In Egypt, the 'Mother of All Battles' is Still to Come
"No
noise is louder than the sound of change - even the sound of bullets. … Violence is the first answer of the system,
and so the danger to the population is fated to escalate, whether the situation
is to end with reform, the president stepping down, or the cessation of
hereditary rule."
No
noise is louder than the sound of change - even the sound of bullets. The Tunisian
revolution isn't the only thing that has filled the calendar of the Arab world with
days of rage. Some of it is the monstrous rage in the street. Another is
repressed anger - no one knows in which capital it might explode next. For
example, in Cairo and other Egyptian cities and provinces, a regime that took over
30 years ago has generated massive protests calling for its head. In Yemen, demonstrators
in the capital are demanding the head of our leader, who has held the
presidency for 32 years. Meanwhile, the Southern Movement is calling for
secession from the North, which has plunged into a war against the Houthis
for the past six years. In Jordan, protesters are calling for the resignation
of the government and the implementation of political and economic reforms.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
[Editor's
Note: The author refers to a militant Shiite movement in North Yemen, which
many suspect is funded and encouraged by Tehran. In the South, the Southern
Movement is agitating for succession, and there are suspicions that it, too, is
backed by Iran].
But
all eyes are on Egypt, with its fires and clashes, and where Hosni Mubarak, in
his capacity as military ruler and in accordance with the Emergency Law in effect since 1981, has resorted to a curfew.
In terms of Middle East strategic calculations, Egypt is of the highest geopolitical
importance. One can't compare Egypt's situation to that of Tunisia, because
change in Tunisia isn't of a kind that has an impact on such calculations. While
change in Egypt is having an impact on the entire Arab world, it also affects
the situation in Israel and its peace treaty with Egypt, as well as American
influence in the region, and the positions of certain forces (Arab moderates)
in countering Iranian influence.
When
the protests began in Tunisia and the government rushed to suppress them, the
question on everyone's mind was: where does America and the army stand? The
answer was made clear. President Obama's administration went with change and
abandoned its ally, who had become like burned paper. The professional military,
which had no political role, refused to suppress the protesters and protect Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. He was allowed to flee.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
[Editor's
Note: Ben Ali is now in Saudi Arabia, and Interpol has issued a warrant for his
arrest].
But
in Egypt, circumstances and attitudes are different. The army, which has descended
to the streets, is the same army that carried out the 1952 July Revolution and then remained attached to the regime's
major party. It has been its protector, and has had the legitimacy to promote
presidents from its ranks. As for President Obama, he gave two pieces of advice
to President Mubarak: one, previously, about the need for political and
economic reform, and the other, more recently, that violence is not the solution.
But
implementing reforms was difficult for the Egyptian president, who the
opposition says is concerned only about securing the succession of his heir,
Gamal. Violence is the first answer of the system, and so the danger to the
population is fated to escalate, whether the situation is to end with reform,
the president stepping down, or the cessation of hereditary rule.
