U.S. and China Must Resist Urge to Meddle
after Kim Jong-il's Death
"The Obama Administration might be tempted to take advantage of Kim’s death by seeking a 'dramatic' turning point before the U.S. presidential election next year. But if the U.S. government makes the wrong assessment, it could deal a critical blow to Obama’s reelection hopes. ... And if
Beijing attempts to hastily show off its ever-stronger influence over North Korea,
it will only backfire."
The death of North Korean
leader Kim Jong-il is expected to turn the tide on the Korean Peninsula as well
as Northeast Asia. The international community, particularly the United States,
China, Russia and Japan, are watching the situation closely. The “big four”
should treat stabilizing the peninsula as a top priority by closely cooperating
with the South Korean government. A sudden power vacuum triggered by Kim's
death must not be permitted to threaten peace and stability.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
The death of Kim Jong-il marks
a great watershed in our ties with the difficult regime. Right now a dark
cloud hangs over the transfer of power to his heir, Kim Jong-un, and it is
impossible to rule out an internal power struggle or military provocation - either
intentional or accidental. And yet another terrible scenario may unfold: a
severe economic crisis coupled with internal turmoil could lead to the rapid disintegration
of the regime. In close collaboration with the South Korean government, our neighbors
must prepare for any eventuality.
But above all, the roles of
the United States and China are vital. The Obama Administration might be
tempted to take advantage of Kim’s death by seeking a “dramatic” turning point before
the U.S. presidential election next year. But if the U.S. government makes the
wrong assessment, it could deal a critical blow to Obama’s reelection hopes. The
United States must deal wisely and carefully with the situation.
We also hope that China, the
only country with real influence over North Korea - will exercise restraint and
resist the temptation to take advantage of the situation. We urge China to show
a calm and mature attitude toward the crisis by respecting international law. If
Beijing attempts to hastily show off its ever-stronger influence over North Korea,
it will only backfire. We oppose any moves by China to capitalize on Kim’s
death. The 75 million inhabitants of the peninsula will not tolerate outside
meddling. The only parties in question here are the two Koreas.
Kim Jong-il died without resolving
the issue of the country’s nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang and Washington
were scheduled to meet in Beijing to discuss America's new proposal for
providing food aid in exchange for a suspension of the North’s uranium
enrichment program. But that for the time being, that will be a difficult
conversation to pick up again.
Like
father, like son: Kim Jong-un, North Korea's new leader,
inspects
a video factory in September.
The death of Kim Il-sung in
1994 led to bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang that led to a
precedent-setting Agreed
Framework. The death of Kim Jong-il may open opportunities on the nuclear
issue and reform. Seoul, together with the rest of the world, must strive to
lead Pyongyang on the path toward openness and wisdom. Whether these parties
will succeed in their efforts depends on how they cope with the situation. The
death of Kim Jong-il may be an opportunity - but it may also be the beginning
of a new trial.
