[Granma, Cuba]
O Globo, Brazil
'Developing World'
Must Gird for Battle With Rich Over Energy
"Higher oil prices have
resulted in global inflation, which has manifested itself in higher prices for
food, airfares, freight costs, consumables and finished products in many
sectors … it is now clear that emerging countries will compete, perhaps for the
first time, for the same resources that are available to those that are already
rich and developed."
By William Waack
Translated By Brandi Miller
May 23, 2008
Brazil - O Globo - Original Article (Portuguese)
The immediate consequence of
the explosion in oil prices is clear and irreversible in the short term. It's
the global inflation that has manifested itself in higher prices for food,
airfares, freight costs, consumables and finished products in many sectors.
But for the
medium term, there are two conflicting interpretations. The first is contained
in a report from the respected International Energy Agency 
, which assumes
that geological and geopolitical reasons will inevitably lead to an oil supply
crisis. This interpretation was the immediate cause of nervousness on oil
markets this Thursday (May 22).
The other interpretation for
the medium-term follows the same scenerio (price
inflation, competition for scarce resources) but arrives at a far different
conclusion. The rising cost of a barrel of oil will lead to a slowdown in the
global economy, which will prevent the emergence of a crisis in supply.
It's difficult to resolve
this "battle" of interpretations at the moment. Other similar
episodes of rising oil prices show that higher prices spur new technologies and
the better use of fuel. In the decade of the seventies, the "shocks"
in price and supply (caused by geopolitical, not geological reasons) were
absorbed by a fantastic technological revolution - the information age.
But there's a new
factor in the international politics of oil: the rise of the emerging
countries. Economists pointed out some time ago the importance of these states
in preventing a U.S. economic crisis from becoming a global crisis. What is now
becoming better understood is the impact on these countries of the dispute over
the scarce resources that are available.
[Granma, Cuba]
It's still early to speak of
a "geopolitical rearrangement" - to say that China is the new
superpower is not a novelty - but at the moment, it seems clear enough that the
path of emerging countries will first of all depend on their access to sources
of energy and (unbeknownst to analysts two years ago) only secondarily on the
opening of markets, flows of investment and international trade agreements.
This isn't putting a new coat
on an already-painted (and discussed) framework of "wars over
resources" (water, energy, food). Political, religious and social factors
are also powerful in helping to understand international conflict or the
difficulty in obtaining agreements - such as in the Middle East, for example.
But it's clear that the
emerging nations will have to compete, perhaps for the first time, for the same
resources available to the already rich and developed.
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HERE FOR PORTUGUESE VERSION
[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US May
25, 5:35pm]
