Chinese paratroopers ready for the cold: Shouldn’t the Kremlin

be more concerned about a Chinese invasion of Siberia than a

U.S. and NATO attack from the West?



Yezhednevniy Zhurnal, Russia

Putin is Mistaken to Favor China Over the United States


“Today, if one appraises capabilities, it is precisely the Chinese army that presents the greatest danger to our country. … Yet Putin refers to China in exclusively glowing terms. ... The question is: Why does Moscow consider Western countries likely adversaries, while viewing China (which has far more reason and opportunity than the United States or NATO to attack Russia) as its closest partner?”


By Alexandr Golz


Translated By Yekaterina Blinova


March 19, 2012


Russia - Yezhednevniy Zhurnal - Original Article (Russian)

Russia and China, two of the largest nations with a one of the world's longest borders: Shouldn't Russia, with its huge territory and diminishing population, be more concerned about an invasion from an overcrowded and increasingly-wealthy China, rather than with an attack from the United States and the West?


RUSSIA TODAY NEWS: Eagle vs. Dragon: 'The U.S.-China rivalry is resulting in a new arms race', Feb. 15, 00:06:17RealVideo

An interesting bit of information recently arrived from the People’s Republic of China. The PRC’s 2012 military budget will grow by 11.2 percent this year, reaching $106.41 billion. This was announced by Li Zhaoxing, a member of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. According to him, these expenditures are “relatively small.”


Let us note that this modest military budget - the second largest in the world after that of the United States - is twice Russia’s. One should also bear in mind that, according to analysts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and America’s RAND Corporation, the PRC’s actual military budget is 40-50 percent higher than the official figure - and according to American and Japanese military analysts, the figure is three times larger. Thus, China’s current military budget may in fact be in the neighborhood of $250 billion. In any case, China’s military spending is growing much faster than the eastern giant’s gross domestic product.


Russian officials are terribly fond of talking about double standards. Those insidious Americans, they say, assess their own aggressions as legitimate defenses of national interest, and similar actions by other governments as violations of the international order. Here would be a good time to consider Putin’s article in the Moskovskiye Novosti on foreign policy. All his criticism in the article centered on the United States. This is a country that supposedly aspires to absolute military domination. But when it comes to China, it is quite the opposite. Putin refers to it in exclusively glowing terms. The most important issues are marvelous personal relationships and mutual trust between leaders (remember, this was precisely the basis of Comrade Stalin’s calculations during his games with Hitler). The central objective of Russia’s foreign policy, if one believes Putin, is to “catch some of China's wind” in our sails.


At the same time, it is not at all clear what to do with Putin’s favorite quote from Bismarck - that nations are not ranked on the basis of policy intentions but capabilities. Because today, if one appraises capabilities, it is precisely the Chinese army that presents the greatest danger to our country. But let me say that I in no way share the alarmist conceptions that any day now, the treacherous Chinese will capture Siberia and the Far East. The leaders of the Celestial Empire would never risk its achievements, which are now concentrated in several parts of the country, in favor of the highly unpredictable outcome of an invasion of Russia. China could sent back to the Middle Ages with the help of just a few dozen nuclear weapons detonated over the country’s main industrial centers. Besides, the Chinese need not effectuate a military intervention in order to seize Russian oil and gas. It is enough for them to print a sufficient number of yuan, which will then be exchanged for dollars.


Note that this logic applies just as much to Beijing as it does to Washington. However, for some reason, Vladimir Putin believes that evil plans are being hatched in the U.S. alone. In the meantime, China’s military has long ago ceased to be the impoverished, poorly trained force that was once the butt of jokes. Numbering no less than two million service members, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) now has over 7,000 tanks, over 2,000 fighter aircraft and more than 200 warships. And the problem is not just quantity. China’s multiple rocket launchers have a range of up to 190 miles [300 kilometers], and they are superior to all similar systems in the U.S. or Russia. In addition, we should not forget China’s almost 500 nuclear weapons.


Experts from London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies insist: China is already projecting military power across Southeast Asia. It’s primary purpose: the return of Taiwan and then the establishment of sovereignty over several islands in the South China Sea that are now claimed by Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. deputy commander of the PLA Navy, Vice Admiral Xu Hongmeng, told media of plans to commission the aircraft carrier Shi Lang this year (this is the former Soviet carrier Varyag, which was sold to China by Ukraine).



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In 2006, the PLA conducted training exercises in the Shenyang Military Region, during which troops operated across a 1,000 square mile area. This scenario was very much like a rehearsal for an offensive against Siberia. Other PLA exercises that were held in 2009 were even more impressive and troubling to Russian experts, because they demonstrated the capacity of the Chinese armed forces to conduct large-scale military operations on territory alongside Russia. These exercises, code-named “Kuyuae-2009,” were the largest in the 60-year history of the People’s Republic, and were conducted across four of China’s seven military regions: Shenyang, Lanzhou, Xinjiang, and Guangzhou. The exercises involved up to 50,000 ground troops, the PLA Air Force and over 6,000 vehicles. During the maneuvers, the troops covered over 31,000 square miles [50,000 square kilometers]. For instance, four combined military divisions marched (first by rail, then by foot) over a distance of 1,200 miles [2,000 kilometers].


During the exercises, joint operations among the different armed services were conducted under modern combat conditions. In September 2009, Chief-of-Staff of Russian Ground Forces Lieutenant General Sergei Skokov characterized the potential adversary in the East as follows: “This may be a multi-million man army, but it follows a very traditional, straight-forward approach to conducting military operations: a large concentration of men and firepower attacking a number of distinct targets.” But what happens when such a huge army is equipped with modern technology and fights in keeping with the modern revolution in military affairs?     

Posted by Worldmeets.US


The question is: Why does Moscow consider Western countries likely adversaries, while viewing China (which has far more reason and opportunity than the United States or NATO to attack Russia) as its closest partner? I suspect there is one key reason: the bosses in Moscow sincerely see their Chinese counterparts as equals. That is, similar to themselves. But there is one thing Moscow doesn't like to pay attention to: Chinese leaders, having led once, never return to power again ...  




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[Posted by Worldmeets.US March 29, 8:39pm]


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