Brazil President Rousseff
and Cuba dictator Raul Castro at the ribbon cutting
for Cuba's Mariel port. Dilma's predecessor
funded the port based on Obama's
assurance that the U.S. would lift the Cuba embargo by the end of his first term.
Now with Brazil in Cuba's corner, a showdown
looms at the Americas Summit.
U.S. Republican
Triumph Plunges Americas Summit into Crisis (Folha, Brazil)
"The so-called
Bolivarian countries have already announced that they would only participate in
the Summit of the Americas in April if Cuba were invited, to which the U.S. is
opposed. … President DilmaRousseff
supports inviting Cuba, which means she will support a de facto 'disinvite' to
Obama precisely when, in theory, an attempted rapprochement between the two
governments would be under way following the Edward Snowden episode. … This
situation existed before the Republican victory, but after it, things have
gotten far more difficult for Obama."
With Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress,
the main problem for Brazil in terms of U.S. relations should not be primarily
in the bilateral sphere.
It will center on Cuba.
Let me explain. In April 2015 will be held the 7th Summit of
the Americas, a meeting of all countries in the Americas from which Cuba is
excluded.
It happens that the so-called Bolivarian countries have
already announced, at the previous summit, that they would only participate in
the next meeting if Cuba were invited, to which the U.S. is opposed.
If the U.S. insists on a veto, it will lead to the following
deadlock: either President Barack Obama, indirectly
expelled from an originally North American initiative, or Latin American
countries - will not attend the summit.
Where does Brazil land in this story? Easy: DilmaRousseff supports inviting Cuba,
which means she will support a “disinvite” to Obama precisely when, in theory, an
attempted rapprochement between the two governments would be well under way following
the Edward Snowden episode.
Of course, this situation existed before the Republican
victory, but after it, things have gotten far more difficult for Obama.
It happens that, in his first meeting with [former
President] LuísInácio Lula
da Silva, Obama announced his intention to remove the
embargo on Cuba by the end of his [first] term. On that basis, Lula’s government
decided to invest in Cuban port of Mariel, which would only be of value for use
to export to United States. That would only become possible - and be a very good
deal - assuming a lifting of the sanctions.
Obama was unable (or unwilling) to lift the embargo, but he might
be tempted to do so if there were less domestic resistance to the initiative. The
victorious Republican Party, which regards the embargo as a matter of honor, renders
this unlikely.
Difficulties with Cuba also mean difficulties with the
so-called Bolivarian countries, namely Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and
Nicaragua - all fans of the Castroist regime.
Again, its relations with Brazil reflect, in a way, how the U.S.
has outsourced the monitoring of South America.
This can be shown, as if it were still necessary, by the
fact that UNASUR [Union of
South American Nations], which excludes the U.S., that is trying to mediate
[the civil unrest] in Venezuela, instead of the Organization of American
States, which includes the U.S.
It is to be expected that with their new majority, the
Republicans will pressure Venezuela - with which Brazil maintains close
relations.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
Apart from political issues there is the trade side:
Republicans are traditionally less protectionist than Democrats.
So it will soon be easier to get through Congress the free
trade agreements that are being negotiated.
Brazil, already isolated on the matter, will be further
marginalized.
With all the economic complications lying ahead, diplomatic
noises are something Dilma could thoroughly do
without.
Clovis Rossi is a special
correspondent and member of the Folha
editorial board, is a winner of the Maria Moors Cabot award (USA) and
is a member of the Foundation for a New Ibero-American
Journalism. His column appears on Thursdays and Sundays on page 2 and on
Saturdays in the World Notebook section. He is the author, among other works,
of Special Envoy: 25 Years Around the World and What is Journalism?
