Putin and the generals: Will Sweden and Finland be safer joining
NATO, or
heeding Russia's warning that joining NATO would make them more
insecure?
Sweden and
Finland: Where Military 'Impotence' Meets the Russian Bear (Publico, Portugal)
"Will
Sweden and Finland abandon their historic neutrality and join NATO? … In
Stockholm, the case of the 'phantom submarine' dominated the week. … What
worries the Swedes is their military impotence. In 2008, Sweden sold its fleet
of anti-submarine helicopters, and only in 2017 will it have another. … In December
2012, the commander of the armed forces shocked the nation by declaring that in
the event of an attack, the army would only be able to defend the country for a
week."
Growing tension in the Baltic Sea presents Stockholm and
Helsinki with a dilemma: To join NATO would be the best guarantee of their
security, but Moscow tells them precisely the opposite.
There has been a succession of military incidents in the
Baltic Sea that threaten to transform it into a new theater of
political-military conflict. Consequently, a question arises: will Sweden and
Finland abandon their historic neutrality and join NATO? That remains unlikely at
the moment, but the debate has been reopened.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, although belonging to NATO,
are the countries with the greatest sense of vulnerability, fearing being next on
Moscow target list. Sweden and Finland are similarly concerned. Tension in the
Baltics, already on the rise in recent years, has skyrocketed with Russia's
occupation of Crimea.
By themselves, the incidents would have little relevance.
What “unnerves” is their recurrence. Example: according to the BBC, on Thursday, NATO jets intercepted
a “Russian spy plane.” An Ilyushin-20 was
intercepted by two Danish F-16s when it approached Danish airspace. It was then
intercepted by Swedish fighters before entering Estonian airspace. From there,
it was escorted back to international airspace by a pair if Portuguese F-16s.
The phantom submarine
In Stockholm, the case of the “phantom submarine” dominated
the week. The Swedish navy launched a “track-and-capture” operation of the
mysterious underwater craft which is assumed to be Russian off the coast of the
capital. The spectacle evoked scenes of the Cold War: in 1981, a Soviet submarine
carrying nuclear weapons near Sweden's largest naval base was held for ten days
[the submarine
reportedly ran aground].
The operation, involving
ships and helicopters, was launched on Saturday. On Monday, the Swedish daily Expressen dedicated 20 pages to the event. Moscow denied
the accusations. Experts believe it to be a “mini sub” that could easily hide
out amid the myriad islands and bays off the coast of Stockholm. More than the
intrusion, what worries the Swedes is their military impotence. In 2008, Sweden
sold its fleet of anti-submarine helicopters, and only in 2017 will it have
another.
The most traumatic episode dates back to March 29, 2013.
Intercontinental bombers and Russian fighters conducted an exercise in which
they simulated a surprise attack on military targets in Stockholm and southern
Sweden. The Swedish Air Force was unable to immediately react.
Sweden recently had one of the most powerful armies in the
world. The end of the Cold War and the economic crisis of the 1990s led to
drastic cutbacks. Stockholm neglected its territorial defenses and put its
resources into international missions. In December 2012, the commander of the armed
forces shocked the nation by declaring that in the event of an attack, the army
would only be able to defend the country for a week.
The new Russia of Vladimir Putin and the pressure it exerts
on neighboring countries, notably the three Baltic States, are forcing Swedes
to reconsider their two-century-old neutrality: “No military alliance in
peacetime, neutrality in wartime.”
Semi-neutrality
The neutrality of Sweden and Finland is no longer what it
was during the Cold War. They joined the European Union. They don't belong to
NATO but joined its Partnership
for Peace in 1994. They are “NATO partners in disguise.” They participate
in Alliance exercises and NATO missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Stockholm
had an active role in air operations over Libya in 2011. In June, Russian and
NATO naval forces conducted joint naval maneuvers and Swedish and Finnish ships
were among the forces of the Alliance.
So far, both countries have perceived the “solidarity” of the
E.U. and NATO in terms of security – but they know that security guarantee
against military attack only apply to NATO members. Danes and Norwegians have warned
Sweden that in the event of an aggression, they will only help within the
framework of NATO. Therefore, the question has become the subject of
parliamentary debate.
In March, the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet wrote: "The
truth is that there is no alternative to NATO. Membership would bring Sweden
out of its current security-policy vacuum.”
In April, former Finland President MarttiAhtisaari advocated that his country join NATO. Yet
public opinion is divided. For 50 percent of Swedes and 58 percent of Finns, their
countries should stay out of the Alliance. British newspaper The
Guardian notes that if Swedes lose
confidence in the capacity of their armed forces to ensure the nation's
security, “in the long run, the logic of Sweden’s geostrategic position makes Nato membership almost inevitable.”
Posted By Worldmeets.US
The Nordics wonder: how far is Moscow willing to go? According
to former Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt - who
advocates a hard line against Moscow, the Baltics will be the great “test for
relations between the West and Russia.”
What's the logic of the “provocations” by Moscow, which has
no interest in harassing Sweden and Finland? Tomas
Ries, security expert at the National Defence College in Stockholm, answers: “Russia is
sending a message to the outside world, saying that the "old" Europe
is over. … Russia wants to create a new status quo in Europe.”
Moscow has no interest in antagonizing Sweden and Finland. What
it says is that they will face added security problems if they continue to approach
NATO.
The operation, involving
ships and helicopters, was launched on Saturday. On Monday, the Swedish daily 
