'NORTH KOREA: GROWTH'
[Het Parool, The
Netherlands]
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Germany
Even for Obama,
Talks with Kim Jong-il May Be a Mission Impossible
"Pyongyang has already ignored
two overtures by the Obama Administration. Besides, after the recent nuclear
test and threats of war against the South, Obama will not find it easy to approach
North Korea - and it is feared that Kim Jong-il has further provocations in mind."
By Petra Kolonko
Translated By Jonathan Lobsien
May 29, 2009
Germany - Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung - Original
Article (German)
The world is outraged and the
neighbors are frightened. With unusual resolve, even Beijing condemned the nuclear
test.
There is no
shortage of harsh words: North Korea’s nuclear testing is unacceptable; poses a
danger; is a provocation. One must respond with strong and strict measures. But
what does the world have left with which to threaten North Korea? "Regime
change" from without, which was still under discussion at the beginning of
the Bush Administration, is no longer being talked about. There are precious
few options left.
CHINA HAS AN OBLIGATION
The communist country, with
its 24 million inhabitants, is isolated. Its obsolete manufacturing plants produce
only necessities and foreign trade is minimal. North Korea survives thanks to
its trade with China and the energy supplies it gets from it. The foreign
exchange it requires is obtained through the sale of missile technology and other
dubious transactions.
North Korea's trade in goods
that could be used for its missile or nuclear programs [dual-use products] has
been subject to U.N. sanctions since its first nuclear test in 2006. Even its trade
in conventional weaponry and luxury goods is restricted. The sanctions were intensified
after the missile launch a month ago; the additional sanction of freezing the
foreign accounts of North Korean businesses is being discussed.
Above all, China, which is
North Korea’s most important economic partner, must assume responsibility. It
could reduce its support for the North Korean regime or discontinue it
altogether. So far, China, out of strategic considerations, has guaranteed the
survival of its former communist brother state. In the event of a collapse of
the regime, a flood of refugees into China can be expected. And a united,
democratic Korea allied with the United States, right on China’s border, would
not be something Beijing would like.
THE SOON-TO-BE ATOMIC
POWER OF JAPAN?
But China must weigh another
possibility: If North Korea succeeds in establishing itself as an atomic power,
Japan could find itself forced to become one in light of the North Korean
menace. A well-armed and possibly nuclear-armed Japan would also pose a great
challenge to China.
[International
Herald Tribune, France]
Beijing needs to weigh its
options; it could be that their stance on North Korea, indeed their attitude
toward it, will change, and that their displeasure with Pyongyang will result
in its taking action. It would be long overdue.
What might the results be of comprehensive
trade restrictions and a suspension of aid from China? The population of North
Korea is familiar with starvation. With the ingenuity of despair, the black
market and petty trade, they have learned over the decades to survive in an
economy of scarcity and struggle against the state-planned economy and a lack
of food.
NO UPRISING AGAINST KIM
JONG-IL
The calculation that a supply
crisis triggered by a tightening of sanctions could incite the population to rebel
against Kim Jong-il, will (still) come to nothing. Although there is more
discontent than ever in North Korea, the population has been isolated and
indoctrinated for so long that they are unlikely to be aware of the true nature
of their leader and his protégés.
As long as the omnipotent
security apparatus has everything in its grip, it can suppress even the gentlest
criticism. The nomenklatura will continue to receive sufficient funding and resources to lead a life of
luxury.
If penalties don't lead Kim
Jong-il and his clan to change their policies, then what incentives are there?
Energy shipments and other aid, particularly the prospect of diplomatic
recognition by the United States and Japan, have in recent years brought North
Korea to six-party talks in Beijing, where it committed itself to discontinuing
its nuclear program. Even an agreement with then-President Clinton was based on
the principle of incentives.
FURTHER PROVOCATIONS IN
MIND
The idea of a North Korea
that tests nuclear devices as well as long- and short-range missiles and disregards
the United Nations, rewarding it by violating previous agreements, is not a pleasant
one. Particularly since these auxiliary achievements have the unpleasant side
effect of helping to keep the brutal regime in Pyongyang alive.
Moreover, North Korea has rewarded
past comity by violating agreements. Nevertheless, so long as China doesn't act,
direct talks between North Korea and Washington are presumably the only way to influence
Pyongyang.
SEE ALSO ON THIS:
Le Figaro, France:
Kim Jong-il: Keeping it All in the Family and Tweaking Obama
Yonhap News Agency, South Korea:
Spy Agency Confirms Kim Jong-il's Son to Succeed Him
Daily North Korea, South Korea:
Top Korean Defector: We Should 'Neglect' Kim Jong-il
Korea Central News, North Korea:
America 'Wholly to Blame' for Nuclear Threat to World
Korea Central News, North Korea:
South Korea 'Declares War'
Daily North Korea, South Korea:
Why Did North Korea Hold a Nuclear Test Now?
Daily North Korea, South Korea:
Regime Change is Only Solution for North Korea
The Asia Times, Hong Kong:
Beijing Weighs its Options
The Hanyoreh, South Korea:
Paricipation in U.S.-Led
WMD Control a Mistake for Seoul
JoongAng Ilbo, South Korea:
South Must Delay Transfer of Wartime
Control from U.S. to South
Yonhap News Agency, South Korea:
Obama's 'Tough Challenge' from Stubborn Kim Jong-il
Like
South Korea, Japan is worried. The emerging threat favors those who wish to
beef up Japan’s defense capabilities.
In principle, President Obama
seems willing to do so. The goal of talks must be to push North Korea to comply
with its obligations: the complete dismantling of its nuclear program. The
price of this would be the prospect of recognition by Washington and perhaps
the delivery of a light-water reactor. Is this price too high? Would North
Korea be seriously interested?
Finally, it has already
ignored two overtures by the Obama Administration. Besides, after the recent nuclear
test and threats of war against the South, Obama will not find it easy to approach
North Korea - and it is feared that Kim Jong-il has further provocations in
mind.
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