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Le Temps, Switzerland

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Putin's Plan Won't End Hatred Among Syrians (Kommersant, Russia)

 

"The reaction of the global community to Russia's initiative has been mixed, but most analysts agree that Moscow’s maneuver has been a personal victory for Putin and a major blow to Obama’s image. ... There is no overstating the complexity of Syria's ethnic and religious map, as each group has its own alliances and sources of weapons. Recent events show that the degree of hostility among ethnic and religious groups has gone so far that Syria’s civil war will go on any case - whether Russia's plan to destroy the country's chemical weapons succeeds or not."

 

By Andrei Odinets

 

Translated By Igor Medvedev

 

September 19, 2013

 

Russia - Kommersant - Original Article (Russian)

Bashar al-Assad: Once again, he has proven himself not only ruthless, but a smooth geopolitical operator.

 

BBC NEWS VIDEO: Behind the scenes of an Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons testing lab, Sept. 19, 00:02:40RealVideo

Moscow: Last week for the first time, Russian diplomats made remarkable progress on the Syria track. Since the beginning of 2011, when clashes began between the armed opposition and the Syrian army loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, Russia has used all of its influence to prevent international intervention in the conflict, including blocking draft U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning the actions of the Syrian regime.

 

But after the attack near Damascus at the end of August, when Washington accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons against the civilian population, it looked like the Syria crisis would proceed without Moscow’s participation. U.S. President Barack Obama declared his readiness to punish the regime of Bashar al-Assad for violating international norms, then turned to Congress for permission to carry out a military operation.

 

However, during the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested an alternative: a plan to establish international control over Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons. According to Kommersant sources, their plan involves four phases. First: Syria joined the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Second, Syria will declare where all of its chemical weapons are stored or produced. Third, it will admit OPCW inspectors onto all of such locations. Lastly, together with the inspectors, how these chemical weapons stockpiles are destroyed will be determined.

 

As a result, on September 10, Obama announced he would postpone any strike on Syria by at least a month and a half, and that he is willing to work with Russia on Putin's proposal. Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and went to Geneva to work out the details. On September 12, Putin took the unprecedented step of writing an op-ed in the The New York Times to the American people and U.S. elites, which included a detailed outline of Moscow's position on the Syria issue. Putin expressed that for Russia, the central principles are national sovereignty and collective action through the platform of the United Nations, and a warning that an attack on Syria could destabilize the entire region.

 

The reaction of the international community to Russia's initiative has been mixed, but most analysts agree that Moscow’s maneuver has been a personal victory for Putin and a major blow to Obama’s image. The Nobel Peace Prize winner was forced to give up military action (at least for now) as a result of the peace plan by our president, who is considered in the West anything but a symbol of democracy and peace. Sergei Komkov, president of the All-Russia Educational Fund, has already sent the Nobel committee a letter nominating Putin for the Peace Prize.

 

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Still, even if U.S. military action has been delayed, even complete implementation of Russia’s plan to destroy Syria's chemical weapons will not bring peace to the country. The events of the past few months have shown that in 2013, the war in Syria entered a new phase.

 

Beginning in April 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring, a clash erupted between the military, which supported the official Baath Party and al-Assad's regime and the opposition. Up to the end of 2011, Sunnis united in the Free Syrian Army, primarily made up of defectors fighting for a secular and democratic Syria, were the driving force of the opposition. The year 2012 was one of significant radicalization and Islamisation among  opposition groups, as well as the beginning of large-scale arms shipments from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Finally, by 2013, a fully-fledged, every-man-for-himself civil war emerged.

 

The ethnic and religious map of Syria is extraordinarily varied. It stretches over an area of about 186.5 million square kilometers and is inhabited by 22.5 million people. Syria emerged with its current borders in 1946 as a result of the emergence of a republic on territory previously under the control of France, which took charge after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The borders with neighboring countries are artificial and bear no resemblance to Syria's ethnic and religious differences.

 

The main fighting force today are Assad's fellow Alawites, followers of an esoteric strain within Shiism. Alawites make up about 12 percent of Syria's population and are concentrated in the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus, and in and around Damascus. Comprising the most combat-ready part of the government army and secret services, their hatred is directed not only at other Syrians that support the regime, but anyone who follows other branches of Islam.

 

In 2013, the government, according to some accounts, began to "separate out" areas densely populated by Alawites from Sunnis. Experts believe this has been to prepare the ground, in the case of Syria's collapse, for the creation of an independent Alawite state with direct access to the sea. In addition to the official army, the Alawites have an armed militia - the Shabiha. Assad's regime also has the support of Shiite Iran, which provides military trainers and weapons, as well as the Shiite group Hezbullah, which is based in Lebanon.

 

About 80 percent of Syria's Muslim population is Sunni. However, there are notable differences among them, especially when it comes to the formation of armed groups. As stated by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, 25 percent of rebel units are radical Islamists linked to al-Qaeda. These people make up a better melting pot of people who came to Syria from different parts of the world (mainly Muslims from the Middle East, North Africa and the Balkans) to fight for the idea of jihad. The most powerful of these groups is the Al-Nusra Front, amounting to at least 6,000 fighters. It is considered the most effective of all rebel forces, but its representatives are among the most radical: they have been busy "cleansing" areas of Alawites, as well as organizing suicide bomber attacks that have claimed large numbers of victims among the civilian population. In December 2012, the United States recognized the the Al-Nusra Front as a terrorist organization. The second most radicalized group, also recognized as terrorists by the Americans, is the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

 

Associated with al-Qaeda, the Al-Nusra Front entered into a firefight with more moderate elements of the Free Syrian Army, which consists mainly of civilians who took up arms under Sunni commanders who once served in the government army.

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The official government forces also contain ethnic minorities. The most powerful, the Kurds, lived in the north and northeast of the country and make up about 9 percent of Syria's population. The Kurds control several major oil fields and have their own army, the People's Protection Units, which contains up to 15,000 fighters. In July 2012, it was hailed by the Kurdish Supreme Committee as the highest political authority in Kurdish-controlled areas, where it closely coordinates its activities with Iraqi Kurds.

 

The third largest ethnic group are Syrian Turkmen. On the territory of Syria there are up to 3.5 million Turkmen (according to the Turkmen National Union), the vast majority of which are Arabic-speakers who remember their Turkish origins. Among the defense forces of the Syrian Turkmen, many have combat experience as former officers of the national army. For example, among those who died during an attack on Syria's National Security building were Syrian General Hassan Turkmani, who for five years, from 2004 to 2009, was Syria's defense minister.

 

There is no overstating the complexity of Syria's ethnic and religious map, as each group has its own alliances and sources of weapons. Recent events show that the degree of hostility among ethnic and religious groups has gone so far that Syria’s civil war will go on any case - whether Russia's plan to destroy the country's chemical weapons succeeds or not.

 

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Posted By Worldmeets.US Sept. 19, 2013, 11:19am