Why a Libyan
Cease-Fire is in the Interests of All Sides
Is it possible that in this case at least, the current Beijing government's version of China's middle way is best for Libya? This editorial from China's state-run Global Times lays out a convincing case for why it is time for a laying down of weapons and the launching of talks, leading to a safe exit for Qaddafi and a process that puts Libyans on a track toward genuine nationhood.
Qaddafi has resisted more
than ten days of air raids and recaptured two cities, setting back Western plans
to rapidly subdue him. Some cities have repeatedly changed hands, indicating
that neither Qaddafi nor the forces that oppose him have what it takes to quickly
dispatch the other. Taking down Qaddafi is proving much more difficult than the
West had anticipated.
It was revealed on March 31
that MoussaKoussa, Qaddafi's competent foreign minister, had
fled to London. Western media hailed this as a sign that Qaddafi's regime is
"crumbling." But in fact the possibility of a breakthrough is not on
the horizon.
It is time for all sides to confront
reality and seriously consider the possibility of a complete cease-fire. It is now
unlikely that Qaddafi will regain a complete hold over the country, and continued
Western military intervention, which in any case doesn't comply with U.N.
Security Council Resolution 1973, will result in a more serious splintering
of the global community, including among Western countries. This will bring
great risk to the United States, Britain and France. Arranging a ceasefire so and
initiating political negotiations is the most practical and realistic option
for addressing the humanitarian situation in Libya.
Prior to the involvement of
the international community, a miscarriage of justice occurred, leading to brash
intervention by the West. In the past month or so, Qaddafi and opposition
forces have been on a fateful roller coaster rise. A comprehensive cease-fire will
reduce the cost to the two parties, which continue to take the greatest risks. Now,
although all sides are somewhat hesitant to continue fighting, it also appears too sudden to have cease-fire, even though to varying degrees, all stand to benefit.
It should be clear to the
West that a cease-fire would be no blessing for Qaddafi. The political landscape
in the Middle East has changed. Libya is now completely altered. After a
cease-fire, things will not be as they were. With a process of political
negotiation, Libya will reflect the Middle East's newly-emerging political reality.
If the fighting continues,
the weight of the additional bombs dropped by the West will bring a decreasing rate
of return. Whatever benefit they may have resulted in has already been reaped.
Following this course any further and hoping for progress will be like trying
to wring the last drops of water out of a damp towel, and will make it even more difficult
for the "New Libya" to emerge from its current chaos.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
All factions in Libya should
understand that if the fighting continues, Libya will become very similar to
Afghanistan, and possibly worse. The circumstances for the Qaddafi regime have
changed, and considering the complexity of Libya's tribes, things that cannot be
achieved by talks will be equally difficult to achieve with war. And even if war
appears to bring momentary progress, it will likely prove ephemeral.
The contents of the peace
talks should be extensive, and include the personal fate of Qaddafi. The West
has advocated exile for Qaddafi. If they are serious, they should now start
paving the way for it, instead of continuing with air raids and intimidation,
which is obviously is not conducive to achieving this goal.
The West should give up its
plan to oust Qaddafi by force in pursuit of a victory for Western ideology, because
the situation in the Middle East is far more complex than whether it is democratic
or not. The issue now is that the world's attention is focused on Libya, and
the more attention it gets, the more the Western powers are drawn into holding an
extreme stance. And the more extreme their stand, the more air strikes they
must launch to ensure that things end with respectable results. However, in
order to do this, the West will have to raise the stake further, thus fully
breaking with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973. At this rate, the cost of
achieving final victory, won't be worth paying.
The fact that the Qaddafi
regime is still standing has thoroughly exposed how clumsy the first steps of
the West have been, and any further action meant simply to prove it is right
will prove meaningless. The reality is that the West is utterly incapable of
achieving "perfect victory" in Libya.
China should try and promote a
cease-fire and political negotiations in Libya, but it will be difficult for
China to do so alone. China should consider communicating with Russia, India,
Turkey, Brazil and African Union states to select a suitable mediator. If China
does so, it may not be successful. But such a lack of success doesn't
necessarily mean failure. Negative evaluations of failed mediators have been
historically small, so the risk of the attempt can be limited.
Most of the Arab League
countries hold of harsh attitude toward Qaddafi, but that doesn't mean they
favor a Libyan war. So there is little need to worry that they would oppose
mediation.
