Russia President Putin, left, and Ukraine
President Petro Poroshenko, right,
after their first meeting in months.
The meeting, held at a Eurasian Customs
Union summit in Minsk, was convened by Belarusian President
Alexander
Lukashenko, center.
Ukraine: A
'Hopeless Struggle' for the Lost East (Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Germany)
"As long
as the Kremlin denies that the Russian army is sending its own troops, officers,
intelligence personnel and heavy weapons into the Donbas region, the Russian
president must maintain this pose. As long as the Kremlin denies it runs the
show in eastern Ukraine, honest negotiations cannot be conducted. So what is
left for President Poroshenko? What is left for the
government in Kiev to do?They must
prepare the people, for better or worse, for the fact that part of the Donbas,
which is still in the hands of pro-Russian forces, is lost."
Two hours of face-to-face talks are more than a handshake before
the cameras; a meeting is better than a phone call; and an exchange of promises
is more auspicious than the exchange of insults. That being said, the outcome
of the Minsk summit, at which the Russian and Ukrainian presidents met, was not
a success. It is no more than a glimmer of hope in the dark.
Vladimir Putin, adept as usual, removed himself from the
affair by expressing his desire for peace, while denying any responsibility for
that peace. His key sentence was, "Russia will do everything for the peace
process, if it begins." If - this means that ifPetro Poroshenko
negotiates with the separatists in eastern Ukraine, he can go ahead and attempt
to implement his own plan for peace.
But almost everything contained therein - the ceasefire, the
buffer zone on the border, the disarmament of fighters, the pullout of Russian
mercenaries, and the withdrawal of separatists from government administrative
buildings - would have to be wrung from Moscow's satraps - before, as a second
step, theoretically, political reforms could follow.
The Donbas region
will not return to Kiev's control
Putin's cynical argument that he has nothing to do with all
of this is correct and follows a compelling logic. For as long as the Kremlin
denies that the Russian army is sending its own troops, officers, intelligence
personnel and heavy weapons into the Donbas region, the Russian
president must maintain this pose. As long as the Kremlin denies it runs the
show in eastern Ukraine, honest negotiations cannot be conducted.
The problem with the Minsk summit is that there is nothing new
but a few details. So Moscow has changed its tactics in the Donbas. The
Russians, who had the final say on the militia and the administration, have
been withdrawn. Locals are once again acting as spokespeople. Was this done because
it makes it easier for Russia to distance itself from them; because otherwise, Kiev
would have to speak to the Russians about a ceasefire, which would be
embarrassing for Moscow?
At the same time, the Russian army is quite openly
infiltrating the area with convoys, soldiers, and tanks. This is fueling fear
among Ukrainians, so that even the smallest concessions from Moscow are
welcomed with gratitude.
Winter is approaching
and desperation is mounting
Meanwhile, the number of deaths is growing, the Ukrainian
army is experiencing shortages of almost everything, the volunteer battalions
are poorly trained, and the number of desertions is increasing. Winter is
approaching and patriotic enthusiasm notwithstanding, desperation over the
virtually impossible task is mounting. After a speedy victory - a victory no
one in Ukraine really dares believe in, the financial, political, and
especially the emotional cleanup would have to begin: the enormously expensive
reconstruction of a devastated region. Not to mention the difficult
reconciliation with those alienated embittered residents who stayed behind despite
the intense fighting, but who have now developed just as much hatred for Ukrainian
grenades as they have for the Russians. It's doubtful whether more power for
the regions, as is planned by Poroshenko, will do
much to effect these shattered relations and generalized suspicion.
What remains for
Poroshenko to do?
It is true: Even Putin's separatists may not want to
maintain control over and govern the shattered remnants of a decaying
industrial landscape in a hostile environment. However, the ongoing conflict,
fueled from Russia, is enough to destabilize Ukraine permanently and discredit Proshenko and his peace plan, which is only enforceable
with Moscow - not against it. So Vladimir Putin doesn't need to do very much. For
now, he can wait and keep the situation in limbo.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
So what is left for President Poroshenko?
What is left for the government in Kiev to do?They must prepare the people, for better or worse, for the fact that part
of the Donbas, which is still in the hands of pro-Russian forces, is lost -
either because recapturing it would cost too many people their lives and
exacerbate the conflict with Moscow, or because talks with the separatists will
have to take place, but are unlikely to lead to the implementation of Poroshenko's peace plan.
It is true that the plan provides for a constitutional amendment
to protect the Russian language and bring new jobs to the region - this is good
and right. Only - for the separatists, this would mean Kiev's return to decision-making
power over the Donbas.And at the
moment, that doesn't seem at all likely.
*CathrinKahlweit: Russian studies and political science in
Eugene (USA), Tübingen, Göttingen,
and Moscow, followed by the Hamburg School of Journalism with Gruner & Jahr.Freelance for Die Zeit,
Bavarian Broadcasting, then correspondent for Hesse, Rheinland-Pfalz, and the Saarland; return to Munich as part
of the domestic policy division, with an emphasis on family and social policy,
three years as head of Page 2 (Themen des Tages).Switch to
Berlin as editor-in-chief for the talk show 'Anne Will,' return to the SüddeutscheZeitung, foreign
policy division.Currently
correspondent in Vienna.Author of Mother of Three Children.
