Putin's Goal Now: Delay New Elections in Ukraine (Polityka, Poland)
"Russia's game now is clearly an effort to delay presidential
and parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Most likely, it still lacks a candidate
to back and is counting on disputes among political factions. If it finds fertile
ground for such machinations, the destabilization will continue. The goal of
Moscow is to weaken the Ukrainian state, and Crimea is a stop on that
road."
Vice President Joe Biden with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw, March 18. Biden is visiting eastern Europe to calm nerves in nations that lived under the Soviet yoke for decades, and which now see a resurgent Russia as an existential threat.
Crimea
has chosen: 95.5 percent of those who took part in the referendum voted in
favor of joining Russia. Slightly above 3 percent wanted to remain part of
Ukraine.
Russia
was chosen by members of the peninsula's Russian minority, and even by some Russian-speaking
Ukrainians. A majority of Crimean Tatars boycotted the voting. Regrettably,
there are no independent election observers in Crimea, and reports by local
authorities may prove biased.
Nevertheless,
even if the vote took place in the shadow of the gun barrels, the joy in
Simferopol seems genuine, at least among those who gathered at the city’s central
square: there was a full-throated singing of the Russian anthem, flags and
fireworks.
Kiev
has lost. The government there considers the referendum illegal, since the
Crimean parliament - according to the Ukrainian constitution - had no right to hold
a referendum on the question of separating from Ukraine, and no right to deny that
it belongs to the Ukrainian state.
Likewise,
Brussels, Washington, Paris, London, Berlin and Warsaw don't acknowledge the
referendum or its results. Even the prime minister of Turkey has spoken on behalf
of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Only Vladimir Putin says that everything
happened legeartis,
according to international law, and that the people of Crimea have
democratically expressed their will.
More
important, however, is what happens over the next few days. The authorities in
Simferopol will immediately ask Moscow for inclusion into the Russian
Federation, and that the issuance of Russian passports be handled quickly and
efficiently. The question remains, what Russia will do: will it accede to their
request, or leave Crimea, like Abkhazia
and Transnistria,
as a quasi-state that is totally dependent on its neighbor? [Russia has already
agreed to incorporate Crimea and Simferopol].
The
incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation would be the seal of Putin’s
success and fulfill his promise to Crimeans. The Russian president is very
keen on success, which is why he started this game, risked sanctions, destroyed
his image and shredded his international contacts. For him, Crimea was worthy
of the sacrifice, so why shouldn't he dot the “i”?
Especially since the referendum resulted in such a landslide, which will be a
solid argument for Moscow.
Of
course, sanctions announced by the West are a threat to the Russian economy,
and Putin the consummate player must have already taken this into account.
Sanctions, however, will also be a blow to Poland and other European economies.
They will suffer losses, not only due to dependence on Russian natural gas, but
on Russia's huge market - where they sell their own products. Can Europe afford
solidarity while its economies are in relatively bad shape?
For
now, Ukrainian authorities and Moscow have agreed to a military truce, which has
been extended to March 21, which gives Ukrainian troops in Crimea a chance to
breath. It may also be a pretext for the both sides to start talking so as not
to aggravate an already tense situation. In any case, there is an opening here.
Given that the rest of the world isn't interested in escalating the conflict
over Crimea, this may be the right moment to begin a dialogue, a time for
diplomacy and negotiations.
[Editor's
Note: Things are moving at lightning speed on the ground. Since this article
was published, Ukrainian military bases have been seized by Russian forces, and
Ukraine has announced it is withdrawing
its forces from Crimea].
Posted By Worldmeets.US
The
events in Crimea may strengthen separatists in eastern Ukraine, which in recent
days have become very active in Donetsk, Kharkov, and Lugansk.
Certainly, this is not unrelated to the Crimean referendum. Further
destabilization in Ukraine is a great threat to the state’s survival, since frankly
speaking, it remains weak and poorly organized. Russia's game now is clearly an
effort to delay presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Most likely,
it still lacks a candidate to back and is counting on disputes among political
factions. If it finds fertile ground for such machinations, the destabilization
will continue. The goal of Moscow is to weaken the Ukrainian state, and Crimea
is a stop on that road.
