Secretary of State John
Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov find something to hold hands about after urgent talks on
the Syrian
conflict.
Israeli Raid on Syria Nearly Provoked 'All-Out War' (L'Orient Le Jour, Lebanon)
"It took intensive and urgent contact between Moscow, Washington, New York, Damascus, Cairo and Jerusalem to more or less control the escalation. ... Despite the weaponry, the money and men sent to Syria to fight alongside the opposition, they were losing ground to the regime's forces. ... President Obama, according to analysts, was not convinced of the need for his country to directly intervene. ... It was at that point that Israel intervened, offering its services to the Americans. ... the Syrian president was right when he declared that the conflict may provoke an all-out war, but also that the major powers do not want a total war."
Secretary of State John Kerry cools his heels waiting for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin reportedly kept Kerry waiting for three hours.
Throughout
the day last Sunday, the region was on the brink of widespread unrest
following four Israeli bombings in Syria. It took intensive and urgent contact
between Moscow, Washington, New York, Damascus, Cairo and Jerusalem to more or
less control the escalation - one which seemed inevitable. While no one can yet say
what the future holds, we can, in any event, understand a little better what
actually occurred.
Despite
the weaponry, the money and men sent to Syria to fight alongside the
opposition, they were losing ground to the regime's forces. The latter had effectively succeeded in regaining control of the road connecting Lattakia to Damascus via Homs which, in a manner of
speaking, is the backbone of the country. Political research center reports were
beginning to talk of the opposition crumbling in six months if nothing was done
to help them. An Arab delegation lead by the Qatari prime minister [Hamadbin Jassim bin Jaber Al Than] accompanied by the secretary general of the Arab
League [Nabil Elaraby] thus
went to the United States to ask for direct American intervention in the Syrian
conflict, but American President Barack Obama, according to analysts, was not
convinced of the need for his country to directly intervene. He clearly
expressed his refusal while exploring the possibility of sending more effective
weapons to the opposition. It was at that point, they add, that Israel
intervened, offering its services to the Americans. This Israeli gesture came
as the Arab delegation proposed, from New York, a plan for a settlement to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict through an exchange of land between the two
parties. According to commentators, this in fact constituted a major concession
on the part of the Palestinians, who thereby renounced the right of return
and a substantial amount of the territory of Palestine.
This proposal was seen as a signal
from the Arab world, after the tacit American green light given to Israel to
launch raids on Syria. The Israeli aircraft took care not to enter
Syrian airspace, preferring instead, according to some sources, to once again
violate Lebanese sovereignty, to bomb four strategic positions around Damascus
at about midnight on Saturday. The targets were Mount Qasioun,
where Russian positions are thought to be sited and which faces the Presidential
Palace; the seat of the presidential guard; arms and ammunitions depots, and
finally, the Jamraya Research Center.
All the targets were in the Ghouta sector, which
essentially controls entry into Damascus.
These sources
add that two hours later, opposition fighters carried out 40 or more attacks on
several fronts in the same region with the aim of storming the capital,
believing that they could take advantage of the confusion reigning within the
army's ranks after the Israeli bombardment. The Syrian regime's Lebanese allies
insist in this regard that there was clear coordination between the Syrian
opposition and the Israelis. They present as evidence the interview on Israeli
television on Sunday given by Hassan Rastouni, one of
the opposition's spokespeople, in which he expressed his joy at the Israeli
bombings, and added that, according to allies of Damascus, the Israelis had
intervened at a time when the opposition was close to despair. On Monday the
opposition was quick to disavow Hassan Rastouni, but
in the eyes of the Syrian regime's Lebanese allies, the disavowal is a little
late.
In principle,
then, the plan was perfect. The problems began, however, when it emerged that the
Syrian army was prepared and had quietly moved a good proportion of its forces
and ammunition. They thus succeeded, according to the regime's Lebanese allies,
in repelling the attackers, while continuing to advance in the Qusayr region and suppressing any attempted Sunni uprising
in Bayda near Banias
(former Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam's
home town).
At the same
time, the "friends of Syria" referred to by the secretary general of Hezbullah
[Hassan Nasrallah] in his most recent speech hastened to the regime's aid. Iran
set the tone by increasing its threats against Israel, maintaining a certain
vagueness so as to be more worrying, simply saying that "the resistance
will respond." The Syrian leadership met immediately to announce their
intention to retaliate.
Syrian
Foreign Minister WalidMoallem
contacted his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, who
in turn contacted his American counterpart, John Kerry. As the threats became
clearer, the tone of the Israeli media began to change. Citing former military
officers, it began by noting that Hezbullah has some 60,000 missiles, before
specifying that just 40 percent of Israel's shelters are useable. For his part,
the head of the municipality of Haïfa asked
that petrochemical plants situated in the town be moved, and the Israeli government
restricted civilian flights in the northern region.
As expected,
the United States rushed to Israel's aid and President Obama contacted his
Russian counterpart, asking that he receive John Kerry during the course of his
visit to Moscow. Vladimir Putin, in turn, contacted Benjamin Netanyahu, urging
him not to undertake similar attacks, and intervening with the Iranians and the
Syrians to avoid any damaging responses. Syria, therefore, had to content
itself with authorizing the Palestinian resistance to open the Golan front: two
shells landed, one in [Israeli] occupied territory and the other in Israel,
without causing any damage. A few hours later, the Iranian foreign minister [Ali Akbar Salehi]
flew to Jordan.
It is thus
clear that Israel's "helping hand" to the opposition, whether
coordinated or not, came back to bite them, and it took direct intervention from
America and Russia to stop the escalation. Regardless, this indicates not only that
the Syrian president was right when he declared that the conflict may provoke an
all-out war, but also that the major powers do not want a total war … Updates
to follow.
