Beijing's 'Astounding Change' Portends Korean Reunification (ChosunIlbo, South Korea)
"Official Beijing is commenting on the issue in ways that have been previously unimaginable. ... The gist of the report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is that if it must, Beijing can and will distance itself from Pyongyang. This is a simply astounding change. ... The new generation of Communist Party officials, and those in the military and academia, have very different perceptions of North Korea than their elders, who viewed it as a 'strategic asset.' Younger officials see it as a burden. During informal discussion with senior South Korean officials, the Chinese are said to be showing a keen interest in the prospect of reunification."
Would more contact and knowledge of the outside world incite these men to rise up against the Kim Jong-un regime? Washington and Seoul may already be testing the waters.
It
has been years since we have detected any change in China's perspective on
Korean reunification. Now, however, official Beijing is commenting on the issue
in ways that have been previously unimaginable.
Published
late last year, the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences issued a report analyzing Asia-Pacific development
that forecast three likely scenarios for the Korean Peninsula over the next
five to ten years: reunification, the status quo is maintained, or military conflict.
According to the Academy, for the immediate future, "reunification will be
the focus of inter-Korean relations." In particular, the report said that
"China must dispel concerns that it will continue to support North Korea
under any circumstances."
The
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is the nation's leading think tank and is
under the direct control of the State Council. The
gist of the report is that if it must, Beijing can and will distance itself
from Pyongyang. This is a simply astounding change. North Korea has been among
China's closest allies, with the two fighting the U.S. and South Korea during
the 1950-53 Korean War.
The
new generation of Chinese Communist Party officials, and those in the military
and academia, have very different perceptions of North Korea than their elders,
who viewed the North as a "strategic asset." Younger officials see it
as a burden. During informal discussion with senior South Korean officials, the
Chinese are said to be showing a keen interest in the prospect of
reunification.
U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry said
at a recent conference on global security in Germany, "I will be in
China in two weeks working on the North Korean issue, working with [South]
Korea, Japan, reunification, you name the issue." Such a statement by a
high-ranking U.S. diplomatic official is extremely unusual, particularly since
Washington habitually downplays such an eventuality, even if there have been
discussions with China behind closed doors.
The
political situation on the Korean Peninsula is still just as uncertain as North
Korea's intentions. However, the atmosphere supporting an end to 69 years of
division has never been as favorable as it is now. It is time for Seoul to
seize the opportunity. If a serious effort at a strategic dialogue leading to
unification is to be made, a framework that includes Seoul in the discussions
must be erected - and it will have to allow for North Korea to participate down
the road.
Posted By
Worldmeets.US
The
problem is that up to now, the United States and China have gone above our
heads when discussing the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. Congressional Research
Service, in a report earlier this year, said that in 2009, when former North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il suffered a massive stroke,
Washington and Beijing discussed the possibility and consequences of a regime
collapse in Pyongyang. From now on, South Korea must play a central role in global
talks determining the peninsula's future.
Fortunately,
discussions that exclude South Korea are becoming increasingly difficult to
imagine. The report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences appears to
reflect that reality. The time has come for South Korea to wake up to the
possibilities and prepare itself.
