Obama's Weakness Opens Floodgate of Mideast Trouble (Infobae, Argentina)
"The reality we face is simply the most striking Western
weakness ever seen in the Middle East. So much so, that Moscow has dealt Washington
and Brussels, but in particular President Obama, an unforgettable diplomatic
beating, not only regarding the Syrian crisis, but also when it comes to Iran.
... It's clear that when it comes to both the Syria crisis and the Iranian nuclear controversy, the deception and fraud laid out by the Russians has been a trap that President Obama walked right into, pulling the majority of European leaders right in with him. Now it's too late for regrets."
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu presses the Putin flesh in an attempt to alter the Kremlin's position on Iran, Nov. 20: It seems that Putin is the 'go-to man' for today's Middle East.
Call
it what you like: "Russian initiative or U.S. retreat." Whatever you call
it, this reality handed Bashar Al-Assad a miraculous
diplomatic agreement in which he promised to give up his chemical weapons, thus
avoiding a military strike that would have meant the fall of his regime. Likewise
is the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has demonstrated the
professionalism of its diplomats as being a cut above the current "American
and European diplomatic amateurism."
The
reality we face is simply the most striking Western weakness ever seen in the
Middle East. So much so, that Moscow has dealt Washington and Brussels, but in
particular President Obama, an unforgettable diplomatic beating, not only
regarding the Syrian crisis, but also when it comes to Iran, which, with
Russian diplomatic support, is recovering through the lifting of economic
sanctions, is continuing its nuclear program, and in terms of Iranian regional
political consolidation.
During
meetings in Geneva, it seemed up to the last minute that we would find - at
last - a responsible West negotiating with Tehran. Many expected a firm Western
position in defense of its regional interests such as security and
non-proliferation, but that is precisely what failed to happen.
For
a second time, Russia played the "diplomacy card" and wrapped President
Obama and European leaders who have proven irresolute and indecisive in taking
positions on this complicated and controversial conflict with Tehran. The
Russians opened a new front that allows both Assad and the Khamenei-Rouhani regime to curb the chances of a military attack,
and the economic strangulation imposed by U.N. sanctions that Tehran was
subjected to. Meanwhile, Moscow's invaluable assistance bought more time for
Assad to continue committing crimes, and for Iran to continue its nuclear
energy program.
Assad's
behavior is typical of types of tricks and deceit to which the Syrian regime has
shown throughout its history. Assad agreed to dispose of his chemical weapons
or place them under international supervision. This strategy is not new, and can
be likened to the creation of the Special Tribunal
for Lebanon, when Assad was under investigation for the murder of former Lebanese
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. In this case, as a last
resort, Assad announced his agreement merely to delay the investigation and
take the oxygen out the court's efforts. He later broke that agreement, and
with the passage of time, it was buried under the many other concerns of the international
community.
In
the case of Iran, Persian diplomats have for the past five years managed to buy
time during which, in the face of Western diplomacy, Tehran has managed to refurbish
old centrifuges and obtain new ones, with the clear objective of enriching
uranium to hitherto unforeseen levels, according to IAEA
technicians.
The
Russians have sold the Americans an illusion about Syria and are doing the same
with the Iranian nuclear dossier. Washington hasn't had the reflexes to respond
quickly. In the opinion of his Arab and Israeli allies, it's too late for President
Obama. He's lost everything but his short - especially after shooting himself
in the foot by asking for a vote in Congress on possible Syrian intervention,
with results that the world already knows.
It's
clear that when it comes to both the Syria crisis and the Iranian nuclear controversy,
the deception and fraud laid out by the Russians has been a trap that President
Obama walked right into, pulling the majority of European leaders right in with
him. Now it's too late for regrets.
The
Russian initiative, or rather the game of Moscow, demonstrates that the security
of the entire region is at risk as a consequence of Obama’s weakness, while
confirming that once again, the Russians have become the most important players
in the region. It is clear that Russia, Iran, and Assad, have learned the
lesson of Egypt: Washington is always a step behind, and all one needs to do is
lead the way.
Russia
is also helping normalize relations between Assad and the international
community from the perspective of the Syrian crisis as a humanitarian crisis
related to security, which includes fears of national fragmentation. The image
that Moscow is working to show the world is that the Syrian crisis goes beyond the
issue of chemical weapons, and this is something that Arabs should take into
account, particularly because they now face one of two options: a) accept Russia's game in Syria and live
with Assad, even if the impact of this would be at least as terrible as before,
or b) turn the tables on Assad and
Russia.
The
latter option would require the imposition of a new geopolitical reality that would
lead to a political solution to the Syria crisis, for example, through the U.N.
Security Council under Chapter
VII of the U.N. Charter. Failing this, it would mean that Arabs would
accept Russia as a new regional superpower, which is something that will only
benefit Iranian plans for nuclear and political expansion at the expense of Saudi
Arabia - with all the negative impact this implies for regional nuclear
proliferation. In such a case, nuclear proliferation is bound to climb to unpredictable
levels, allowing the generation of a crisis without a solution.
In
this context, the fate of Assad will be negligible, but the region will burn
like never before.
