minting coins. Within months, the jihadist movement has
achieved what in a decade, al-Qaeda never really accomplished. By proclaiming a
Caliphate that straddles Iraq and Syria, it has shaken up century-old frontiers
and carved out for itself a bloody kingdom from which it clearly intends to
radiate. The Islamic State not only has an inspiring narrative, it has the
attractive power of the victors.
One wonders if this amounts to the devaluation of the
al-Qaeda "brand." Will the Islamic State pull off a masterly takeover
bid for international jihadism? If one holds to the
prevailing media noise and the dread of chancelleries, the answer is clearly
yes. The swordsmen of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi - nom de
guerre of the caliph - have in just weeks established themselves as Public
Enemy No. 1. They are masters of communication. It is a terrifying marriage of
anachronistic barbarism and information technology.
If we consider the catalog of oaths of allegiance made by adherents,
the impression is more nuanced. The flamboyance of the caliph has aroused some
rallying cries, but it isn't yet a breaking wave. Certainly, al-Qaeda has lost
some franchises, even in the most remote corners of the Levant. Thus, in early July,
Nigeria's BokoHaram threw its support to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and proclaimed a caliphate in the north
of that country. Nothing too surprising. If the two
movements have nothing in common in terms of size, they are certainly brothers
in cruelty. A faction of the Pakistani Taliban has also joined the IS. It is
not a collapse, but it is worrying for al-Qaeda since the Pakistan-Afghan
border is its fiefdom. And this Tuesday, an Afghan Islamist group, Hezb-e-Islami, announced that it could place itself under the
black banner of the IS. Again, this isn't surprising. The group has become known
for its brutality, which at times has put off the Taliban, even if they are no
prudes in this respect.
But the Islamist corporation
created by Osama bin Laden retains its principle subsidiaries. Notwithstanding
rumors of its attraction to the Caliphate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI) remains in the bosom of the organization. The proof
is that it hasn't yet changed its name. Another very active branch, al-Qaeda in
the Arab Peninsular (AQAP), whose sanctuary is in the
Yemen, also remains faithful to Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the boss of "al-Qaeda central." The
Somali Al-Shebab also displays the same constancy.
The rivalry between the two jihadist poles is perhaps
secondary. First of all, it's not set in stone in the mosques. The Islamic
State might suffer significant reversals on the ground in Iraq and Syria, and
its dark star could quickly fade. Without territory, "al-Qaeda
central" is less exposed to such reversals of fortune. And nothing says
that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Ayman
Al-Zawahiri won't one day form an alliance. Their
ideological differences are minimal ...
Posted By Worldmeets.US
The most serious issue lies beyond this power struggle among
the men in black. The threat lies in a less tangible influence. There is,
around the world, a "caliphate effect." Whether or not they pay
allegiance to the new "prince of believers," the jihadist
movements see in their radicalization an element of success. If the IS doesn't
always win people over, it inspires - everywhere. The largest Muslim country in
the world, Indonesia, has become alarmed by the growing popularity of IS in
certain segments of the population. And here, in Europe, an unprecedented wave
of international jihadists is rising up. Their return from the front promises
to be painful.
Al-Qaeda was able to attract jihadi volunteers with its
scripting of violence and the lyricism of its preaching. The Islamic State goes
further. It makes a gesture of victory. "Caliph Ibrahim" is sure of himself and has managed things excruciatingly well. From
Fallujah to the suburbs of Europe, that is enough to fascinate those who
vegetate in the camp of the defeated or disorientated. In the spring of 2011,
the death of Osama bin Laden seemed to mark the decline of international jihadism. Three years later, an insolent son has restored
all its vigor.
*Arnaud de la Grange
is international editor in chief at Le Figaro.
