Why Did North
Korean Regime Hold a Nuclear Test Now?
"First
- the Kim Jong-il regime has moved to introduce third generation leadership and
succession, which is causing tension within the regime's hierarchy. … Second, the North is attempting to press the
United States to hold bilateral talks after being acknowledged as a nuclear-armed
state…. Third, Kim Jong-il wants to see social conflict in South Korea."
The Chosun [Korean]
Central News Agency reported that on Monday, at 9:54 am [10:54pm Sunday EST], North
Korea "successfully" conducted its second underground nuclear test.
The Blue House swiftly convened an emergency meeting of the National Security
Council.
According to the
KCNA, “The Republic (North Korea) successfully conducted a second underground
nuclear test on May 25, 2009, as part of measures to strengthen its nuclear self-defenses.
In light of the explosive power and use of highly-developed technology, the test
was carried out safely.”
It continued, “As
a result of the test, scientific and technological problems have been smoothly
resolved which will boost the power of nuclear weapons. … The test and power of
our military-first policy will contribute to the peace and security of the
surrounding region and the Chosun [Korean] Peninsula.”
It added, “The
success of this nuclear test is an encouragement to our people and army, who
are participating in the 150-day battle, and will incite greater revolutionary
development and contribute to a strong and prosperous state.”
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Although the timing
of the test wasn't known - today's test was earlier than most people anticipated.
But the fact that Pyongyang planned to conduct a second test was common
knowledge as the North had said as much. But the question for many people is,
why now?
First, it could
be related to the North's domestic situation.
Since Kim Jong-il's
illness, North Korea has confronted many challenges to its domestic stability. In
particular, the Kim Jong-il regime has moved to introduce third generation leadership
and succession, which is causing tension within the regime's hierarchy.
For the stated
purpose of "forging a strong and prosperous state" by 2012, North
Korea recently consolidated its National Defense Commission and maintained its power
domestically through changes in personnel, in order to settle the issue of
succession before the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth. But
disagreements within the ruling family and inner circle on appointing a
successor to Kim Jong-il might not be resolved. Pushing forward the date of the
nuclear test may have been part of an attempt to settle any remaining disagreements
and unify the leadership with this hard-line move.
Second, North
Korea is attempting to press the United States to hold bilateral talks after
being acknowledged as a nuclear-armed state.
Since Kim Jong-il's
illness, the North has been issuing threats and challenges to the international
community. The second nuclear test is part and parcel of that trend. At the
same time, it is an appeal to Beijing to act as an intermediary between the
U.S. and North Korea, since Pyongyang knows that China needs and desires calm and peaceful neighbors
on its eastern flank.
Third, Kim Jong-il
wants to see social conflict in South Korea. Beyond his standard North Korean
negotiating strategy of "taming" his southern adversary, he may even embark
on a plan to “kill” President Lee Myung Bak. At this moment, during the period
of mourning for former President Roh Moo Hyun [committed suicide this past
weekend], Kim may see this as a moment of weakness for the Lee Administration.
Through this nuclear test, he may be pushing the South to resume some form of
engagement policy.
Therefore, the administration
in Seoul should consider this a domestic emergency, resolve to avoid domestic
conflict and revive Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group with the U.S.,
Japan and South Korea. Seoul should also pay close attention to any future
Chinese actions and any disagreements that arise between China and the United
States.
First and
foremost, at this time of crisis, the government should not allow conflict
between pro- and anti-government factions in South Korean society to spread.
