Mural
to the dead: Revolutionary Guard members look at pictures
of
commanders and colleagues killed in Sunday's suicide bombing.
Le Figaro, France
Tehran's Hour of Decision
"The
rapidity with which Tehran has accused the United States of being behind this
attack against the Revolutionary Guard is revealing … it betrays the obsessive
fear within the mullahs' regime of Washington's political overture."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Secretary of State Clinton in Moscow, October 13. It seems that the Russians aren't yet on board for increased sanctions on Tehran.
The attack yesterday that
caused the deaths of five Revolutionary Guard commanders confirms the deteriorating
domestic situation of the Islamic Republic, just as the issue of Iran’s nuclear
program finds itself at the top of the international agenda.
The suicide attack, claimed
by a Sunni group in Balochistan, occurred on the eve of a crucial meeting in
Vienna under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is intended
to implement an agreement reached on October 1st in Geneva between Iran and the
international community.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
The rapidity with
which Tehran has accused the United States of being behind this attack against
the Revolutionary Guard is revealing. [Majlis Speaker] Ali Larijani seized on
the attack as proof of American “animosity” and to affirm: “Mr. Obama has said
he will extend his hand toward Iran, but with this terrorist action he has
burned his hand.” This reaction from the speaker of Iran's parliament betrays
the obsessive fear within the mullahs' regime of Washington's political
overture.
How to respond to the offer
of dialogue when it was so easy to profit from the widespread rejection elicited
by the administration of George W. Bush?
In Vienna, the Iranians will
have to respond to this question. They agreed in Geneva to hand over their
low-enriched uranium to be processed abroad for use as fuel - in a research reactor
for civilian uses only. Will they deliver their entire stockpile of enriched uranium?
Or will they seek to conserve and conceal it, provoking new problems to gain
time?
One of two things will happen:
·Either
a mechanism will be put in place to ensure a de-escalation of this affair.
Tehran chooses to get toe the line while saving face in order to concentrate its
energies on resolving its domestic difficulties.
·Or conversely,
the growing fragility of the Iranian regime leads to a freeze and a drive to
restore unity by encouraging reflexive nationalism.
Of the two hypotheses, the
first isn't the most likely. Nevertheless, we must hope that it will prevail.
The Vienna meeting will give us a good indication of the direction taken by Tehran.
