MH17: Dutch Should Avoid America's Post-911 Reaction (de Volkskrant, The Netherlands)
"Hesitation and caution long dominate until,
after a particularly dramatic event, one is forced to make a grander gesture
than one wants to or can. ... While the U.S. had previously paid too little attention to
Muslim extremism and the causes thereof, President Bush then felt compelled to
make a gesture of dramatic scale - particularly to ensure that the victims of
the attacks hadn't died 'for nothing.' ... Few dare to say it: in a way, the hopeless tragedies in Afghanistan and Iraq haven't made the loss of 3,000 lives on September 11 any less pointless."
History teaches that an
overreaction can be more harmful than the incident itself, writes Louis Pessers. 'Do not make demands that in any case, will lead
to war.'
Exactly a
century ago, Austria-Hungary, which had just lost its archduke in an attack, delivered
an ultimatum to Serbia. It demanded its full cooperation in an investigation of
pro-Serb separatists, who might have planned the archduke's murder.
Moreover,
it was demanded that Serbia closely monitor its borders for the smuggling of
weapons and explosives that could be used in the separatist struggle. The ultimatum
was rejected and Europe slipped, almost naturally, into the First World War.
Although
parallels with current tensions following the attack on Flight MH17 seem
striking, a comparison with the First World War is obviously wrong. The main
difference is probably that today's European political order in no way
resembles the very delicate balance of 1914.
Yet on closer
inspection, there is a striking similarity that characterizes almost every
conflict: the wrong dosage of firmness. Hesitation and caution long dominate until,
after a particularly dramatic event, one is forced to make a grander gesture
than one wants to or can. The ultimatum imposed on Serbia a century ago
provides a striking illustration: the demands of the Austrian government were
so severe that it would "come to war anyway."
A more
recent example is the American response to the attacks of September 11, 2001.
While the U.S. had previously paid too little attention to Muslim extremism and
the causes thereof, President Bush then felt compelled to make a gesture of
dramatic scale - particularly to ensure that the victims of the attacks hadn't
died "for nothing." Afghanistan was invaded and then Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein was presented with an ultimatum that, according to the
historically proven method, had to lead to war. Few dare to say it: in a way, the hopeless tragedies in Afghanistan and Iraq haven't made the loss of 3,000 lives on September 11 any less pointless.
Over the
last few days, there have been increasing calls for "a fist" on the
part of Prime Minister Rutte or Europe. After strong
words from the U.S. and Australia, one wonders why the Netherlands, as the worst
affected country, has made no strong demands on President Putin. For example,
that Russia immediately cease all (direct or indirect) support for the
separatists. The likelihood that a Dutch or European fist could move Putin to make
concessions is limited. And as far as American and Australian vigor is
concerned: at a distance and not bound by any significant commercial interests,
it is easier to use big words.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
All this
is not to say that the Netherlands shouldn't adopt an active stance. The
stories of obstruction by local "authorities" and the tinkering with
evidence and personal effects are outrageous. The international community should
make every effort to put a stop to this as soon as possible.
In other
respects, Europe must learn from this tragic event, particularly that Russia is
an unpredictable neighbor upon which it is better not to be, at least as little
as possible, dependent. It has often been said: alternatives to Russian gas
should be developed as quickly as possible. The suspension of the South Stream
project (a new Russian pipeline to Southern Europe which would only increase that
dependence) would be an important step.
As
tempers rise, however, public opinion may soon demand a different kind of vigor:
one that does more justice to the emotions of the moment. Republican Senator
John McCain has said that he's in favor of the United States supplying weapons
to the Ukrainian army. That is indeed quite another language from that of our prime
minister. It is precisely this blunt, incorrect dosage of
firmness that the affected countries should guard against. When the call for a
fist becomes a matter of competitive bidding, the comparison with 1914 seems
less innocent than it did at first glance.
