The Death of 'Greater Europe': Vladimir Putin's Lost War? (Folha, Brazil)
"An item
in the Minsk II agreement has been little-commented on in media. This is the
part of the deal that leaders (presidents of Russia, Ukraine and France, and
the German chancellor) reaffirmed the dream of 'creating a common humanitarian
and economic space from the Atlantic to the Pacific.' The term seems
paradoxical in the context of a conflict pitting West against Russia over
Ukraine, and exposes an ancient division among European leaders: between those
who want to invite Russia to join common European processes; and those who want
to repel it to the north and east."
Arnaud Dubien, director of the
Franco-Russian Center for Analytics Observatoire, was
intrigued by an item in the agreements called Minsk II (on the war in
Ukraine) that has been little-commented on in media.
This is the part of the agreement that leaders who signed
the document (the presidents of Russia, Ukraine and France, and the German
chancellor) reaffirmed the dream of "creating a common humanitarian and
economic space from the Atlantic to the Pacific."
With Russia's inclusion, this is what is meant by
"Greater Europe."
Dubien thinks mention of the term,
paradoxical in the context of a conflict pitting West against Russia over
Ukraine, exposes an ancient division among European leaders: between those who
want to "invite Russia to join common European processes; and those who
want to repel it to the north and east."
In the medium and long term, this issue is more important to
stability in Europe than what happens with the Minsk Agreement, the test of
which began last Sunday (Feb.15) at the beginning of the ceasefire.
Yet there is an element missing from the equation - Vladimir
Vladimirovitch Putin. Does he want to be part of a
"Greater Europe" in which case the role of Mother Russia would
naturally diminish, or does he prefer to recreate "Novorossiya"
or New Russia, which was the designation of the empire between 1764 and 1873? A
great deal of the answer will be revealed by Putin’s behavior toward
Ukraine.
It is now obvious that although he has taken possession of
Crimea and a good chunk of the Ukraine regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, he has lost Ukraine itself.
The Ukrainian population preferred Europe to Russia, first
through street demonstrations that led to the toppling of pro-Russia President
Victor Yanukovych, and then through elections that installed the pro-European
Petro Poroshenko.
There will be no way to reverse this if Putin, with his
support for separatists in the Ukrainian east, destabilizes Ukraine for the
long-term. In that event the impression would be that opting for Europe was a
mistake.
After all, as visiting European Council on Foreign Relations
researcher Gustav
Gresse wrote, "Ukraine's financial and
economic situation is deteriorating faster than Russia's."
Posted
By Worldmeets.US
In any event, Ukraine has one advantage: it may in theory
count on the support of Europe, at least financially, since military support
has been excluded.
On the other hand, professor of political science at Rutgers
University Alexander Motylsays
Russia is backtracking.
"Thanks to record-high energy prices that accompanied
his assumption of power in 1999, Putin was able to have enough money to raise
the country’s standard of living, strengthen the Russian military and keep his
cronies happy." [The so talked about oligarchs].
Now, however, with the fall in oil prices and Western
sanctions, "The Russian economy is on the downswing."
Or to put it another way, Putin may not even be able to
sustain the old Russia let alone rebuild the New Russia. All in all, there is
much more at stake in Ukraine than Donetsk and Lugansk.
Clovis Rossi is a special correspondent and
member of the Folha editorial board, is a winner of the Maria Moors
Cabot award (USA) and is a member of the Foundation for a New Ibero-American Journalism. His column appears on
Thursdays and Sundays on page 2 and on Saturdays in the World Notebook
section. He is the author, among other works, of Special Envoy: 25 Years
Around the World and What is Journalism?
