Russia's
President Dmitry Medvedev, center, with the leaders
of Georgia's breakaway province of Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapsh,
left, and South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity.
Medvedev signed
friendship treaties with the two on Wednesday, promising
them the support of Russia's armed forces, Sept. 17.
Le Figaro, France
Did Russia 'Win'
the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot
"The relationship between
Russia and the former republics of the Soviet Union have spectacularly
deteriorated … China’s has resoundingly refused to show the slightest
solidarity with Moscow … there has been a massive divestment on Russia's Stock
Exchange. It's a rather opportune time for the Western alliance to negotiate an
end to this crisis, which would immediately stabilize a large portion of the
planet.
The height of the
Russo-Georgian crisis seems now to have passed. The time has come for real
assessments. Russia has benefitted from its initial firmness, at least in one
theater: Ukraine. In Kiev, a very broad consensus has emerged to put off the
country's membership in NATO. It must certainly be noted that President Yushchenko, the main advocate of a political-military
alliance with the West, has experienced a spectacular collapse of his political
credibility at the polls, almost parallel to the nearly complete recovery of
his face, which was once marked by the attempted poisoning he was a victim of.
But the pushing aside of his prime minister and ally in the "Orange
Revolution," YuliaTymoshenko,
has laid the groundwork for the next general election with a coalition that
includes his own party and the "regions," comprising the bulk of
Russian-speaking voters from Donbass, Crimea and
Odessa. With the return to power of qualified representatives of the
non-Ukrainian minorities [pro-Russian], Moscow now has an ipso-facto right to
inspect if not veto all decisions of the Ukrainian government. Since French and
German foreign ministries have indicated their refusal to begin a process as destabilizing
as letting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, some may believe that Putin’s
reconstituted team has just won a great victory.
RUSSIAN
REPORT ON UKRAINE PRESIDENT, SARAH PALIN
However, one
train can hide another: if the situation in Ukraine is improving - and it was
already recovering before the Georgian crisis - the relationship between Russia
and the former republics of the Soviet Union have, however, spectacularly
deteriorated. For example: even that dreadful satrap of independent Belarus,
Alexander Lukashenko, is cozying up in the most
unexpected fashion to Poland and the neighboring Baltic states to shield
himself from Russian ambitions. Putin’s foreign ministry has taken great pains
to create a NATO alternative with China and the central Asian republics,
"the so-called Shanghai group" [aka/the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ].
However, the little
credibility that this group had has been shattered by China’s spectacular and
resounding refusal to show the slightest solidarity with Moscow. In doing this,
China took a clear legal position: Beijing cannot endorse changes, even
symbolic ones, on the legal status of certain territories, because if it did,
this would do lasting damage to its intransigent attitude toward Tibet and
Taiwan. But Chinese annoyance goes beyond that: after the success of the
Olympic Games and black clouds are gathering over the global economy, China has
no desire for the logic of the Cold War, the first manifestation of which would
be the erection of new protectionist measures by the Democratic majority in the
U.S. Congress. If Russia thinks it has significant autonomy to act because of
its important position in the oil market, China cannot afford this luxury, with
growth that still depends on the secondary effects of exports, notably to the
United States.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
But there's a still more
alarming element for the Russian government: the massive disinvestment - though
not coordinated - by those who over the years, have purchased shares on the
Moscow Stock Exchange. If the Soviet economy isn't too dependent on
these financial flows, the position of the main oligarchic businesses is
already feeling the impact. There's no need to organize system of sanctions:
the American crisis and European fallout will prove sufficient to reduce the
exposure of Western capitalists to a region that has again turned high
risk.It's clear that with a victory
that was obtained by such brutal means and by playing games with Ukraine's
political parties, Russia has paid an exorbitant price in terms of the credibility
of its alliances and the attractiveness of its economy.
Even if one gambles on a rapid solution to the global financial crisis,
there's no doubt that in the first instance, a general slowdown will lead to an
even more rapid decline in the price of a barrel of oil. But Russia currently
exports only raw materials and some weapons systems to oil-producing countries
and China. Without even establishing more hostile mechanisms, Europeans will
soon be confronted with a more malleable and less triumphant Russia. It is here
that Europe must above all take care not to emulate the absurd Russian strategy
of recent weeks. Clearly, it's an opportune time to avenge the strong-arm
tactics that have caused such fear around over the world and for the Western
alliance, particularly the European Union, to negotiate an end to this crisis
with Russia, which would immediately stabilize a large portion of the planet.
