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Jeop Bertrams, The Netherlands

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After Defanging Iran, Will the P5+1 Now Defang Itself? (Knack, Belgium)

 

"One could say that the patient work of diplomacy - the avoidance of the use of force, has succeeded. Let this be an example for other conflicts in the world. Furthermore, we might ask ourselves when the other states who were seated around the negotiating table begin reducing the numbers and role of nuclear weapons in their defense policies. Hopefully, this will be an incentive. … The only reason for installing a U.S. missile shield in Europe has always been Iran. It would be logical not to continue to install anti-missile systems and to remove the existing ones. That would also be a gesture toward Russia."

 

Dr. Tom Sauer, University of Antwerp*

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Translated By Marion Pini

 

July 16, 2015

 

The Netherlands – Knack – Original Article (Dutch)

"The nuclear deal with Iran will prevent yet another war in the Middle East," writes Professor Tom Sauer. "We might ask ourselves when the other states who were seated around the negotiating table will begin reducing the numbers and role of nuclear weapons in their defense policies."

 

Cucumber season, you say? Days ago there was a solution for Greece and now there's one for Iran. Diplomacy is in full swing - and successfully so. When diplomacy goes well it is apt for us to draw attention to it. This deal not only prevents Iran from making nuclear weapons in a short term, but it will prevent yet another war in the Middle East. Bombing Iran is the last thing the world needs.

 

After invading Iraq, many, especially in the United States (including John McCain) have called for attacking Iran. That option is now definitively closed - at least if Iran abides by the terms of the deal. Skeptics point out (rightly) the difference between words and deeds, and the fact that supporters of the negotiations still need to approve the agreement. That will certainly lead to some fireworks in the U.S. We'll have to wait and see, but the chances are real that this agreement will also be approved internally and not be blocked.

 

Extensive checks

 

In that case, the agreement between the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany on the one hand and Iran on the other will resurrect the hackneyed term "historic." What does the agreement broadly entail? Iran promises to roll back its nuclear program, which it says has always been for civilian purposes, so it will be harder, i.e. it will take longer to produce nuclear weapons in the event that Tehran decides it needs them.

 

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Iran Negotiations: A Promising Deal Achieved without War and Death (Le Monde, France)

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Nuclear weapons production is only possible with fissile material, either highly enriched uranium or plutonium, neither of which grows on trees. Uranium must be enriched and plutonium has to be reprocessed from spent nuclear reactor fuel. Both processes are cumbersome and time consuming. Iran has made serious progress over recent years, particularly in the field of uranium enrichment – so much so that within months Iran could have enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb.

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This agreement will significantly reduce the number of centrifuges as well as the stock of enriched uranium, which will extend the so-called break out time - the time needed to produce enough highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb - from three months to a year. In other words, in the event Iran decides to build nuclear weapons in the future, the international community will have one year to discover this and respond appropriately. Iran has already promised to allow extensive checks by the International Atomic Energy Agency, including at military installations.

 

80 million consumers

 

In return, the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council promise to abolish the U.N. resolutions containing economic sanctions. The more far-reaching unilateral economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and E.U. will also be eliminated as much as possible; "as much as possible" because some U.S. sanctions against Iran were introduced for reasons other than proliferation, among these for human rights violations. These will remain in place. Sanctions introduced by the U.S. Congress can only be rescinded by Congress.

 

That same Congress also has the ability to throw the entire agreement in the waste basket. A simple majority will suffice, and given the critical statements of Republicans, that is a very real risk. President Obama will be able to use his veto, which in turn can only be overruled by a two-thirds Congressional majority. That last scenario cannot be ruled out completely, and would be an affront to the Obama Administration and the rest of the world similar to the failure to ratify the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 or the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1999. Let's assume for the time being that the deal stands.

 

Many Western companies will already be rubbing their hands now that new business can be pursued in a country with 80 million consumers. Tehran will have to prepare itself for planeloads of businessmen and the Iranian and world economy can only benefit from it.

 

Losers

 

Are there no losers, then? There are indeed. Sunni Saudi Arabia can only look on in envy as (Shiite) Iran's influence in the region grows even further. It will also have to live with the idea that Iran knows how to produce nuclear weapons.

 

Then there's Israel, which also finds the deal suspect. Israel will remain the only country in the region with nuclear weapons, and it can now expect even more pressure from Arab states to give them up. One might add that this won't happen quickly and will require an overall improvement of the political climate in the Middle East, more particularly between the Arab states and Israel.

 

There is so much content about the Iran nuclear deal in the Israel press today, all we can do is give you a...

Posted by WorldMeetsUS on Wednesday, July 15, 2015

 

Republicans look on with envy

 

Furthermore, there are the domestic losers. In the United States, the Republicans will jealously watch President Obama stab another feather in his cap; and in Iran, the Revolutionary Guard will lose many of the economic privileges they acquired under economic sanctions.

 

All in all, Iran is doing a good thing: escrow accounts with $100 billion are to be made available to it again, it can resume its trade in pistachio nuts, oil and gas, and it can look forward to better integration with the world than it has seen since the Iranian Revolution. Moreover, it has built up the know-how to produce nuclear weapons. Has President Bush travelled the same diplomatic road as Obama, it might not have come this far. But counterfactuals have only limited value in international politics. That knowledge cannot be taken away - even with bombing campaigns. And Iran has been able to negotiate to not only protect its civilian nuclear energy program, but the principle of enrichment - albeit to a limited extent.

 

Improved relations with Russia?

 

In conclusion, one could say that the patient work of diplomacy - the avoidance of the use of force, has succeeded. Let this be an example for other conflicts in the world. Furthermore, we might ask ourselves when the other states who were seated around the negotiating table begin reducing the numbers and role of nuclear weapons in their defense policies. Hopefully, this will be an incentive.

 

The only reason for installing a U.S. missile shield in Europe has always been Iran. It would be logical not to continue to install anti-missile systems and to remove the existing ones. That would also be a gesture toward Russia, which has long made an issue of the nuclear danger posed by those systems. Who knows … there might even be an improvement in relations with Russia?

 

Finally, heartfelt congratulations to the E.U., which in 2003 (at first limited to Germany, France and the U.K.) had the courage to take up the diplomatic glove, as well as make a statement toward the Bush Administration, who at that time was shooting anything that moved.

 

*Dr. Tom Sauer teaches international politics at the University of Antwerp, and is author of The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative: Towards and Beyond the 2015 NPT Review Conference (MO* paper, April 2015)

 

 

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[Posted By Worldmeets.US, July 16, 2015, 9:49am]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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