Secretary of State John
Kerry with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
after meeting in Moscow
in May 7. So now that the U.S. and Russia agree
that it's time for a another
conference on Syria - will all go smoothly? Not
by a long shot, according
to columnist Emad El Din Adeeb.
Deluded Cold War Powers Jabber About Syria (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, U.K.)
"It's as if Lavrov and Kerry are
saying to everyone: 'Do what you like, fight as much as you want, and say
whatever you please - but we will have the last word.' ... The error that Lavrov and Kerry are making is to believe that they still
rule the world! ... The huge error in thinking that will become evident in the
days to come is that Moscow and Washington still think they're living in the
era if the Cold War, during which they ruled the world via telephone
conversations."
The mother of a Syrian rebel cleans a rifle in Allepo, May 14. Activists say the rebels have detonated two car bombs outside Allepo's main prison and are trying to storm the facility, where regime opponents are believed to be held.
While
the military situation in Syria suggests blatant ethnic cleansing in
preparation for the establishment of a coastal all-Alawite
state, the direction things are going internationally suggest that Russia and
the United States have their own concerns! To be more precise, the U.S. fears
the continuation of the Assad regime, and the Russians fear that Jabhat al-Nusra [the Al-Nusra
Front] and other extremist religious groups will be the ones to come to
power.
As
a result, after their meeting a few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry concluded
that the status quo, in which half of Syria is ruled by Assad and the other
half by the opposition, will continue until further notice.
Another
conclusion they reached is that there is a consensus for holding a broader
conference encompassing the current regime and the opposition, as if this is a
compromise formula for Russia to recognize the opposition or for the U.S. to
recognize the continuation of the al-Assad regime.
The
goal appears to be a compromise aimed at an opposition “without Jabhat al-Nusra,” and a form of
the current regime without Bashar al-Assad. But that
doesn't mean the Islamists will leave the opposition, nor does it mean that the
Alawites and Baathists will
leave the government!
Washington
and Moscow are taking the liberty of playing a game at the expense both of
al-Assad and the opposition. It's as if Lavrov and
Kerry are saying to everyone: “Do what you like, fight as much as you want, and
say whatever you please - but we will have the last word.”
The
error that Lavrov and Kerry are making is to believe
that they still rule the world!
Whatever
importance Russian and American arms once had, they are no longer decisive in the
game being played out in Syria, either for the regime or the opposition.
Whatever importance Russia and the United States retain, the roles of Iran,
Turkey, Hezbullah, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf states are critical.
Posted By
Worldmeets.US
And
despite the importance of each of these actors, in the end it will be armed
fighters on the ground, whether from the regime or the opposition, who
determine what happens in the theater of war.
What's
happening now at the global level confirms to us that the Americans are
incapable of arriving at a solution in Syria without the help of Russia; and at
the same time, they don’t want Russia to be the only actor to decide the fate
of Syria. We are witnessing Russia and the United States divide up management
of the world’s problems at the expense of others!
The
huge error in thinking that will become evident in the days to come is that
Moscow and Washington still think they're living in the era if the Cold War,
during which they ruled the world via telephone conversations.
The
world has changed, and the rules of the game today are that the people in
charge are those who control the situation on the ground.
