China Cannot
Afford North Korean Fukushima (Global Times, People's Republic of China)
In order to
put the North Korean nuclear genie back in its bottle, should China protect Pyongyang under its nuclear umbrella while forcing the regime to give up its
nuclear program? Writing for China's state-run Global Times, columnist Zhu Zhangping
writes that whatever benefit Beijing derives from keeping the Kim Jong-un regime in office, the danger of allowing him The
Bomb is too great.
North Korea's constant rhetoric of war since the latest U.N.
condemnations of its nuclear program may seem ridiculous to most people. But far
from being insane, it has its own logic.
The third nuclear test, a satellite launch last December,
and Pyongyang's recent overwrought language on joint U.S.-South Korea military
exercises, all reflect the hopes of Kim Jong-un to
kill two birds with one stone.
Internationally, North Korea seeks to drag the United States
back to negotiation table, and gain additional U.S. aid by playing the nuclear
card. Despite North Korea's tests and warnings, during former NBA star Dennis
Rodman's visit to the North in February, Kim expressed an eagerness to receive
a phone call from U.S. President Barack Obama.
Domestically, Kim is working to consolidate his leadership
through a series of tough actions against America and South Korea.
The shake-up in the North Korean military after Kim was
sworn in as the top leader last July, with Vice Marshal Ri
Yong-ho relieved of duty, reflects a power struggle in the core leadership.
The decades-long "military first" policy has helped the military grow
into the mightiest interest group in North Korea, the support of which Kim
desperately needs.
Kim also knows that because of China, the is little likelihood
that North Korea will suffer the fate of Iraq or Libya. The Sino-North
Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty signed in 1961 declares
that the two countries will "guarantee to immediately adopt all necessary
measures to oppose any country or coalition of countries that might attack
either nation."
Hence to avoid being involved in any unnecessary military
confrontation with trading partners like the United States and South Korea, China
will do its best to prevent any military attack on North Korea, and avoid the
huge economic and human costs that the Korean War entailed.
North Korea still holds strategic importance for China,
which is a point that is underestimated by Chinese scholars who advocate
abandoning Pyongyang. North Korea continues to act as a buffer. If it collapses
and Kim Jong-un is replaced by a pro-U.S. regime, it would
pave the way for a redeployment of U.S. forces from South Korea to the China
border, which, given the lack of Sino-U.S. military trust, would be a major security
concern.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
China must also keep its Northeast stable. A flood of North
Korean refugees would create chaos in the region and disrupt an economy that aspires
to retake its former place as China's industrial heartland.
For these reasons, a top priority for China is to ensure the
survival of the Kim regime and keep North Korea from collapsing. But should
China continue to back North Korea no matter what it does? And even if North
Korea's nuclear development is targeted only at the United States, its nuclear
programs bring huge risks to China - not the United States.
The third nuclear test in February was conducted just over
100 kilometers from China's northeast border. Although Chinese authorities
appeased the public by swearing that the mountains on the border would effectively
prevent radiation spreading to China, the possibility that nuclear leakage could
pollute underground water supplies cannot be ruled out.
Groundwater safety is not only a concern when it comes to
Northeast China's drinking water supply, but for food safety and even food
security.
As early as 2010, China's central government issued a
document pointing out that the Northeast should be developed up as a pillar for
national food security. In 2011, total grain output for the Northeast reached
108 million tons, accounting for one-fifth of the nation's total.
The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan is the latest
lesson. Fukushima Prefecture, where agriculture was a key industry, is highly
contaminated and food production has been severely impacted. China cannot
afford to risk a repetition of the Fukushima disaster in the Northeast.
What China should do now is offer North Korea
protection under its nuclear umbrella, just as the U.S. does for Japan and
South Korea, while forcing it to accept China's advice and abandon its nuclear
program. China faces bigger risks than any other country in the event of a
fourth nuclear test.
*Zhu Zhangping is an independent observer of international
affairs.
