South Korea Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Jung Seung-jo believes an agreement between the U.S. and South Korea will prevent new North Korean provocations. But will it also give the North something it has always wanted - direct communications with the United States?
The United States and South Korea have signed an agreement which
stipulates that in the event of a limited conflict, such as the shelling of Yeonpyeong
Island by North Korea in 2010, America will involve itself early on. Since
operational control is currently divided, with the ROK
military in control for limited conflicts during peace time and U.S. forces
taking the lead in the event of all-out war, this change is expected to give
even more authority to the American military.
On Mar. 22, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Jung Seung-jo, and Commander of the Combined U.S. and ROK Forces James Thurman, signed a plan detailing how combined
forces would respond to limited provocations by the North, according to Joint
Chiefs Press Officer EomHyo-shik.
“This is a plan for responding to limited provocations, with
Republic of Korea forces in the lead and U.S. forces providing support. Since
North Korea’s artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, we
have been discussing this issue,” said Eom. “This
plan describes the process for discussing what combined action the U.S. and
South Korea should take if North Korea makes another provocation, and contains
measures for strong and decisive responses.”
The core of the plan is to allow early U.S. military
intervention, even in limited engagements during peacetime when South Korean
forces have military control, on the condition that ROK
forces request the intervention. According to previous agreements, if a limited
conflict broke out during peacetime, ROK forces would
respond independently, while U.S. forces, after discussing the issue with their
ROK counterparts, would decide on their own whether or
not to intervene.
“This plan will have the effect of deterring North Korean provocations,”
Jung said. “And if Pyongyang does make a provocation, they will bitterly regret
it.”
As was said, the origins of the plan can be traced back to North
Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in November,
2010. At the time, South Korea launched its most powerful F-15 fighters, but because
of the regulations governing skirmishes during a ceasefire, they were forced to
return to base without retaliating. That is, the commander of combined U.S.-ROK forces (the U.N. commander) had to consent before
F-15s fighters could have attacked North Korea.
With this new plan, South Korea obtains stronger
psychological and physical deterrence against North Korean provocations. North
Korea has often launched limited skirmishes in the West Sea, which is
controlled by South Korean forces. These have included naval battles and the Yeonpyeong bombardment.
Now, if North Korea plans a military provocation as it has
in the past, it will have to bear in mind that U.S. forces may be involved from
the beginning.
If ROK-U.S. forces are to jointly respond
even during limited peacetime engagements, it raises higher the status of American
forces in Korea. It follows, then, that if U.S. forces become involved at an
early stage, it is possible that they could effectively exercise complete
operational control. This may even lead to renewed discussions about the wisdom
of restoring wartime operational control to the South Korean military in 2015.
From the perspective of U.S. forces, this allows them a
degree of control over the risk that a local conflict could turn into something
worse. If, as Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin and other
senior military leaders have directed, South Korean forces respond to even a limited
North Korean provocation by “striking against the source of the attack, support
forces, and the commanders who ordered it,” the possibility of an escalation increases.
It is believed that now, at the outset, the U.S. military would deliberate with
ROK forces to carefully control the nature and extent
of the skirmish.
“This plan means that even peacetime operational control by
South Korea would fall under U.S.
restrictions, giving the United States even greater influence over the
situation on the Korean Peninsula,” said Kim Jong-dae,
editor of the magazine Defense 21+.
“While North Korea may feel pressured by the idea of early
intervention by the United States, this plan will further reinforce Pyongyang's
assumption that it can deal with the U.S. directly [without the involvement of South
Korea].”
