President Obama before delivering his second inaugural
address.
Obama's Legacy
Depends Most on U.S. Energy Transition (Folha, Brazil)
"The U.S. is undergoing a remarkable change in the domestic production of energy - gas and oil extracted from metamorphic rock - which is lowering the cost of production in the country. ... Battles in Congress tend to galvanize public attention. But Barack Obama's future in the history books may depend much more on the actions of his government in accelerating, and not hindering, the economic transition that is now underway."
Barack Hussein Obama, 44th president of the United
States, starts his second term caught between the desire to be one of the
greatest leaders in the history of his country and his limited means for achieving
that goal.
The list of tasks the Democrat has set for himself over the
next four years is not a modest one. He seeks an economic recovery after five
years of global crisis; bringing the public debt and deficit into balance; less
hostile immigration laws; a restructuring of the policy of coexistence and
containment of China; and to exert a stabilizing influence on a Middle East in
crisis.
And such ambitious aspirations weren't enough. The
massacre of children in the state of Connecticut on the Atlantic coast occurred
in December, again placing the issue of gun control on the presidential agenda.
The goal of restricting the access of citizens to firearms capable of such
killings has awakened a latent clash in North American society.
The right to bear arms, an amendment inserted into the
Constitution in 1791, is readily invoked by radical conservative groups opposed
to stronger restrictions. Displaced from the context in which it was passed - its
purpose at the end of the 18th century was to inhibit tyranny by granting the community
the power to form militias - this constitutional principle has become the banner
of the militant right.
Interestingly, this undercurrent promotes new idolization
of the country's past. In this reconfiguration, the sabotage of a shipment of
tea carried out by rebellious colonists in Boston in 1773 is at
times given more importance than the Declaration of
Independence, which was signed three years later.
However, strident factions of resistance fail to
sufficiently explain or determine the adhesion of significant portions of the
electorate, on average more moderate, to the ranks of conservatism. But the greatest
watershed to mobilize the masses is the debate around the extension of government
powers over the lives and pocketbooks of citizens.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
This is the most potent fuel for domestic opposition to
Barack Obama's plans. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives
calls for reducing the public debt and deficit, which has exploded as the cost
of battling the crisis. Republicans also resist attempts to raise taxes or restrict,
as is the case with firearms, the radius of individual action.
A crucial battle in this regard is underway. Obama, whose
party dominates the Senate, needs the support of House Republicans to raise the
legal ceiling for public debt, which now stands at $16.4 trillion (a little
more than the annual U.S. GDP). If nothing is done, it is estimated that the
supply of money to pay government suppliers and creditors will run out in
mid-February.
A dispute over the same issue in 2011 led to a breakdown in
confidence in the U.S. and around the world in the economic recovery, and led
to widespread financial turbulence. Despite that, Republicans are now repeating
the tactic of wearing down the White House and extracting concessions from
Obama in talks to avoid what would be a default of the planet's largest
economy.
If Obama's legacy depends on the votes of Congress, as is
the case for his proposals on fiscal policy, firearms and immigration, then he
will need to mitigate Republican resistance. A Democratic victory in the legislative
elections of 2014, which will renew the House and a third of the Senate, would
be the most effective way of achieving the presidential goal.
But perhaps at the end of his eight years, the president's
perceived legacy will be able to dispense with the always unpredictable results
of elections and legislative battles. Over the next few years, a confluence of
factors may favor an economic recovery on a safer foundation than in the
previous cycle, which was powered by an unrecoverable debt.
The U.S. is undergoing a remarkable change in the
domestic production of energy - gas and oil extracted from metamorphic rock
with new mining techniques - which is lowering the cost of production in the
country. A cycle of repatriation of industrial production, which was centered
in Asia before, has begun to gather speed and scale, fueling the American
consumer market.
Incorporating the most prolific technology centers in the
world, the U.S. will also gradually benefit from a demographic advantage. It
already boasts a younger population than average in the developed countries,
and it is moving to supplant China in this regard in less than two decades. If
one believes in the forecasts, the Western power will have fewer difficulties attracting
a workforce than the east.
Battles in Congress tend to galvanize public attention.
But Barack Obama's future in the history books may depend much more on the
actions of his government in accelerating, and not hindering, the economic
transition that is now underway.
