'Sixty Seven
Days': the Obama 'System' for Beating McCain
"Long divided between Obamistas and Clintonites, the Pepsi Center arena in Denver
definitively shook Wednesday night, in one of those theatrical political coups
the Americans are so fond of. … Barack Obama leaves the convention in Denver
with the keys to the Democratic Party. He has 67 days to convince Americans to
give him the keys to the country."
Standing alone
Thursday evening under 450 spotlights at a giant stadium in Denver, speaking
from a platform set up in the middle of the crowd, before a backdrop of Greek
columns meant to enhance his image as a statesman, Barack Obama made American
history: he officially became the first Black candidate of a major party for the
presidency of the United-States.
On top of the
confetti and fireworks that closed out a grandiose Democratic convention, the
symbolism abounded. On this day that marked the 45th anniversary of Martin
Luther King's speech ("I have a dream"), never far away was the
shadow of assassinated President John Fitzgerald Kennedy - he who had also
chosen a football stadium to accept his nomination on July 15, 1960: "We
stand today on the edge of a New Frontier - the frontier of unknown
opportunities and perils, the frontier of unfilled hopes and unfilled
threats."
JOHN KENNEDY
ACCEPTS DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, JULY 15, 1960
Often compared to
the youngest American president for his oratorical talent, from him Barack
Obama has drawn part of his inspiration, as well as from Bill Clinton and
Ronald Reagan. His nomination speech, in front of some 80.000 people, was the
biggest challenge of his candidacy to date: "I want to make the choice
between John McCain and myself as clear as possible," he declared. "And
I hope that this convention will have contributed to an understanding of who I
am."
[Editor's Note:
This quote could not be confirmed from the speech transcript].
The four days of
celebration and political struggle have crowned Obama as sole leader, now
undisputed, of the Democratic party. This was prerequisite for being able to
launch him, with the best possible chance, into the final lap in the race for
the White House. Long divided between Obamistas and
Clintonites, the Pepsi Center arena in Denver definitively shook Wednesday
night, in one of those theatrical political coups the Americans are so fond of.
The required 50-state vote by the delegates was in its 37th stage and the
Illinois senator was ahead of his colleague from New York by 1549.5 votes
against 341.5. It was then that Hillary Clinton stepped in to bring the vote to
an end: "I ask that Barack Obama be nominated by acclamation." As a
result, the euphoria of unity recovered. Or at least a possible defeat was
turned into a triumph.
BARACK OBAMA
ACCEPTS DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, AUG. 28, 2008
THE CRUCIAL
CHALLENGE OF PARTICIPATION
Right in stride,
Bill Clinton, with his mastery, delivered the most valuable support that the
young Democratic candidate could have hoped for. On top of his authority as a
former occupant of the Oval Office, he declared: "Barack Obama is ready to
be the next President of the United-States." This is one of the points
that Americans still need to be convinced of. "Sixteen years ago,"
underlined Clinton, "the Republicans said I was too young and too
inexperienced to be Commander-in-Chief. Sound familiar? … Barack Obama is on
the right side of history. His life is a 21st Century incarnation of the
American Dream." The former president brushed aside McCain with a:
"Thanks, but no thanks" and described a future that looked very
similar to his eight-year mandate: Barack Obama "will choose diplomacy
first and military force as a last resort. … people the world over have always
been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our
power."
BILL CLINTON
ENDORSES OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT, AUGUST 27, 2008
That was all that
needed to be said, and preferably by no one else. That is why the Denver
convention marked a critical stage, and an arguably successful one, in the
run-up to the November 4 ballot. Experts interviewed by the National Journal
were in agreement in predicting that there would be a 4 to 9 points bump in the
polls for Obama. This type of jump isn't necessarily long-lasting, especially
since the timing isn't conducive to the Democratic Party: his rival John McCain
will seek to cut the grass from under his feet on Friday by announcing the name
of his running mate, and the Republicans hold the spotlight next week with
their own convention. But Obama's speech on Thursday night may do much to put
him back in the lead. The timing was deemed crucial by all political analysts,
even within the candidate's own entourage. He wrote the speech himself,
cloistered in a Chicago hotel room last week.
Obama has already
successfully risen to several challenges, both in terms of his message and the
organization of his campaign. But what remains is to win the challenge of
substance. "People want to know what he will do to help middle-class
families with their day-to-day lives if he's elected;" underlines Mark Mellman, former strategist for John Kerry in 2004. Joe
Biden, the new Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, began to speak frankly in
service of the cause, with accents that are more populist than concrete.
It's now up to
the Democratic tandem to find the right tone to convince Americans that they
have credible answers to the challenges of the moment, on growth and
employment, the cost of energy, competition with China, and international and
security issues. "I am not aiming for the heights of rhetoric,"
warned Obama, who seems to have understood this. "I am especially
concerned about explaining how I intend to help middle class families in their
everyday lives."
[Editor's Note:
Quote is translated - could not be confirmed with the text of Obama's speech].
The discreet but
frighteningly effective David Plouffe, campaign
manager for the candidate, summed up the four short-term goals of the
nomination speech, so as to close out the convention with success:
"Explain where he comes from, who he is fighting for, the meaning of his
promise of change and emphasize the contrast with John McCain."
Posted by
WORLDMEETS.US
In the longer
term, his system for victory has two-prongs: to convince the undecided and
boost participation. "We are trying to achieve historic levels of
participation, not just high, but historic, with Afro-Americans, Hispanics and
those under 40," explains Plouffe. Under these
circumstances, he believes he can give battle - and with luck win - in eighteen
states, more than twice the number that Democrats were competitive in - in
2004.
A 'CHANGE'
THAT SOUNDS A BIT HOLLOW
On the list, four
that were won by Kerry four years ago must remain in the bag for Obama:
Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan. The fourteen others
(Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, etc.) went to George W. Bush, but Democrats
hope to have a chance, particularly because of demographic changes that enhance
the weight of minorities. This is particularly true in the West, where
Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are considered "winnable," one of the
main reasons for the choice of Denver for the Convention. "Most of the
disputed states will be determined by a margin of 2 to 4 percent,"
predicts Plouffe, who is wary of polls, which are
often based on panels dating from 2004. "Believe me, if McCain doesn't
prevail in Colorado, he will have lost the election."
Posted by
WORLDMEETS.US
To explain the
importance of participation, already emphasized by the strategy of Bush and
Karl Rove during the last two presidential elections, Plouffe
uses the example of Florida: "There are 600,000 African-Americans who were
registered to vote in 2004 - but who didn't vote. There were over 900,000 young
people registered in the same situation. There is a base of five million
Democratic voters. Florida is one of our best chances if we properly execute
our plan to bring these people to the polls." Perhaps this isn't very
sexy," he adds, "but organization is one of the keys to the
election."
The other [key] is
the hands of the candidate who holds them. His personality, his message and his
program will make the difference among the undecided, one way or the other. The
Americans are more familiar with John McCain know roughly what to expect from
him. Barack Obama generates more enthusiasm, but less is known about him. The
enormous fair in Denver is over. Now he needs to refine his message, including
where the message of "change" rings a bit hollow. At the same time,
he must keep his base mobilized, if only to bring in at least $100 million
between now and November 4th, in addition to the $390 million already
collected.
Barack Obama
leaves the convention in Denver with the keys to the Democratic Party. He has
67 days to convince Americans to give him the keys to the country.
