Nuclear Deal Ties One
of Iran's Hands, But Frees the Other
"One must fear that while Tehran's
declared or hidden nuclear hand may be shackled, its other hand will be released
to exercise a more important regional role - and that is the heart of the
problem. … Iran's role in the Arab region isn't welcome, be it in Iraq,
Palestine or Lebanon. But the most important red line is the Arab Gulf region."
Despite the mixed global reaction,
what has been achieved in Tehran by the Iran-Turkey-Brazil agreement is an
appropriate step on the path toward resolving one of the most complicated
international issues. And whether or not all of its sections are implemented in
the short term, Iran is the greatest beneficiary of the agreement. Since the
deal takes a flexible approach, even if its terms are difficult to implement, it
will complicate international pressure to impose sanctions. And regardless of how
successful elements of this agreement may be, the problem is much more complicated,
because the nuclear issue is just one of the topics of regional and global
concern. There is a fear here [in the Persian Gulf] that misunderstanding the nature of U.S. relations
with Iran will come at the expense of the strategic interests of countries in the
region.
To Iran, a nuclear weapon
isn't so much a goal in itself as it is way of achieving interests that negatively
overlap with the security needs of neighboring countries. This is why we
shouldn't be overly optimistic or applaud an agreement, the indirect consequences
of which we do not know. Despite the euphoria, such an agreement doesn't mean
an end to a headache that may worsen when it's put into practice.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Even if Iran abides by its
promise of a one-time or periodic exchange of uranium, this commitment restores
hope and allows the IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities. These are the two key
elements required for judging the feasibility of what has been achieved and convincing
the international community of the absence of any secret uranium enrichment
facilities outside of those known to the world.
Brazil President Lula, Iran President
Ahmadinejad and Turkish
Prime Minister Erdogan,
after reaching an agreement that calls
for Iran to ship some of its uranium to Turkey for reprocessing.
In any case, we must think carefully
about might happen next. Given concerns that are no less important than Iran's
nuclear program, one must fear that while Tehran's declared or hidden nuclear
hand may be shackled, its other hand will be released to exercise a more important
regional role - and that is the heart of the problem. After all, nuclear weapons
may never be used in such a sensitive area of the world where the interests of
the East and West so dramatically intersect.
We should be alert to the
danger of Iran using this agreement as a good conduct medal that would allow it
overcome red lines, play a greater regional role and achieve major political objectives
at the expense of others. That would increase espionage activity and push the
region into another Cold War.
Iran's role in the Arab
region isn't welcome, be it in Iraq, Palestine or Lebanon. But the most important
red line is the Arab Gulf region [Most people refer to it as the Persian Gulf].
We have to wait before
judging what will happen. Experience tells me that good intentions are quite
limited in regard to the Iranian situation.
