Russian President and soon-to-be Prime Minister,

Vladimir Putin. He has his own missiles and has

made it clear he'll do everything he can to defeat

the effectiveness of the American missile shield.

 

 

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland

Poland's Qualified Yes on

the Missile Shield - and the

Price U.S. Will have to Pay

 

"What will the Poland-U.S. anti-missile shield deal look like … Demands for Patriot missile batteries, though on top of the list, weren't Poland's only demand. Warsaw's wish list provides for at least eleven years of military-to-military collaboration worth several billion dollars."

 

By Marcin Bosacki

 

Translated by Marcin Wawrzyńczak

 

March 11, 2008

 

Poland - Gazeta Wyborcza - Original Article (Polish)

President Bush with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the Oval Office on Monday.

WASHINGON: What will the Poland-U.S. anti-missile shield deal look like? Here are a few scenarios - about agreements or the lack of them - to watch for in the next eleven months.

 

During their meeting at the White House yesterday, President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Donald Tusk agreed to negotiate on the question of basing elements of the anti-missile shield in Poland in return for substantial U.S. aid for the Polish armed forces WATCH . Though both politicians stressed that "much remains to be determined by the experts," their words - official and unofficial - suggest the following scenario"

 

What does Poland offer? If an agreement is ultimately reached, Warsaw will agree to allow the anti-missile installation to be located in Poland. The launchers in Poland would be coordinated with radar systems almost certain to be based in the Czech Republic.

 

The question of lease charges has yet to be decided. Up to now, the Tusk government has asserted that it would not agree to a free lease, which is what the U.S. side initially suggested. Yesterday a person close to the talks said: "If the military aid is generous, the lease charges won't have to be high - we're negotiating this as a package."

 

What will Poland get? Yesterday President Bush explicitly declared a "concrete modernization plan for the Polish armed forces." Mr. Tusk said that "neither the dates nor the numbers have been discussed."

 

But what's being discussed by official military experts for the two countries? Poland wants at least two short-range Patriot batteries capable of destroying aircraft and missiles. Polish's existing anti-aircraft defense system dates to communist times and is in very poor condition. Up to now, the Americans were reportedly willing - reluctantly - to agree to a single Patriot battery. But a Polish source close to the talks said, 'This will certainly not satisfy us.'

 

One "bare" Patriot battery is worth some $250 million. Taking into account munitions, equipment and staff training, the cost is about $1 billion.

 

Will the United States choose to offer such substantial aid to Poland's armed forces? A number of variations are possible. The Americans could, for instance, sell Poland the Patriot batteries at a preferential price, or could offer Warsaw a fully redeemable U.S. government loan for the purpose.

 

"Everything's still fluid, but after Mr. Bush's declaration yesterday, we now have the green light for serious talks on our proposals," two unrelated Polish sources said yesterday.

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

 

Gazeta was also told that the demand for the Patriots, though on top of the list, weren't Poland's only demands. Poland's wish list provide for at least eleven years of military-to-military collaboration worth several billion dollars. The Americans wouldn't have to supply all the hardware at once, since under the U.S. budgetary laws that would be impossible.

 

When will these agreements be signed? Above all, Poland wants two separate agreements - one on the missile shield and another on military aid. As the deal on military aid is far more complex, it will likely be signed later.

 

Condoleezza Rice confers with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in the Oval Office on Monday.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Prime Minister Tusk yesterday that a reply to Poland's proposals which were submitted in February would be received within three months even though up to now, the Pentagon wanted as much as six months to reply.

 

It's therefore possible that by this summer or early fall, both agreements will be ready. If that happens, Poland will have to submit the missile shield deal for ratification to Parliament. But before that occurs, the Americans will have to guarantee aid for modernizing Poland's armed forces for at least the year 2009.

 

"Unless such a guarantee is made, the Polish Parliament won't ratify the deal. This is our security at stake,' said a person close to the Prime Minister. Mr. Tusk also said something to that effect earlier.

 

What about Russia? Mr. Tusk repeated three times yesterday that President Bush had "pledged to calm the anxieties of third parties," which means Russia. For Poland, this is vitally important. "We want Moscow fully appeased by the Americans and they've promised to do so," Polish sources said.

 

Is this a major success for Mr. Tusk? If the talks are completed successfully soon and the U.S. really agrees to offer substantial aid for modernizing Poland's armed forces, Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Defense Minister Radek Sikorski will have achieved a major victory.

 

The Prime Minister said yesterday that his "predecessors had left the talks in such a state that things haven’t gone easy for us [Tusk was elected November 2007]." Both Mr. Tusk and Mr. Sikorski stress that Poland was now "calm but firm" in her demands.

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

 

Earlier, an expert close to the U.S. State Department told Gazeta that the Pentagon believes "the Poles will agree to the shield in any case." But now even they will have to accept that Poland will demand alot in return.

 

MR. BUSH SPEAKS ON POLISH VISAS

 

"Prime Minister Tusk … was very firm about the need for a friend to treat a friend as a friend - and when it comes to visas was very firm. I fully understand the frustrations. And if I were living in Poland, I'd be -- and wanted to come to America, I'd be frustrated, too," Mr. Bush told the press.

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

 

Mr. Tusk, who before his departure from Poland declared, "Enough pleadings about visas! It's over!," was obviously surprised by Mr. Bush's statement.

 

After leaving the White House, he explained, "It was President Bush who was so hospitable as to refer to the question of visas. He assured me that as soon as the visa-rejection rates at U.S. consulates in Poland dropped, the visa regime would quickly be lifted."

 

Last year, the U.S. lowered the visa-refusal level below which the regime can be lifted to 10 percent. In 2007, the ratio was still at 20 percent in Poland, but at the beginning of this year fell to slightly over 15 percent. Realistically, Polish citizens could expect to travel to the U.S. visa-free by 2010.

 

CLICK HERE FOR POLISH VERSION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US March 13, 11:33pm]