"Iran
didn’t want to bet on a losing horse. … It appears that secular Iraqis - like Ayad
Allawi's Iraqi National List - will be the big winners, since they benefit from
the support of both the Arab hinterlands and Iran, according to Tehran’s policy
of drawing no red lines in front of any Iraqi political faction."
Ayad Allawi votes: Iraq's interim prime minister and head of the Iraqi National List, looks like he has a good chance of forming a government to succeed that of the current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki.
Many analysts believe that
Iran has lost its position in Iraq, after the announcement that Ayad Allawi's Iraqi
National List [aka/Iraqiya Coalition] beat out
all of the political coalitions that enjoy historic ties to Tehran.
All of these analysts expect
that the defeat of the two Shiite alliances - the Iraqi National Alliance and State
of Law Coalition - will negatively affect Iranian influence. But Iranian writer
Ali Mosavi Khalkhali believes that, although not pleasing to the Iranians, the
Iraqi election results in no way remove Iranian influence. The proof: repeated
visits of Iraqi officials to Tehran after the election results were announced.
According to Khalkhali, "This is simply because Iraqi Shiites consider Iran
a key ally in asserting Shiite political rights as a counterweight to the support
of Arab states for the Sunni community." Khalkhali adds that Iraqi Shiites
have no choice but to court Iranian support, because, “the Sunnis, who have national and sectarian
aspirations, are looking for the chance to exclude Shiites from the
political arena.” He concludes his analysis of the election results by writing,
“the combined number of seats won by the two Shiite alliances loyal to Iran is 159,
which shows clearly that Iran has indeed come out on top after these elections.”
[Editor's Note: Iraq's
Assembly of Representatives has a total of 275 seats. The State of Law Coalition won
89 seats with 27.4 percent of the vote and the Iraqi National Alliance won 70
seats with 21.5 percent of the vote - for a total of 159 seats. Meanwhile, Allawi's
Iraqi National List won 90 seats with 28 percent of the vote. See
diagram below].
Political analyst
Muhammad Sadiq Al-Husseini writes that, “any government formed in Iraq must
obtain the approval of both Iran and Syria - forming a government without the
consent of these countries cannot be done."
Apart from these
Iran-centered positions, it's an established fact that regional factors,
whether Arab, represented by Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, or Muslim,
represented by Turkey and Iran, are very influential, and cannot be ruled out
of the overall Iraqi political process. This, too, is confirmed by visits to
neighboring countries by leaders of Iraqi coalitions and parties made after the elections but before the formation of a
new government.
In regard to Iran, it was one
of the first countries to open an embassy in Baghdad, bless the political
process after the fall of Saddam, and begin to pursue its interests
within the new system. These include ensuring that in terms of its aspirations
and goals with neighboring countries, Iraq's new system has needs that differ
from the previous one. For example, the need to secure a common border of over
1400 kilometers and not constitute a threat to Iran's national security in the
decades to come. Accordingly, Iran has attempted to exploit its “wonderful and historic”
relationship with some Iraqi factions, and “to a degree” stood at a distance
the from Iraqi factions courting her attention and seeking her approval for
actions and developments since April 9, 2003 [the day of the U.S. invasion].
According to Iranian sources,
Tehran chose not to use its veto on any of the Iraqi factions. This was meant
to convey that it would be on positive terms with whatever candidate became
prime minister. In keeping with this, Tehran received a delegation from the
[secular] Iraqi National List, led by Deputy Prime Minister Rafi al-Issawi, along
with other political figures. During his meetings with Iranians like Supreme
National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili, Majlis
Speaker Ali Larijani,
and other officials involved with Iraqi diplomacy, al-Issawi made it clear that
his focus was on the need to end the occupation, transfer security and politics
to the Iraqi government, and strengthen security and stability within the
framework of Iraqi sovereignty and domestic unity.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
When he heard senior Iranian
officials express a willingness to deal with whatever government emerged in
Baghdad on the basis of Iraq's national interests and domestic unity and apart
from the goals of the occupation, Al-Issawi said he was satisfied.
Tehran failed to persuade Iraq's
Shiite factions to register for the polls under a single list, which led to
the emergence of two coalitions. Tehran didn’t try to oppose this, and instead
left matters and waited to see what would emerge after the voting.
Now that Iran has secured its
interests with whatever Iraqi government sits in the Green Zone, it doesn’t
appear to want to cross paths with the U.S. or Arab countries with an
interest in Iraq.
There is a sense that Tehran won’t
object to National List candidate Allawi forming a new
government - not because it has withdrawn its support for outgoing Prime Minister
Maliki, but because it believes that someone like Allawi may be able to
secure a regional consensus and achieve security and stability. This is especially true since
Syria and Saudi Arabia have come out in support of this option. The backing of
Syrian leaders considerably lessened Shiite fears of an Allawi victory.
While the United States didn't
want to see Maliki win a second term, Iran didn't take a clear position on him,
nor did it support any candidate. Tehran believed all were equally capable of
winning and exercising power - and it didn’t want to bet on a losing horse.
Iranian experts believe that
Iraqi politicians, who only yesterday were in the opposition box, will still think
like an opposition rather than about state-building. Tehran is convinced that they
have a long way to go to understanding the political game and being able to
offer practical and realistic programs for building state insitutions.
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For these reasons, Iran has dealt
with the Iraq situation differently than in Lebanon, where it adopted a
specific faction and supported resistance against the Israeli occupation. In
Iraq it has left doors open to all political factions and figures, which has
given Tehran much more room to maneuver.
It appears that secular
Iraqis - like the Iraqi National List - will be the big winners in this
equation, since they benefit from the support of both the Arab hinterlands and
Iran, according to Tehran’s policy of drawing no red lines in front of any
Iraqi political faction.
