Putin's Plan Won't End Hatred Among Syrians (Kommersant, Russia)
"The reaction of the global community to Russia's
initiative has been mixed, but most analysts agree that Moscow’s maneuver has
been a personal victory for Putin and a major blow to Obama’s image. ... There
is no overstating the complexity of Syria's ethnic and religious map, as each
group has its own alliances and sources of weapons. Recent events show that the
degree of hostility among ethnic and religious groups has gone so far that Syria’s
civil war will go on any case - whether Russia's plan to destroy the country's chemical
weapons succeeds or not."
Moscow: Last week for
the first time, Russian diplomats made remarkable progress on the Syria track. Since
the beginning of 2011, when clashes began between the armed opposition and the Syrian
army loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, Russia has
used all of its influence to prevent international intervention in the conflict,
including blocking draft U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning the
actions of the Syrian regime.
But
after the attack near Damascus at the end of August, when Washington accused the
Syrian government of using chemical weapons against the civilian population, it
looked like the Syria crisis would proceed without Moscow’s participation. U.S.
President Barack Obama declared his readiness to punish the regime of Bashar al-Assad for violating international norms, then
turned to Congress for permission to carry out a military operation.
However,
during the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov suggested an alternative: a plan to
establish international control over Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons.
According to Kommersant
sources, their plan involves four phases. First: Syria joined the Organization
for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
Second, Syria will declare where all of its chemical weapons are stored or
produced. Third, it will admit OPCW inspectors onto
all of such locations. Lastly, together with the inspectors, how these chemical
weapons stockpiles are destroyed will be determined.
As
a result, on September 10, Obama announced he would postpone any strike on
Syria by at least a month and a half, and that he is willing to work with
Russia on Putin's proposal. Sergei Lavrov and U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry and went to Geneva to work out the details. On
September 12, Putin took the unprecedented step of writing an op-ed in the The New York Times to the American people and U.S. elites, which included
a detailed outline of Moscow's position on the Syria issue. Putin expressed
that for Russia, the central principles are national sovereignty and collective
action through the platform of the United Nations, and a warning that an attack
on Syria could destabilize the entire region.
The
reaction of the international community to Russia's initiative has been mixed,
but most analysts agree that Moscow’s maneuver has been a personal victory for
Putin and a major blow to Obama’s image. The Nobel Peace Prize winner was
forced to give up military action (at least for now) as a result of the peace
plan by our president, who is considered in the West anything but a symbol of
democracy and peace. Sergei Komkov, president of the
All-Russia Educational Fund, has already sent the Nobel committee a letter nominating
Putin for the Peace Prize.
Still,
even if U.S. military action has been delayed, even complete implementation of
Russia’s plan to destroy Syria's chemical weapons will not bring peace to the country.
The events of the past few months have shown that in 2013, the war in Syria
entered a new phase.
Beginning
in April 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring, a clash erupted between the
military, which supported the official Baath Party and al-Assad's regime and
the opposition. Up to the end of 2011, Sunnis united in the Free Syrian Army, primarily made up of defectors fighting for a secular and democratic Syria, were
the driving force of the opposition. The year 2012 was one of significant
radicalization and Islamisation among opposition groups, as well as the beginning of
large-scale arms shipments from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Finally, by 2013, a
fully-fledged, every-man-for-himself civil war emerged.
The ethnic and religious map of
Syria is extraordinarily varied. It stretches over an area of about 186.5
million square kilometers and is inhabited by 22.5 million people. Syria
emerged with its current borders in 1946 as a result of the emergence of a republic
on territory previously under the control of France, which took charge after
the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The borders with neighboring countries are
artificial and bear no resemblance to Syria's ethnic and religious differences.
The
main fighting force today are Assad's fellow Alawites, followers of an esoteric
strain within Shiism. Alawites make up about 12
percent of Syria's population and are concentrated in the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus, and in and around
Damascus. Comprising the most combat-ready part of the government army and
secret services, their hatred is directed not only at other Syrians that support
the regime, but anyone who follows other branches of Islam.
In
2013, the government, according to some accounts, began to "separate
out" areas densely populated by Alawites from Sunnis. Experts believe this
has been to prepare the ground, in the case of Syria's collapse, for the
creation of an independent Alawite state with direct
access to the sea. In addition to the official army, the Alawites have an armed
militia - the Shabiha. Assad's regime also has the support of Shiite
Iran, which provides military trainers and weapons, as well as the Shiite group
Hezbullah, which is based
in Lebanon.
About
80 percent of Syria's Muslim population is Sunni. However, there are notable
differences among them, especially when it comes to the formation of armed
groups. As stated by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, 25 percent of rebel
units are radical Islamists linked to al-Qaeda. These people make up a better
melting pot of people who came to Syria from different parts of the world (mainly
Muslims from the Middle East, North Africa and the Balkans) to fight for the idea
of jihad. The most powerful of these groups is the Al-Nusra
Front, amounting to at least 6,000 fighters. It is considered the most effective
of all rebel forces, but its representatives are among the most radical: they have
been busy "cleansing" areas of Alawites, as well as organizing
suicide bomber attacks that have claimed large numbers of victims among the
civilian population. In December 2012, the United States recognized the theAl-Nusra Front as a terrorist organization. The second most
radicalized group, also recognized as terrorists by the Americans, is theIslamic
State of Iraq and the Levant.
The
official government forces also contain ethnic minorities. The most powerful,
the Kurds, lived in the north and northeast of the country and make up about 9
percent of Syria's population. The Kurds control several major oil fields and
have their own army, the People's
Protection Units, which contains up to 15,000 fighters. In July 2012, it
was hailed by the Kurdish Supreme
Committee as the highest political authority in Kurdish-controlled areas,
where it closely coordinates its activities with Iraqi Kurds.
The
third largest ethnic group are Syrian Turkmen. On the
territory of Syria there are up to 3.5 million Turkmen (according to the Turkmen
National Union), the vast majority of which are Arabic-speakers who remember
their Turkish origins. Among the defense forces of the Syrian Turkmen, many have
combat experience as former officers of the national army. For example, among
those who died during an attack on Syria's National Security building were
Syrian General Hassan Turkmani, who for five years, from 2004 to 2009, was Syria's
defense minister.
There
is no overstating the complexity of Syria's ethnic and religious map, as each
group has its own alliances and sources of weapons. Recent events show that the
degree of hostility among ethnic and religious groups has gone so far that Syria’s
civil war will go on any case - whether Russia's plan to destroy the country's chemical
weapons succeeds or not.
