troops in Iraq that the Iraqi government's
indecision over whether to
ask the U.S. to remain a bit longer is jeopardizing plans
for a 'smooth'
U.S. withdrawal, which is scheduled to be completed by
Dec. 31, 2011.
Kitabat, Iraq
Iraqis Need a
'Plan B' for After America Withdraws
"A
'Plan B' is of great importance, particularly with the withdrawal of U.S.
troops so imminent - despite the insightful few politicians who insist on the
need to extend their stay. … An understanding of the direction we want to take
and developing a capacity to forecast the dangers ahead are the first steps
toward avoiding disaster."
Iraq's influential Shiite cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr wants U.S. forces out as quickly as possible, but many of colleagues in and out of government disagree.
Thinking about the type of political
regime Iraq will have down the road is a matter of critical importance - and for
many reasons. Undoubtedly, this regime is in the grips of a crisis. It is
deadlocked and therefore unable to live up to the hopes and dreams of the
people, let alone ease their pain. Hence we must begin to think critically about
alternatives that will avoid a descent into chaos, sectarianism and factional
animosity, which none of us deny will ensue if the regime disintegrates.
Furthermore, this will give
everyone an opportunity to consider what could be gained by changing course and
choosing a better type of government. Even those who participate in the current
regime should have an interest in this process, since they're scrambling from
one severe crisis into one even more severe. Therefore, a discussion of the
consequences of regime collapse - and what might take its place - might not
only fend off the worst, it could even sustain the current regime. It is always
wise to prepare for the worst, because, "One who thinks his options
through is better than one who puts all his eggs in one basket."
So a "Plan B" is of
great importance, particularly with the withdrawal of U.S. troops so imminent [Dec.
31, 2011], despite the insightful few politicians who insist on the need to
extend their stay and who argue that a U.S. withdrawal would leave a security
vacuum that could bring down the government and leave us confronting unprecedented
uncertainty and feeling yet more bitterness.
Many ask: why don't we seek
alternatives to this political arrangement? After all, what do we have to lose
when, because of this regime, we lack electricity, educational opportunities
and health services; and we have little or no manufacturing, trade or security
- or even a future? These facts emphasize the need to think of alternatives for
ensuring a better life for Iraqis. That is to say nothing of the overwhelming chaos
that would follow its collapse - chaos that will go far beyond the
inconvenience of even worse essential services.
What will happen if the
political process breaks down? Those benefiting from the regime warn that along
with its institutions, Iraq itself will expire! On the other hand, those who
feel harmed by the regime say that its death will mark the beginning of a better
future. But reality is much more complicated than either of these views
suggest. The majority opinion is that the regime will collapse and that the
proximate causes of that collapse will to a great extent determine Iraq's new direction.
After deep reflection, one
realizes that the political system in Iraq is unfit to continue because it
lacks the attributes to enable it to endure. It is incapable of self-criticism
and cannot evaluate and hence improve its performance - and that's to say
nothing of the unsolved legal cases and its incapacity to settle any dispute - starting
with the Constitution and the
crisis over Kirkuk. It can't
even fill the post of defense minister. Despite all of our experience, the political
paralysis is worsening and becoming more complex with every passing day. Reforming
the regime from the inside would have been conceivable if tose responsible had
the wisdom. But at the end of the day, agreements that were reached didn't hold
up and ended in derision. If shortsightedness and a lust for domination hadn't
been controlling factors, it would have been possible to leave reform to those
with the political wisdom to carry it out.
But if the death of the
regime is inevitable and only a matter of time, it would be self-defeating and
humiliating to simply sit back and wait to see a repeat of April 9 [the day of
the 2003 U.S. invasion]; find ourselves bowing to neighboring countries; or Iraq becoming the scene of yet another protracted civil war. An understanding of the
direction we want to take and developing a capacity to forecast the dangers
ahead are the first steps toward avoiding disaster. This first step is the hardest
and most important, after which everything else will automatically follow. For
whenever you awaken from a nightmare in which you found yourself on the edge of
an abyss, you must convince yourself that you are safe from evil before being
able to sleep again. We must learn from these harsh lessons and never forget
them.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
The time has come to begin a
serious discussion involving all levels of society about the present and future
for us and our children. Let us begin a real dialogue without any preconditions
or limits. Let us repeat the golden question. “What is our destiny and where are
we going, for the night is black as pitch and the road is
filled with obstacles?”
Let us look for a new plan
for tomorrow, for a way to move forward again, for new opportunities to restore
security, public services, and ways to achieve a better life. Let us endeavor
to find a path other than the vicious circle that is dragging us backwards. Let
us feel the danger and prepare before the devastating flood. The "Plan B"
that I suggest is simply that we all begin looking for it. Maybe then, we will
be guided toward the right path and just maybe, in the midst of our search, we
will again find ourselves.
