After Georgia and Ukriane, Derelict West Tempts Putin Again (Rzeczpospolita, Poland)

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After Georgia and Ukriane, Derelict West Tempts Putin Again (Rzeczpospolita, Poland)

"[Syria] is a repeat of the same scenario we saw in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. The big words of the West were followed by inaction; Russia occupies strategic areas such as Abkhazia or Crimea, and after a few months Moscow's relations with Washington and Brussels return to 'normal.' … After being so successful three times in a row, won't Vladimir Putin want to strike again in the coming years?; and if so, where?; and if intoxicated with success – isn’t he likely to go too far?"

By Jędrzej Bielecki

Translated By Ludmila Gustaw-Edwards

October 17, 2015

Poland – Rzeczpospolita – Original Article (Polish)

Since the last day of September when Russian aircraft began bombing the Syrian opposition, not a day has gone by a spectacular escalation of the Kremlin offensive. On October 7, there were missile strikes from ships in the Caspian Sea - 1,000 miles from the theater of operations. After what appeared to be the precision firing of 26 missiles by four Russian combat vessels, Vladimir Putin could congratulate his admirals before the eyes of the world.

At the same time, Russian fighters - again a precedent - engaged in coordinated bombings with the ground forces of Bashar Assad in the provinces of Hama and Idlib. Suddenly there was the very real possibility of the regime recovering strategic towns near the Syrian coast and repelling anti-Assad rebels further inland.

To the further bewilderment of the West, Russian warplanes - almost certainly deliberately – violated the airspace of Turkish, a country with the second largest army in NATO.

From Washington and Brussels came a barrage of sharp statements.

"It's unacceptable, it's dangerous, and it's reckless behavior and it adds to the tensions," ranted in NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on CNN.

"This is a wrong strategy, which will end in defeat" said Pentagon chief Ashton Carter on the Kremlin’s actions.

It also infuriated Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, because troops of the more-or-less moderate Syrian opposition, which these countries support, suddenly found themselves on the defensive. Some of them, like those of the al-Qaeda-aligned al-Nusra Front even announced a jihad against Moscow – which may well lead to attacks against Russian bases in Tartus and Latakia and even Russia itself.

But Putin has an ace up his sleeve: none of the external allies of the rebels will ever decide to conduct a ground offensive in Syria, nor will they build bases like Russia's.

It has already been a number of years since Barack Obama made a strategic decision to abandon land-based activities in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Turkey will at most limit themselves to providing the rebels with MANPADS [man-portable air-defense systems]. "They can be effective, but they will not change the outcome of the war, said David Butter, Middle East director at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit.

Syria's 'moderate' opposition has told Washington that without MANPADS, some of the most lethal weapons on the...
Posted by WorldMeetsUS on Friday, June 27, 2014

Putin realized this summer that he had a free hand in Syria when despite an unprecedented flood of refugees - Europe was united in deciding against effective military intervention. Only France sent several fighters over Syria. If Westminster gives its approval, it might be joined by the United Kingdom.

Posted By Worldmeets.US,

It is a repeat of the same scenario we saw in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. The big words of the West were followed by inaction; Russia occupies strategic areas such as Abkhazia or Crimea, and after a few months Moscow's relations with Washington and Brussels return to "normal."

As with these two previous conflicts, this time Putin hasn't set himself maximalist goals. It is hardly likely that the Russians will decide to conduct a ground offensive in Syria: the Kremlin's memory of defeat in Afghanistan 30 years ago is still too fresh. The Russians also realize that the forces of Bashar Assad, which have shrunk from 300,000 to 80,000 over the last five years, will be unable to retake wide swaths of the country. Putin, even if he wanted to, cannot banish the Islamic State from Syria; at most he might push it into the uninhabited eastern part of the country. The Russians will also likely fail to completely marginalize the U.S.-backed moderate opposition.

Nevertheless, just recapturing the provinces of Hama and Idlib would significantly alter the balance of power in the Middle East. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow would not only be in a position of strength in this important conflict beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union, but it would also have an important voice in determining any new borders created out of the ruins of Syria and Iraq.

However, the question arises: after being so successful three times in a row, won't Vladimir Putin want to strike again in the coming years?; and if so, where?; and if intoxicated with success – isn’t he likely to go too far?

After Russia's air force violated the airspace of the Baltic countries and Scandinavia hundreds of times, the comfortably-wealthy countries of Europe decided not to take tough response. But with Turkey things might go differently. If President Recep Erdogan ultimately decides to shoot down a Russian fighter, won't the situation spin out of control?

By avoiding military engagement in the Syrian conflict for the past five years, the West not only created conditions suitable for Russian intervention, it now encourages Putin to play with fire.

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