The corpses of the innocent lay strewn across fields in
rebel-controlled
Ukraine: can Russian backing of the insurgents survive such an
atrocity?
MH17: The Death Knell of Ukraine's Pro-Russian
Separatists (de Volkskrant, The Netherlands)
"If it is determined that the insurgents
are indeed responsible for downing the Malaysia Airlines plane, a diplomatic
storm against Moscow will undoubtedly ensue. American Senator John McCain
warned that Russia will have to pay a "damn high price," if it its
henchmen had a hand in the crash. ... The Kremlin will then face a difficult
choice. It can drop the rebels, close the borders to weaponry and volunteers,
and then watch the Ukrainian army quash the revolt. That would be a bitter pill
for Putin. The alternative, however, is also unattractive: a return to the dark
days of the Cold War."
If it
is established that the pro-Russian rebels shot down flight MH17, it could be
their death knell. A diplomatic storm will be raised
against Russia.
The pro-Russian rebels suffered a defeat yesterday that
may sound the death knell for their four-month-old uprising against the
Ukrainian government. Over the last few days, with the support of Moscow, the
rebels were again gaining ground against the Ukrainian army, but after the downing
of the Malaysia Airlines plane, their Kremlin patrons are in a seriously tight
spot.
Last night the rebels emphatically denied that they
had anything to do with the crash of the aircraft, a claim that was undermined by
Twitter posts hours before by rebel leader Igor Strelkov,
in which he boasted of shooting down a military transport plane. "In the area Torez we just hit down An-26, it's
lying somewhere in the mine "Progress" ... We warned you - do not fly
in "our sky," it states. Only when it became clear that it was a
civilian airliner did they hastily distance themselves from their triumphant
messages and delete the Tweets from Strelkov's
account.
The separatists
have anti-aircraft missiles
The rebels have denied they have weapons capable of
bringing down aircraft from that height, a claim also undermined by their own previous
messages. In late June, they reported occupying a Ukrainian army air defence base and seizing a Buk
anti-aircraft missile battery. They have a range of over 12 miles.
Over recent days, rebels along the border with Russia
have been busy shooting at Ukrainian aircraft in the area: On Tuesday they took
down an Antonov 26-transport plane, and a day later
they reported downing two Sukhoi-fighter aircraft. With
their combat actions in the border area, the rebels are trying to recover from
the defeat they suffered early last month when they were forced to give up a
number of towns, including their stronghold Slavjansk,
which they had baptised a "new Stalingrad."
The blow was so great that some rebel leaders even
began loudly complaining that they had received insufficient support from
Moscow. A few even compared Russian President Putin to Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic,
who left Bosnian Serbs in the lurch.
Putin
raised expectations among the rebels
For Putin, this is a sensitive issue. From the outset,
Moscow has encouraged the rebels by depicting the new Ukrainian government as a
collection of fascists. With his promise that he would not leave ethnic
Russians in eastern Ukraine in the lurch, Putin raised expectations among the
rebels that if necessary, he would even be willing to invade Ukraine with the
Russian army.
To betray the pro-Russian rebels would badly damage Putin's
reputation within conservative, nationalist circles. It is precisely from
within these circles that he has sought support since his return as president -
and with success. Since the annexation of Crimea, his popularity has soared,
and he is revered by nationalists as the man who can restore the lost Soviet
Empire.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
All indications are that since the fall of Slavjansk, Moscow has boosted its support of the rebels.
Through border posts that were occupied by the rebels, a stream of heavy
military equipment flowed into eastern Ukraine: from tanks and armored personnel
carriers to anti-aircraft batteries. Senior rebel representatives wore down
Moscow's welcome mat, and the People's Republic of Donetsk, as the rebels
called their area, even had time to open offices for the recruitment of
volunteers.
Moscow's
limited influence on the rebels
By encouraging the uprising in eastern Ukraine, Moscow
has sought to weaken Ukraine, but from the outset this has also posed a risk to
Russia. Despite (or perhaps as a result of) its arms deliveries, Moscow has had
a limited influence over the rebels. Gradually, the rebel movement has become a
kind of Frankenstein's monster, that listens less and less to its inventor.
As punishment for the Kremlin's stirring up of trouble
in Ukraine, the United States announced new sanctions against Russia on
Wednesday, this time on companies in the strategic energy sector and the
Russian weapons industry. This apparently hit hard in Moscow. Prime Minister
Dmitry Medvedev warned that the United States and Russia threaten to regress
back to the 1980s, while Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin,
one of Moscow's most enthusiastic rebel supporters, complained of "unfair
competition" in the international arms market.
If it is determined that the insurgents are indeed
responsible for downing the Malaysia Airlines plane, a diplomatic storm against
Moscow will undoubtedly ensue. American Senator John McCain warned that Russia
will have to pay a "damn high price," if it its henchmen had a hand
in the crash.
The Kremlin will then face a difficult choice. It can
drop the rebels, close the borders to weaponry and volunteers, and then watch the
Ukrainian army quash the revolt. That would be a bitter pill for Putin. The
alternative, however, is also unattractive: a return to the dark days of the
Cold War.
