Senator John McCain: He has been underestimated before.
Le Figaro, France
Left Misses
McCain's Assets: The Economy, Iraq and Congress
"Take the U.S. economy, the
object of mockery by the French left which has predicted its imminent collapse
for more than 25 years. It won't. ... In Iraq, the situation on the ground has
changed significantly in recent months and there is a very good chance that
America will win the war. Whether opponents of the war like it or not, the
facts are stubborn and the statistics cannot be appealed."
It has become a ritual. In
each American election, analysts and much of the media rush to remind us that
the poor state of the economy will play a fundamental role in the decision of
voters. The famous phrase that was uttered by Bill Clinton has become a slogan,
"It's the economy, stupid!" - but it seems to
have more of an effect on these Cassandrasthan on American voters. Because despite the
excellent state of the economy during the Clinton years - the latter chose a
Republican in 2000. And in 2004, they decided to triumphantly reelect the
incumbent President - despite the "catastrophic situation" in which
America found herself: in the midst of an economic crisis and mired in Iraq.
[The God Apollo is said to
have given Cassandra [daughter of the king of Troy] the gift of prophecy. But
because Cassandra rejected Apollo's romantic advances, he cursed her by making
it so that no one ever believed her ].
At the root of this inadequacy
is a profound ignorance of the facts. Take the American economy, the object of
mockery by the French left which has predicted its imminent collapse for more
than 25 years.
The latest figures show that in
France, second quarter growth was 3.3 percent, and according to the Organization
of Economic Cooperation and Development , over the next
year it could exceed 2 percent, which would be stronger than any of the G-7
member countries. We are therefore far from the previously announced recession
and also very far from the grave crisis that U.S. Democrats are invoking to
justify political and economic change.
The U.S. economy grew at an
annual rate of 2.2 percent between 2001 and 2008, despite the attacks of
September 11. Under President Bush, the economy expanded by about 19 percent
(as a comparison, that of France has grown by only 14 percent over the same period).
Between 2001 and 2007,
unemployment in the United States has remained, on average, at 4.7 percent (a
rate that our politicians don't dare dream of). Today, it's 5.7 percent of
the active population (it was 5.4 percent when Clinton was reelected in 1996).
In 2007, more than 3 million jobs were created. In the eurozone
during the same years, the unemployment rate averaged 8.3 percent.
More interesting still,
according to an annual study by the Census Bureau (America's official
statisticians), which was just released, median income for 2007 has seen its
third consecutive annual increase, exceeding $50,000 per year. And again, according
to the same study, inequality has fallen: the income of the highest "quintile
[top-fifth of all incomes]" decreased 0.8 percent, while the third and
fourth "quintiles" rose by 0.3 and 0.4 percent, respectively. [There
are a total of five quintiles]
It's true that the budget
deficit worsened: from 1.2 percent of the GNP in 2007, it rose to 2.9 percent
in 2008. But isn't that still below the rate authorized by European treaties?
The increase is a result of military expenditures and tax cuts this spring: over
$150 billion that rather mechanically caused a budget deficit. This will
nevertheless be offset by stronger economic growth (which is the case for the
second quarter).
2008 ELECTION FUN: RED STATE UPDATE - PALIN'S 'BIG SPEECH'
It's true that inflation has
been at 5.6 percent over the last few months, but a relatively good economic
situation prevailing in an unfavorable context, marked by the mortgage crisis
and the bankruptcy of several banks and financial institutions, is being felt
in surveys on the well-being of Americans: a study by the Gallup Organization
published on August 30 showed that only 9 percent of Americans say feel they
are dissatisfied with their jobs and fear losing them in the months ahead. In
another poll by Harris Interactive, no fewer than 94 percent of Americans said
they were satisfied with the lives they lead. And according to polling
organization specialists, the decline in the price of oil should reinforce this
wave of optimism.
The second advantage John
McCain has is Iraq. An ardent supporter of the 2003 American intervention, he
was among those who supported the troop surge and has consistently maintained
that the soldiers should stay until final victory. And the situation on the
ground has changed significantly in recent months and there is a very good
chance that America will win the war.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Whether opponents of war like
it or not, the facts are stubborn and the statistics cannot be appealed: since
June 2007, terrorist attacks have dropped by 60 percent, losses in the ranks of
Iraqi civilian are down 70 percent since July 2007, as are American military
losses (down 72 percent over the same period). Sectarian violence has witnessed
a drop of 90 percent in one year and there are only a quarter as many daily
attacks against coalition forces. It has come to a point in which General
Petraeus, commander of coalition forces in Iraq (until the end of August), has
declared that U.S. troops could leave Baghdad within a few months.
The economy is nothing to
sneeze at. Over 30,000 foreign companies have invested in Iraq over the last
three years, inflation has fallen by 65 percent in 2007 to less than 5 percent
in July 2008; and the Iraqi federal budget doubled in three years, reaching $41
billion thanks to oil production that has surpassed that before the war. The Chinese
have understood these changes well: they just announced a $3 billion investment
in Iraq.
The final bit of good news
from Iraq is the transfer by the Americans of the al-Anbar region into the
hands of local authorities . This region,
sadly famous for the battles in the city of Falujah,
has become one of the calmest and safest in the nation. Attacks have dropped 90
percent in twelve months. And by the way, according to a report published in
July by Jane's Information Group, Iraq is "only" in 22nd place among
countries at risk - "beaten" by other countries like Somalia, Burundi
and Nigeria.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Finally, by dint of speaking
about President Bush's unpopularity, we forget that of the Congress. Since
November 2006 when it came under the control of the Democratic camp, Congress
has been repeatedly rejected by Americans. Incapable of proposing the slightest
relevant reform, Congress has a popularity rating of only 14 percent, while
Bush's still reaches 34 percent. McCain would be wrong not to take advantage of
that.
John McCain, whom President
Bush has given his strong support despite their past differences, has all of these
assets. However, though the Republican candidate has always supported Bush on
Iraq, with regard to the economy, he opposed his tax cuts. But during his
campaign he has changed his mind on this and has even proposed cutting taxes
further if elected. He has understood that you don't change a formula that
works.
*Nicolas Lecaussin is lecturer at the Political
Science Masters Program at the University of Marne-la-Vallee,
and is author of The State that Kills France (Plon,
2005) and Effective Absolutism (Plon,
2008)
