"This
country is in for a new phase of political and security turmoil - and violence.
… The forecast for Iraq should serve as a red line for its leaders to review
their political inclinations and renounce their differences, or they'll end up as
wood for the flames set by America and Israel."
Devotees of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr demonstrate against a visit from Vice President Joe Biden: Are celebrations over America's withdrawal premature?
President Barack Obama has finally
announced America's military withdrawal from Iraq by December, leaving
responsibility for providing security to local security forces. But no sooner
had Obama declared his decision than the entire world turned upside down. There
was a rush of statements confirming the fears of certain parties about the
security vacuum that America's pullout would create and who would fill it. At
the same time, there has been jubilation among other parties and factions that
imagined - stupidly - that with a complete U.S. withdrawal, seizing Iraq would
be a simple matter. In the final analysis, both extremes are mistaken in their
analysis.
Events on the horizon are
bringing dramatic global change. Iraq's share of these changes will be large
and the aftermath will not be in Iraq's favor. This country is in for a new
phase of political and security turmoil - and violence. Iraq will again be
plunged into ethnic and sectarian strife and battles over federalism. And Allah forbid - the United States and others are making
plans that will result in further violence and domestic war.
The American Central
Intelligence Agency has been entrusted with the task of finding alternative
technological means of enhancing efficiency and maintaining a presence without tens
of thousands of troops, not to mention the large number wounded and disabled since
the Iraq invasion began eight years ago. To accomplish this, talk has begun of
moving all of the CIA's equipment to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey's
southern city of Adana, which would include unmanned drones under joint CIA/Turkish
control that will keep track of armed groups and most-wanted leaders. In return
for using Incirlik, Turkey will be permitted to avail itself of the use of
these aircraft to pursue Kurdish rebels who depend on the loyalty of their
Iraqi Kurdish brethren to hold out in the mountains of Northern Iraq.
While the move will be a
proactive step by Turkey against its enemies, the American mission of going
after a wider range of groups and individuals will be more difficult. At a later
stage, Washington will likely reveal that that such operations occurred in
Iraq, Iran and Syria, particularly since no one expected recent global
developments like the Iraq withdrawal or the Arab Spring. And that is to say
nothing of the fall of the Qaddafi regime and the future importance of Libyan
oil and gas for the U.S. economy.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
From this will dawn a new era
in U.S.-Turkish relations: Ankara will gain military and political support from
Washington, and, as is the nature of the global political order, which is based
on common interests, the United States will be able to follow up on what it
sees as instability in three countries from neighboring Incirlik - and even
from Kuwait. That is what one senior U.S. official meant when he said that the
CIA's activities and information gathering for the purposes of keeping track of
events in Iraq, Iran and Syria could be accomplished just as well from Turkey
and Kuwait as from U.S. bases in Iraq.
While in the previous period,
the United States and Iran disagreed on politics but agreed on economic issues
in regard to a common issue named “Iraq,” the benefits realized from Iraq's vast
oil reserves will cement the emerging U.S.-Turkish relationship, which will be characterized
by both political and economic agreement.
Therefore, those who fear
that a U.S. withdrawal will create a vacuum only to be filled by Iran; and
those who hope that the U.S. pullout will strengthen Tehran's hand for drawing a new
map for the region according to its desires are deluding themselves. That
was the warning to Iran contained in a comment by U.S. Defense Secretary Leon
Panetta before he departed Japan for South Korea: The United States will
continue close relations with Iraq and strive to maintain a presence in the
Middle East for a long time to come.
The forecast for Iraq should serve
as a red line for its leaders to review their political inclinations and renounce
their differences, or they'll end up as wood for the flames set by America and
Israel.
