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2015: On World War and Russia Sanctions (Sol, Portugal)

 

"The end of 2014 - year of the centenary of the Great War, mother of all wars and 20th century history - should lend some caution to Western officials. … How does an industrial and diplomatic competition between 'civilized' powers cross over into the imbecilic massacre of Flanders? … Washington and NATO continue to antagonize Moscow and Obama has approved new sanctions. … In August 1941, the Americans embargoed oil sales to Japan, which is how Tokyo obtained about 75 percent of its supply. Then they then froze its financial assets. Pearl Harbor came four months later."

 

By Jaime Nogueira Pinto

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Translated By Brandi Miller

 

January 7, 2015

 

Portugal - Sol - Original Article (Portuguese)

The end of 2014 - year of the centenary of the Great War, mother of all wars and 20th century history - should lend some caution to Western officials.

 

Dozens of titles are coming out about the origins of the conflict to reflect on the puzzle that remains: how does an industrial and diplomatic competition between “civilized” powers cross over into the imbecilic massacre of Flanders? How is it that an assassination in an out of the way place could determine such carnage within the world's power centers? And why would statesmen and prudent bureaucrats, with many years of realpolitik experience, allow themselves to get carried away with the chauvinistic and revanchist sentiments of demagogues?

 

 

In principle, the crises of 2015 have to do with political issues, some political-economic, others political-religious.

 

Today let's talk about the former.

 

The price of a barrel of crude, as a reference and master index of the market value of other energy products, is a key standard of world geopolitics. Because energy is a commodity that all states must evaluate and use - as exporters or importers - its value determines the value of many other goods and services essential to modern life.

 

Despite the many books and articles carrying energy forecasts - sometimes euphoric, sometimes pessimistic, some recommending confidence in the invisible hand of the free market, others state surveillance and containment - the right recipe in terms of predictions still hasn't been produced. And when energy is combined with politics and geopolitics, the calculations become yet more difficult.

 

The most complex reality at this moment is related to the situation with Putin’s Russia, simultaneously the victim of the low oil prices, its most valuable export, and economic sanctions from the West, imposed for political reasons.

Posted By Worldmeets.US

 

For Russia to balance its accounts, the price would have to be hover at $100 per barrel, well above the current $47 (Jan. 6). If some of the Western companies in the sector, under the pressure of sanctions, withdraw from joint ventures [with Russia], the losses from the break in investment with the added technological gap would in the short term contribute to a lowering of production, especially in the Arctic regions of Siberia and the deep offshore. The Russian Central Bank is stepping up efforts to defend the currency at the expense of interest rates and its dollar reserves, but this type of combat is always lopsided.

 

Washington and NATO continue to antagonize Moscow and Obama has approved new sanctions. Putin retains the strong support of Russians, but feels increasingly trapped and with fewer economic and diplomatic options.

 

In August 1941, the Americans embargoed oil sales to Japan, which is how Tokyo obtained about 75 percent of its supply. Then they then froze its financial assets. Pearl Harbor came four months later.

 

 

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Posted By Worldmeets.US Jan. 7, 2015 6:27am

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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