Relations between China and
the United States are far too important to be put in doubt by the arms sale to
Taiwan. But Beijing’s very strong reaction to the $6.4 billion in supplies for
the Nationalist island has opened a period of worrying turbulence between the
two most important countries on the planet.
Washington is obliged under
the Taiwan Relations
Act of 1979 to provide Taipei with the defensive weapons it needs. Each
administration has to go through this, if only for domestic interests related
to the power of Congress.
The moment chosen for these
events is never innocent. This time, it comes after a series of American
inconveniences: Obama’s somewhat successful visit to China in mid-November;
Beijing’s refusal to re-evaluate the yuan; the failure of the Copenhagen Climate
Summit; the conflict over Google and China's refusal to consider sanctions
against Iran.
The weapons sale is more a
consequence of George W. Bush. It doesn't contain the F-16 fighters sought by Taiwan,
but it includes 60 Blackhawk helicopters. It comes at a time that China, being
proud of having found its way through the global economic crisis better than
any other country, is asserting itself more and more on the international
scene.
Thus, Beijing’s reaction is of
a higher pitch than in the past. Recently restored military ties were suspended,
and moreover, China is brandishing the threat of trade sanctions against the American
companies involved, such as Boeing. Rhetoric about U.S. “interference” in China's
vital interests plays to the highly sensitive subject of nationalism.
Barack Obama, too, is
cajoling his electorate by responding to what is perceived as Beijing's
unreasonable disposition. This is all part of the usual diplomatic game between
Washington and Beijing - provided that it goes no further.
How can Obama hope to double U.S.
exports as he promised in his State of the Union speech without obtaining a
reevaluation of the yuan? As far as China's concerned, it still needs foreign
manufacturers to develop its aviation industry.
Reason would suggest need for
a modus vivendi between the superpowers of today and
tomorrow.
[Editor's Note: A modus vivendi
is way of living together, usually when rivals disagree].
