With Iran, Turkey and Brazil Create a New Diplomatic Reality
"The
Iran nuclear deal is of course an important success for Brazil, and it's clear
that in the future, Turkey will cooperate more with that nation and others similar
to it, trying to resolve apparently deadlocked international disputes."
It would appear that a
nuclear-exchange deal with Iran is finally in the offing. This raises the happy
prospect of reduced tensions and reduces the threat of an Israeli attack on
Iran's nuclear facilities, something that would have had serious negative
global repercussions.
The proposal by non-permanent
U.N. Security Council members Turkey and Brazil concerning the exchange of
enriched uranium on Turkish soil was finally accepted by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
government in Iran over the weekend, following a series of mixed signals from
Tehran that had started to anger officials in Ankara as well.
"After a final agreement
is signed between Iran and the Vienna group, our fuel will be shipped to Turkey
under the supervision of Iran and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy
Agency]," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told journalists
in Tehran. "Then we'll dispatch 1,200 kilos [2645 pounds] of 3.5
percent enriched uranium to Turkey to be exchanged for 120 kilos of 20 percent
enriched uranium from the Vienna group."
Rather than face what
appeared to be imminent international sanctions, it seems that Iran finally saw
the writing on the wall, which caused it to adopt a more cooperative stance on
the issue. The surprise decision by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan to fly from Izmir to Tehran on Sunday night was the signal that after
weeks of Iranian defiance, a breakthrough was in the making.
In Tehran over the weekend, Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu spent 18 hours talking to Iran Foreign
Minister Manuchehr Mottaki with his Brazilian counterpart Celso Amorin, while at
the same time, Brazil President Lula da Silva held higher-level talks in the
Iranian capital.
It's clear that the aim of Turkey
and Brazil was to convince President Ahmadinejad that the endgame was near and
that if Iran didn't cooperate, there was little that friendlier countries could
do for it. It was also clear that Ankara was growing impatient because the
Iranian side appeared unresponsive, despite all of Turkey's efforts on its behalf.
There was also some disappointment
after Turkey issued overt signals that it wanted to play a mediating role - and after
Iran, having said for months that it didn't need any mediation, made it known that
it would accept Brazilian help.
Undoubtedly, this is why
Prime Minister Erdoğan at first refused to go to Iran last weekend. He was
clearly concerned that Tehran would remain uncooperative while he was there,
which would have reflected doubly badly on Ankara.
The stage we've arrived at is
of course a vindication of Turkey's Iran policy, which seeks to prevent
sanctions against a neighboring country and push for diplomacy to be pursued to
the end. There has been serious impatience in the West over Turkey's stance, as
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made clear in a long phone call to Foreign
Minister Davutoğlu on Friday. She reportedly insisted that there was
nothing new in Iran's position and suggested that Ankara not water down Western
efforts to impose sanctions on Tehran.
That was clearly the point at
which in terms of its diplomatic efforts, Ankara saw that the end was near and it
warned Tehran that its options were running out. Iran also had to consider the
future of Turkish-Iran relations, because it was clear that if Tehran left
Ankara in the lurch after all of the diplomatic effort spent by the
Erdoğan Government on its behalf - it would have had bilateral repercussions.
While Brazil's efforts are
much appreciated, it's evident that Turkey's importance is special for a host
of reasons, chief among them that Turkey isn't just a predominantly Muslim country,
but a regional player whose role is rapidly growing. It's clear that the
Iranian deal will further add to this importance.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
Of course there will be those
in the West who insist that Iran still can't be trusted and will try to ratchet
up the pressure regardless of the deal. As for Israel, any deal with Iran is,
by its very nature, bound to disappoint. The right-wingers who've gotten hold
of that country have been itching to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
There's also another factor
that Israel will now have to consider. Having been instrumental in working out
a deal with Iran, it's unlikely that Prime Minister Erdoğan will drop his
criticism of Israel's own nuclear program. To the contrary, Ankara will make
much more of this now that Iran has been brought into line, and will push
harder for a nuclear-free Middle East.
It seems, therefore, that
while some will insist on keeping the pressure on Iran no matter what, the topic
of pressuring Israel to come clean will mount relative to the extent that
Tehran cooperates with the international community.
But as matters stand today and
whatever doubts may remain, it's clear that Turkey has achieved a major
diplomatic coup. After months of effort that appeared to be going nowhere,
Turkey has been instrumental in bringing about a deal on a major global issue.
The result of course is also
an important success for Brazil, and it's clear that in the future, Turkey will
cooperate more with that nation and others similar to it, trying to resolve
apparently deadlocked international disputes.
