North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un with
some of his military
advisers: Ratcheting up tensions may be the only way for
his authoritarian regime to hold on to power.
Brought to a Rapid
Boil: North Korea Threatens Attack on America (Polityka,
Poland)
"The more dogged
the regime becomes, the more grotesque the impression it makes. Can this
buffoonery be taken seriously? Unfortunately, it must be ... Nothing creates
disciplined mobilization better more
than a powerful enemy - the same enemy that has been there for decades. That is
why the regime must gradually raise the tension to prevent the nation from losing
fear of the enemy."
It is enough to know that artillery could turn Seoul
into a sea of fire, and that missiles could fly toward America. Military
analysts agree that targets across the South and in Japan are in North Korean
range. But shelling U.S. territory is not an option, unless the missiles are
fired from ships.
Predictions of imminent war have been heard for the past few
weeks. They were preceded by the successful launch of a satellite into orbit
and another nuclear test, and augmented South Korea-U.S. military exercises. But
the more dogged the regime becomes, the more grotesque the impression it makes.
Can this buffoonery be taken seriously? Unfortunately, it must be, first of all
because of the size of the North's arsenal. And then because of
unpredictability of its leaders. Even so, it is fairly easy to predict the
outcome of a war in which the Pyongyang regime would have the least to gain.
That is why one can reasonably continue to assume that the current crisis will
eventuate in nothing but rhetoric and simply blow over.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
That doesn't mean that the Korean problem ceases. On the
contrary, especially as the new leader in no peace dove, and in the coming
years the North is also likely to improve its missile technology enough to
strike targets in the United States. Its Chinese sponsors, the North's main
backers, look increasingly skeptically at their Pyongyang comrades. Although Beijing
supports the sanctions imposed on Korea, it is lacks sufficient enthusiasm to
enforce them.
The problem and the fact, is that North Korea is
undergoing major change. The country is becoming increasingly open - there is
no other option. In the era of the universal Internet, which is accessible to
only a few in North Korea, it is impossible to build an effective dam against
globalization. It will blunt the knife of propaganda and make it much more
difficult to rule.
But the current crisis, in addition to deterring potential
aggressors, is also mobilizing society, which was brought up to defend a besieged
fortress. And nothing creates disciplined mobilization bettermore than a powerful enemy - the same enemy
that has been there for decades. That is why the regime must gradually raise
the tension to prevent the nation from losing fear of the enemy.
*JędrzejWiniecki is
journalist of foreign affairs with Polityka. He
writes about politics and society in Europe, Asia and Africa - and from time to
time, of birds.
