Moscow Rescues
Assad: Not a 'Travesty,' but a 'Humiliation'
"In
the wake of the Security Council fiasco, France, with U.S. support, suggested
forming a 'Friends of Syria' group - a euphemism for the provision of indirect
military aid to the rebels (likely via Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia). If this
changes the relationship of forces on the ground, the effect will be an all-out
civil war - with Iran helping its ally Assad. The gates of hell, as the Arabs
often say, will open in the Middle East."
This video grab taken by a Syrian opposition member is said to show a man mourning over the corpse of his son, shot by Syrian forces in Idlib Province, Syria, Jan. 26.
Beyond exercising their right
to raise their voices in protest of the diplomatic defeat suffered on Saturday
at the U.N. Security Council - when Russia and China vetoed an already gutted draft
resolution seeking a “political transition” in Syria - the U.S. and its allies
in Europe and the Persian Gulf can do little, at least in the short term, to
stop the wholesale atrocities of Bashar al-Assad’s regime against opposition
strongholds in Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the
Security Council vote a "travesty.” In fact, it was a humiliation.
The first version of the project
went beyond endorsing all aspects of the Arab League plan - in which Assad
would transfer power to his deputy, the virtually unknown Farouk al-Shara. This
would have required him to form a national unity government mandated to call
general elections in two months, which would be held under international
supervision. The text gave 15 days for the dictator to comply. Otherwise, the Security Council would be authorized to adopt
“additional measures” after talks with the League. The resolution also urged
the international community to suspend weapons shipments to Syria. The main
supplier to Damascus is Russia - an ally of the Assad clan since the days of
the Soviet Union, which also maintains a naval base in Tartus.
It was a draft that was meant
to be diluted so that the Russians (and Chinese) could exchange their vetoes for
abstentions. In fact, in the days that followed its rollout, Western diplomats
made one concession after another. The reference to the weapons supply was cut. Assurances
that this time the resolution was not intended to create conditions for a
military intervention in Syria - as occurred in Libya - were reinforced. While
the original version stated in contorted language that, “nothing in this
resolution compels Member States to the use or threat of force,” the final text
pointed to the intention of resolving the Syria crisis, “without foreign
military intervention.”
More importantly, all
references to the Arab League plan disappeared, like the one that provided for a
transfer of power from Assad to his deputy. For the Syrian
opposition, the approval of such a toothless document would have been
practically the same thing as doing nothing. The concessions doubled the
resistance of non-permanent Security Council members like India, Pakistan and
South Africa. But the 13 votes in favor out of the possible 15 were Pyrrhic
victories given the vetoes of Moscow and Beijing. To rub salt into the wounds
of those who advocated a U.N. statement on Syria, on the eve of the voting the Syrian
Army bombed the opposition stronghold of Homs, 160 km [100 miles] west of
Damascus, as if it were the capital of a country with which Syria was at war.
Between 200 and 300 people died. The onslaught continued yesterday.
The attack on Homs, not the
first but the fiercest one so far, has highlighted the fact that the Syrian conflict
has changed. It no longer consists of the savage repression of often peaceful civilian
street protests. Today it is a war of attrition involving armed rebel
organizations - beginning with the Free Syrian Army - and regular government forces.
The insurgents, like the guerrillas, occupy positions - they have installed
themselves on the outskirts of Damascus - from which they will certainly be
displaced given the presumably increasing stress within the regime. The largest
number of victims, as always, is civilian. It was reported yesterday that the U.N.
stopped compiling statistics of casualties in the country after they hit 5,400.
In the wake of the Security
Council fiasco, France, with the support of the United States, suggested
forming a “Friends of Syria” group - a euphemism for the provision of indirect
military aid to the rebels (likely via Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia). If this
changes the relationship of forces on the ground, the effect will be an all-out
civil war - with Iran helping its ally Assad. The gates of hell, as the Arabs
often say, will open in the Middle East.
