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The Unintended Consequences of a Nuclear-Defanged Iran (Alquds Alarabi, U.K)


"Iran, after abandoning its military nuclear program, will be able to focus its efforts on asserting its influence in the region and being a regional power - at the expense of its main rival: Saudi Arabia. ... The easing of sanctions will increase the wealth and power of Iran, which will redound to the benefit of its regional allies. In response, the Gulf States are closing ranks and offering greater support to their allies in the face of rising Iranian influence."




Translated By Lina Barakat-Masroujeh


November 28, 2013


United Kingdom - Alquds Alarabi - Original Article (Arabic)

Iranian newspapers talk of retention of nuclear rights and defeating sanctions, but behind the propaganda, a nuclear deal with the allies is likely to boost Iranian influence significantly.

BBC NEWS VIDEO: Iranian president tars in Persian version of Obama's 'Yes We Can' video, Nov. 28, 00:01:00RealVideo

The accelerating political and security developments in the Middle East warn of newly-forged coalitions that are unfortunately sectarian-based.


Take the regional confrontation over Syria, where the opposition is backed by the Gulf States, primarily Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh has launched a savage media campaign against Iran based on its interference in Syria. Meanwhile, Tehran has adopted the language of the Syrian regime, which accuses Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, of funding "terrorism" in Syria.


This, associated with the newest development - Iran-U.S. rapprochement, after 33 years of conflict - looks likely to transform regional alliances and relations in the region, particularly with the Gulf States feeling marginalized after the accord, and the disclosure that it was preceded by months of secret talks between Washington and Tehran.


Iran, after abandoning its military nuclear program, will be able to focus its efforts on asserting its influence in the region and being a regional power - at the expense of its main rival: Saudi Arabia.


The easing of sanctions will increase the wealth and power of Iran, which will redound to the benefit of its regional allies. In response, the Gulf States are closing ranks and offering greater support to their allies in the face of rising Iranian influence.

Posted By Worldmeets.US


This coincides with twin suicide bombing attacks in Beirut by the al-Qaeda-linked Abdullah Azzam Brigades that targeted the Iranian Embassy last Tuesday. The attack killed and wounding scores of people, amongst whom the Embassy’s cultural attaché. Noteworthy was the response of Hezbullah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, who described the attack as an attempt to compensate for the series of setbacks suffered by its [Gulf] adversaries, the Syria issue being one. This was a clear allusion to Saudi Arabia.


The bombings and subsequent bombings near the Saudi border by the so-called al-Mukhtar Army, which is known for its links to Iran, portend a new upwelling of sectarian tension.


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Although the Syrian revolution wasn't spurred by Assad being a Sunni leader, the support he enjoys from Shiíte forces [Iran] while in a confrontation with armed militants linked to al-Qaeda [Sunni] paints a particularly sectarian picture, which is reinforcing sectarian tension and polarization.


So the conflict in Syria, militarily, let alone politically irreconcilable, and the [U.S.-Iran] nuclear accord, create a regional system defined by a Shiite axis led by Iran that includes Syria, Hezbullah and Iraq; and a Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia that includes most Sunni majority countries. In view of the situation in Bahrain, and the intervention by Iran and al-Qaeda that have so far prevented a satisfactory settlement of disputes in places like Yemen, tension and turmoil is likely to now spread to the Gulf, fulfilling many of the predictions that have been made in recent years.


Although the goal of the nuclear accord, namely preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, is clear, Iran-U.S. rapprochement raises concerns in many Arab capitals, especially in the Gulf, since its ultimate destination and the manner in which it will be employed remain unknown.

International New York Times

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Iran has nominated itself to play a regional role that coincides with America's desire to alleviate the burdens of its strategy of direct involvement by relying more on regional allies capable of being deputized. And all this while the Arab World is going through a period of transition and uncertainty. Yet the circumstances that qualified the Shah of Iran to be policeman of the Gulf no longer exist. Granting such status to an Iran under the "Guardianship of Islamic Jurists" is simply not possible.


However, should Arabs, especially in the Gulf, deal with the variables of the current situation with greater, more flexible and cohesive statesmanship, at least it will be possible to limit their losses.


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Posted By Worldmeets.US Nov. 28, 2013, 06:11pm



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