U.S. and E.U. are Correct to Apply Stronger Sanctions on Russia
(O Globo, Brazil)
"The question is the dosage: not so weak that they don't affect
the Russian economy - and the information is that up to now they haven't; and
not so strong that they lead Putin into some sort of military madness. ... In the
case of the latter, it's certain that his popularity would break through the stratosphere
among Russians, and the West will have an even more serious problem to face."
The
crisis in Ukraine continues to escalate. In the port city of Odessa, dozens of
people died in a building fire after clashes between supporters of Kiev and
Moscow. In addition, two Ukrainian military helicopters were shot down by
rockets fired by pro-Russia militia. The aircrafts were part of an offensive by
the provisional government in Kiev to retake the eastern city of Slaviansk, which is occupied by Russian forces.
Immediately,
Russia considered the agreement signed in Geneva between Moscow, Kiev and
Washington superseded. That deal established conditions for a de-escalation of
the crisis. In turn, meeting at the White House with German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, President Barack Obama said he was preparing, with the European allies,
sanctions that would reach specific sectors of the Russian economy. Those that
have been put in place so far seek to punish leaders and entrepreneurs close to
President Putin and the Ukrainian separatists. Both Obama and Merkel focused on
[nationwide presidential] elections on May 25. Russian initiatives to prevent
the polls will be the signal to launch the new sanctions. [Also on May 25,
mayoral elections will be held in 27 cities, including Odessa and Kiev]
The
crisis took off after the Ukrainian reformers attempted to approach the E.U. to
sign an agreement that would have given companies in the country greater access
to the European market, and which would have forced them to modernize.
According to these leaders in Kiev, that would be a healthy turn of events for
a country dominated by oligarchs and their skewed political and economic
formulas.
Putin
punished Ukraine heavily, taking back the Crimea Peninsula (it was Russian
until 1954) and moving to take charge of uprisings and rebellions in the east of
the country, where the population speaks Russian and has close ties to Russia.
The Kremlin’s justification is to protect this population from "attacks"
by an "illegitimate" government in "fascist" Kiev.
All
went relatively well between Russia and Ukraine while authoritarian systems prevailed
in the countries, and with "democratic" institutions were perfectly
submissive to the elected powers. In Moscow, the arrangement is part and parcel
of a power project - Putinism - which has been cultivated
in such a way that Putin remains atop the system, using nationalism and the
wounded pride of the Russians to promote his plans. However, a rebellion
overthrew the Kremlin's man in Kiev and the problems began.
It's
the right decision for the United States and European Union to impose new
sanctions on Russia. The question is the dosage: not so weak that they don't affect
the Russian economy - and the information is that up to now they haven't; and
not so strong that they lead Putin into some sort of military madness.
In
the case of the latter, it's certain that his popularity would break through
the stratosphere among Russians, and the West will have an even more serious
problem to face.
