Protesters wear masks of President Bush, Polish President Kaczynski,

Left, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk, right, during march to protest

installing elements of a U.S. missile shield in Slupsk, Poland, Mar. 29.

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland

NATO Entry for Ukraine and Georgia Hinge on 'Bush's Determination'

"Diplomatic sources told Gazeta yesterday that U.S. pressure had been so strong that Germany had begun to hesitate. It's possible Berlin will make its final position conditional on France's stance. If Paris doesn't say no, neither will Berlin."

By Jacek Pawlicki

Translated By Marcin Wawrzyńczak

April 1, 2008

Poland - Gazeta Wyborcza - Original Article (Polish)

The chance that NATO will open its door to Ukraine and Georgia remains, although the door is unlikely to be opened as wide as Poland would like. At least not just yet.

What NATO offers Ukraine and Georgia at its Bucharest summit, which begins tomorrow, will be decided by the Alliance's leaders at the last moment. As Gazeta has learned, in the communiqué now being prepared, the section concerning NATO's future relationship with Kiev and Tbilisi has been left blank. That means that diplomats have failed to agree on a compromise formula and are leaving the last word to the politicians, who are likely to confront this most contentious issue during the opening dinner on Wednesday.

The stakes are high. If permitted to enroll in NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP), Ukraine and Georgia would find themselves within the Alliance's "entrance hall," from which no one would be able to remove them. Though joining the MAP isn't a guarantee of membership, it gives the country the status of a candidate, with NATO then working to assist it on its way toward full membership.

"Summits have their own dynamics and in theory, anything can happen," a senior NATO diplomat told Gazeta. "But at Alliance headquarters in Brussels, few would be willing to bet that Kiev and Tbilisi will join the MAP at this summit," he added.

Gazeta's sources in Warsaw and Brussels explain that the Wednesday dinner could prove quite a stormy one. Because of the differences of opinion, no alternative offer has yet been prepared for these two nations knocking at NATO's door. Earlier, there was talk that Kiev and Tbilisi would be given the promise, subject to various conditions, of being allowed to join the Membership Action Plan at the Alliance's anniversary summit in 2009.

Two days before the Bucharest summit, NATO remains divided on the issue, with the so called "new Europe," led by Poland, still lobbying strongly for Ukraine and Georgia to be allowed to enroll in MAP.

In all, the pro-Kiev and Tbilisi camp include 10 countries - the nine new NATO members of East-Central European and Canada. They say that allowing Ukraine and Georgia to join the MAP would anchor them in the West, but also push the Alliance-guaranteed zone of security further East. A refusal, they believe, would be a failure of NATO's "open door policy" and would be a consequence-fraught concession to Russia, which strongly opposes the prospect NATO membership for the two countries.

On the other side are the Germans and at least 11 other "old Europe" countries, including France, Italy and Spain. The Financial Times Deutschland has called this group the "European phalanx." The "phalanx" argues that neither Kiev nor Tbilisi meet the MAP-entry criteria, and furthermore the Ukrainian public is deeply divided over NATO membership.

The sceptics also point out that NATO shouldn't irritate Russia at a time when the Alliance is counting on its support in Afghanistan. German diplomats have also warned that allowing Ukraine and Georgia to join the MAP could destabilize these two countries. In Ukraine, riots could easily be provoked in the Crimea, where a majority of the population are nationalistically-minded Russians. Georgia, in turn, has to reckon with an angry reaction from separatists in Southern Osetia and Abkhazia.

The Americans, NATO's most influential member state, support Ukraine and Georgia's aspirations, but, according to the "supporting group," haven't been firm enough.

Several days ago, President George W. Bush called German chancellor Angela Merkel to try to win her over to the Ukrainian cause, and he will likely try again during Wednesday's dinner in Bucharest. "Everything will depend on how determined he is," sources at NATO headquarters say.

For now, there are few reasons to believe that Germany will change its mind. In Berlin, however, diplomatic sources told Gazeta yesterday that U.S. pressure had been so strong that Germany had begun to hesitate. It's possible Berlin will make its final position conditional on France's stance. If Paris doesn't say no, neither will Berlin.

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

Though hopes for giving Ukraine and Georgia candidate status are slim, the Polish cabinet and President have consistently lobbied in their favor. Last week the President sent letters to the leaders of the other 26 NATO member states asking them to support the aspirations of Ukraine and Georgia. He is also trying to secure unofficial face-to-face meetings with as many as thirteen national leaders at the Bucharest summit. According to Gazeta's sources, three leaders have so far agreed - the Prime Ministers of Belgium and Luxembourg and Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

Last Saturday the Financial Times published the Polish President's article titled, tellingly, NATO Must Embrace Ukraine and Georgia, in which Lech Kaczyński writes, among other things, that unless he Bucharest summit gives green light to the Alliance's further enlargement, it will mean the NATO has lost the political reason for its existence. Then the Alliance would "irrevocably lose its stabilizing role ."

SEE ALSO:

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the Missile Shield - and the

Price U.S. Will have to Pay

http://worldmeets.us/gazetawyborcza000009.shtml

Novosti, Russia

Bush Arms Albanians to Do

NATO's Dirty Work in Kosovo

http://worldmeets.us/novosti000051.shtml

Le Figaro, France

Afghanistan Shows the

West Must Regain its

'Colonial Savoir Faire'

http://worldmeets.us/lefigaro0000205.shtml

Der Spiegel, Germany

NATO: Germany Puts

the Brakes on U.S.

Plans for Expansion

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,544109,00.html

CLICK HERE FOR POLISH VERSION

[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US April 1, 6:24am]