A family marches for
immigration reform on Capitol Hill, Wednesday.
While support for reform
is strong among U.S. Latinos, border security
measures in the current
bill will have a dramatic impact on Mexico.
Sealed U.S. Border Will Be 'Unprecedented Challenge' for Mexico (El
Universal, Mexico)
"What will the impact of this law be on Mexico? The most
obvious is that the border will become more dangerous - almost impenetrable.
There will be more deaths and more arrests. ... The sealing of the border will be
a major challenge for Mexico's government and border cities, as the region becomes
a genuine human cork. Mexican and Central American migrants who reach the
border will be stranded there, putting pressure on employment and services in
the area."
Every
day, the proposed U.S. immigration reform law gets tougher: the waiting period for
obtaining citizenship has risen from 13 to 15 years, migrants will have to
admit that they illegally entered U.S. territory, and now the measures for
controlling the border zone will be doubled, both in terms of budget and the number
officers. The amendment proposed by Republican Senators Bob Corker of Tennessee
and John Hoeven of North Dakota demands an increase
in border patrol officers to 40,000; requires the construction of a 700 mile
fence; the installation of infrared sensors; and the use of unmanned aerial drones.
The figures are devastating: there will be seven border patrol officers for
every mile of the frontier.
Despite
what may seem overly rigorous to Mexican eyes, this proposal has been met with great
approval by senators of both parties - because there were other, even more
radical initiatives. Democrats have qualified the amendment's formula as a "necessary
compromise" for passage of the reform.
The
central concern about reinforcing the border used to be the cost: $30 billion
annually. However, those doubts have been allayed by the Congressional Budget
Office, which declared that the legalization of 11 million undocumented
immigrants will result in a revenue windfall of $200 billion. So the funds will
thus be ensured. The reform bill must be approved on these terms by a vote of
70 senators. Then it will go to the House of Representatives, where Republicans
have a majority and are expected to further toughen the terms of the bill.
Republicans and Democrats agree on two things: the border must be effectively
sealed, so that in 10 years there will not be a similar need to deal with millions
of illegals. They are also united by the political necessity of endearing
themselves to Latino voters, who were critical to Barack Obama's triumph in the
last election. Republicans know they cannot win future elections without the
Hispanic vote.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
What
will the impact of this law be on Mexico? The most obvious is that the
border will become more dangerous - almost impenetrable. There will be more
deaths and more arrests. Coyotes [smugglers] will take more dangerous routs to
get people in. The sealing of the border will be a major challenge for Mexico's
government and border cities, as the region becomes a genuine human cork.
Mexican and Central American migrants who reach the border will be stranded
there, putting pressure on employment and services in the area.
During
the first four years of the Obama Administration, there were a record-breaking
number of deportations: 1,700,000 were deported. With the entry into force of
the new immigration law, the government must demonstrate that it is able to
stop nine out of every ten migrants who attempt the crossing.
This
sealing of the border will put an end to an era. Mexicans who cannot find employment
in Mexico will be unable to easily reach the United States. The amount of remittances
will necessarily diminish (as they already have) and Mexico will have to
accelerate the creation of jobs like never before. Mexican authorities will
have to make decisions about the fate of migrants who transit through our
country from Central America, and will have to exercise more control over the
border with Guatemala, which is part of what the United States is trying to
achieve with its new immigration law.
Mexico
will cease to be the country with the largest number of migrants in the world.
A law crafted with U.S. interests in mind will particularly impact Mexican interests.
Mexico must sensitize U.S. Congress members to these ramifications. However,
above all, our country must prepare itself to face the unprecedented
consequences of U.S. immigration reform.
*Enrique BerrugaFilloy, a diplomat and
writer, was permanent representative of Mexico at the United Nations,
2003-2007. An ambassador of Mexico since 1995, he was undersecretary for
North America and multilateral relations, Africa, Asia and Europe. The author
of three novels; one of them, Property of Other has been made into a movie by
director Luis Vélez. He is a professor of
international relations at ITAM and a member of the
board of directors of the International Peace Academy. Now he also co-president
for the reform of the world environmental system, a post to which he was
elected by the United Nations General Assembly.
