Midterm
Fallout: Obama Weakened on Iran and the Global Stage (Le Monde, France)
"Convinced
that America is a manifestation of 'the good,' Republicans need a force that
embodies absolute evil. They have found it in the person of the Islamic
Republic of Iran. They will do everything to oppose an agreement with Iran on
the nuclear issue, which would foreshadow the beginning of a normalization of
relations between Washington and Tehran. Never mind if such a move would be one
of the rare prospects for stability in the region. On this issue, as on the
issue of Israel-Palestine negotiation, Republicans are aligned with the
positions of the Netanyahu government."
Barack Obama can look to history for a bit of comfort. After
all, what has happened to him – a resounding defeat in the midterm elections –
is not unexceptional! The party holding the White House is generally punished
in this ballot. Still, faced with a Congress entirely in the hands of the
Republicans, both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the president retains
the right of veto.
Nevertheless, the day after the vote on Tuesday, November 4,
Mr. Obama appeared to be singularly weakened internally, which will not fail to
have an impact externally. He will find his ability to conduct foreign policy
as he wishes diminished, as well as his weight on the international stage.
That's not good news.
The Republican majority does not have the power, nor doubtless
the desire, to return to the major routes of American diplomacy: a relative
disengagement from the Middle East; a display of an enhanced U.S. presence in
the Pacific facing a China that is increasingly sure of itself; a united stand with
Europeans against a Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who has embarked on a
crusade against "the West."
Divided on foreign policy, the Republicans are playing
hardball against the jihadist explosion in the Middle East. They know, however,
that public opinion is opposed to any new foreign adventure: they are not
proposing anything more than what Mr. Obama has already undertaken to contain
the jihadists of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
On some important issues, they will, however, endeavor to
torpedo the president’s diplomacy. The first victim will be the United States’
environment policy. For Republicans, global warming is a fairytale invented by leftists.
Nothing should interfere with the exploitation of coal, oil and gas, or the
competitiveness of American companies. Suffice it to say that the chance of
seeing this Congress ratify any agreement on the issue of greenhouse gas emissions
is non-existent.
Convinced that America is a manifestation of "the good,"
Republicans need a force that embodies absolute evil. They have found it in the
person of the Islamic Republic of Iran. They will do everything to oppose an
agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue, which would foreshadow the beginning
of a normalization of relations between Washington and Tehran. Never mind if
such a move would be one of the rare prospects for stability in the region. On
this issue, as on the issue of Israel-Palestine negotiation, Republicans are
aligned with the positions of the Netanyahu government.
If he rejoices in Mr. Obama's electoral defeat, Mr. Putin would
be very wrong. For in the face of Russia, and notably its Ukrainian policy,
there is the risk that the Republican majority vintage 2014 will be even more
likely than the White House to adopt a diplomacy of tougher
economic sanctions.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
Finally, more free market than the Democrats, the
Republicans will help the president on at least one of his foreign policy
priorities: the conclusion of two treaties of market liberalization, one with
Europe and the other with Asia.
In politics - more so than elsewhere - nothing is set in
stone. Faced with a Congress in the hands of the opposition, a decisive
president, as ready for confrontation as for a charm offensive, can do a lot.
It is true, however, that these two traits are not in Barack Obama's make-up.
