Influencing Kim Jong-un:
Can the global community have an impact?
North Korea’s Young Leader Must Be Shown Suffering of His Own People (Chugoku
Shimbun, Japan)
“There has always been lingering discontent [in North Korea] over ‘hereditary
succession.’ As a result of the new regime’s lost prestige, we shouldn’t rule
out the possibility of political disorder. … The consequence of these repeated
outrages is complete international isolation, which is pushing the people of
North Korea, who are already on the brink, into full starvation. It is crucial that
the new leader be made aware of this reality.”
During celebrations to mark the 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung, a family poses for a picture in front of portraits of Kim Il-sung and his rcently departed son, Kim Jong-il, in Pyongyang, April 17.
What was meant as a “celebratory shot” to mark the
commencement of the young supreme leader’s regime has backfired. North Korea
managed to launch what they referred to as a satellite but which we would call
a long-range ballistic missile, which rather than entering orbit disintegrated shortly
after launch
It is fortunate that the rocket debris landed nowhere near
Japanese territory and that no damage was done. Nonetheless, it is an outrage
that despite repeated requests from many countries to cancel the launch, North
Korea went ahead with it anyway.
It is the view of the U.S. military that the missile was a “Taepodong-2.” Once again, North
Korea’s urgent ambition to possess nuclear missiles has been made clear. This was
very disappointing, given signs that the nuclear issue was headed toward
resolution.
The unexpected failure will of course be a blow to North
Korea.
Speculation is that the move was intended to add some
authority to the new regime and its leader Kim Jong-un,
who was just named first
secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party and first
chairman of the National Defense Commission of North Korea. In the event, the
decision was made to open the rocket launch center to foreign media, but it all
ended in embarrassment. There is now a question mark hanging over the nation’s
technological capability.
North Korea has long pursued an unfortunate policy of
withholding inconvenient information. This time, however, Pyongyang readily
admitted the “failure” to its people. Nowadays in a variety of ways, reporting from
overseas makes its way into the country. Perhaps the government determined that
it could not conceal the incident.
There has always been lingering discontent [in North Korea] over
“hereditary succession.” As a result of the new regime’s lost prestige, we
shouldn’t rule out the possibility of political disorder.
[Editor’s Note: According
to the Daily North Korea, a newspaper in South Korea: “A source from
Pyongyang revealed today, ‘There are rumors that the “cause of the rocket
failure is not technical, but because cadres who oppose the Kim Jong-Un system have deliberately tampered with the device.’
... There is an ongoing investigation into whether opposition cadres
intentionally scuttled the launch to discredit the regime.” Because of this,
purges are expected involving party leaders involved in the rocket launch. ... ‘Rumors
are spreading fast because, since the rocket failure has been admitted by
authorities, there are no regulations outlawing discussing it.’”]
So how should we respond to a country that has once again
ignored international opinion?
It is only natural that Japan, the United States and South
Korea have criticized North Korea and are pushing for decisive action. Even if this
was a satellite launch, it would still have been in glaring contravention of
the 2009 U.N. Security Council resolution that, “demands the DPRK not conduct any further nuclear tests or any launch
using ballistic missile technology.”
Posted by Worldmeets.US
The United States in particular has lost face after reaching
an agreement in February to provide food aid in exchange for a temporary halt
to uranium enrichment.
Japan is considering new sanctions, including tightening controls
over remittances. China, which also opposed the launch, is urging countries to
remain calm given that the event was a failure. Neighboring nations are not necessarily
in agreement about how to deal with North Korea.
The first task at hand is to decide how best to prevent a
nuclear test that is reportedly in the preparation stages. When the missile launch
went ahead three years ago, the North followed suit with a nuclear test a month
later. This time, in addition to the usual brinksmanship, there is the added
incentive of regaining credibility that could lead the nation to forge ahead
with such a test.
The consequence of these repeated outrages is complete
international isolation, which is pushing the people of North Korea, who are already
on the brink, into full starvation. It is crucial that the new leader be made aware
of this reality. The international community must stand together to demand that
North Korea abandon its plans, using a carrot and stick approach to maintain a
dialogue.
In any case, the Japanese government response has been
laughably slow.
It was 40 minutes after the launch took place and only after
intelligence was received from a U.S. satellite that the facts surrounding the
missile launch were released. During that time, news updates were being broadcast
and the Self Defense Forces were busy behind the scenes.
We must ask why the government failed to activate the nationwide
“J-Alert” warning system. Although
it ordered a mass mobilization of troops in Okinawa in what seemed an overblown
response, it failed to put in any effort into keeping the public informed.
What happened to the lessons learned from the Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear disaster? Rather than simply denouncing North Korea, Prime
Minister Yoshiko Noda should reflect on that.
