[Le Matin, Morocco]



Le Figaro, France

The Middle East's 'Ominous Mechanism' Kicks In …


"Let us first turn to Iran, which is in a fever and where the most decisive threats originate. Iran's President and his trusted accomplices - and a pro-Iranian faction of al-Qaeda - hope to recreate unity among all people of Muslim faith for a renewed jihad against America and Israel."


"Israel cannot tolerate a military victory for Hezbullah over its [pro-West] Lebanese opponents - any more than it can allow Ahmadinejad to pursue nuclear blackmail. … Clearly, this is a distressing 60th anniversary for Israel "


The Chronicle of Alexandre Adler



Translated By Sandrine Ageorges


May 9, 2008


France - Le Monde - Original Article (France)

A picture worth a thousand words: A supporter of the beleaguered pro-Western government holds a poster of assassinated former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, in the northern city of Tripoli. With Hezbullah in a commanding position and in possession of much of Beirut, things don't look good for pro-Western forces.


BBC VIDEO NEWS: Pro-Western forces in Lebanon 'see the writing on the wall,' May 11, 00:01:28RealVideo

An ominous mechanism seems to have been set in motion in the Middle East. It has conspicuous causes, secondary causes and even unforeseeable hazards that nevertheless lead to a very clear convergence of threats.


Let us first turn to Iran, which is in a fever and where the most decisive threats originate. Paradoxically, this isn't because Iran is growing ever-stronger that's so dangerous, but that its domestic crisis is growing more acute. Iran's last legislative elections were indeed fixed through vote-rigging and censorship, and have resulted in an uncertain outcome: two-thirds of the new Majlis [Parliament ] call themselves “conservative,” but two-thirds also reject President Ahamdinejad and would like to see him replaced by men like the mayor of Teheran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf  or former nuclear negotiator Ali Ardashir Larijani , who have expressed doubts about both the intransigence and hysterics of Iran's current president.


At this moment, the crux of the confrontation lies in Iraq where, unlike in Teheran, everything is clear and explicit: the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr embodies Ahmadinejad's point of view, whereas the Badr Brigades  - created by the Iranians themselves - are along with their leader Ayatollah al-Hakim , part of the movement of [former Iranian President] Rafsanjani , who no longer hides his desire to reach a compromise with the United States.


It is well known that Ahmadinejad has long-desired to put an end to the bloodshed between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq which has begun to spread far and wide, from Pakistan all the way to distant Yemen. For this, Iran's President and his trusted accomplices - and a pro-Iranian faction of al-Qaeda - hope to recreate unity among all people of Muslim faith for a renewed jihad against America and Israel. Voices have been heard, notably among the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt , who hope for such an outcome and support Iran's nuclear program, which many Islamists - not only in Cairo - regard as a liberating force that should be immediately employed against Israel, whatever the risks.


If there is one place in the Middle East where a common front of Sunnis and Shiites is imaginable, it's Lebanon, since in Iraq, the Maliki government and moderate Shiites haven't hesitated to attack and put on the defensive al-Sadr and his friends. In Lebanon, the Shiite community is no less divided between the moderates, the centrists (the pro-Syrian movement of Amal de Nabih Berry ) and the extremism of the current [Parliamentary] majority controlled by Hassan Nasrallah's Hezbullah . But despite these tensions that have insinuated themselves even into the heart of Hezbullah since the fighting in 2006, hatred of the Israelis remains a unifying force. The military alliance sealed in Damascus between Lebanese Hezbullah and the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood of Hamas continues to withstand all warnings from Saudi Arabia - and all sectarian hostilities.


A Druze man kisses the corpse of a close relative, killed in a clash

with anti-West forces in Chouweifat, south of Beirut, May 11. The

pro-Western Druze community, an offshoot of Islam influenced by

the Greeks and the Christian Gnostics, stands to lose the most in

a more pro-Iranian, pro-Syrian Lebanon.


That is why with his back to the wall - Ahmadinejad has only one card in hand: Nasrallah and his friends. Thanks to the pre-Freudian nature of current Arab policy, one can sometimes read Nasrallah like he was an open book: after the fighting in 2006, he apologized to the Lebanese people and acknowledged that he had underestimated the Israeli reaction to the abduction of soldiers he conducted on direct orders from Teheran.


The Shiite Pope, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: Hezbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah seems ready to defy even his 'father' Khamenei to help jis 'brother' - Iranian President Ahmedinidjad, forge a global, Muslim anti-U.S., anti Israel Alliance.

Translation: his "father" figure in Teheran may well change [the regime may topple]; and Damascus, which is flirting at this very moment with Israel, may not with certainty maintain its provocative line; but even if the Faqih, the Shiite Pope, Ali Khamenei, the "father," doesn't agree to the offensive [the abductions of Israelis in 2006], Nasrallah the soldier is prepared to cut off his own arm to help his brother Ahmadinejad, the only true enemy of the Jews and Americans during this Thermidorian [counter-revolutionary ] time that Iran is passing through.



But now, after having fully realized the complete takeover of the telecommunication system of the Lebanese state, having without scruples contributed to the gridlock of Lebanon's political system and having received, via Damascus, large numbers of missiles to offset the losses of two years ago, Nasrallah has announced that civil war against the independent government of Fouad Siniora  is imminent. In addition, he admits in passing that he will follow his present course all the way to the end, even if his “father,” orders him not to do so and he has to cut off his arm to obey God-knows-what injunction.


[Editor's Note: This conflict was triggered in part when the government outlawed Hezbullah’s fiber-optic communications network - which explains the group's takeover of the telecommunications system].


Druze leader Walid Jumblatt: His pro-West constituency is withering away, along with its influence.

Al-Jazeera TV, Via MEMRI: Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt Exchanges Curses and Threats with his pro-Syrian, Pro-Iranian Rivals, Feb.-March, 00:05:43RealVideo

From there, the inevitable gear has been engaged: Israel cannot tolerate a military victory for Hezbullah over the group's [pro-West] opponents in Lebanon - among which are Maronite Samir Farid Geagea , Druze leader Walid Jumblatt  and their direct protégés - any more than it can allow Ahmadinejad to pursue nuclear blackmail, especially in this very strange context: There is the probability that a Democratic candidate - indeed an Obama election victory - could bring to the White House a supporter of negotiations at all costs.


The imminent fall of the [Israeli] Prime Minister Olmert could pave the way for a Barak-Netanyahou government, the cementing of which could well succeed in exercising revenge - in the air and on the ground - over Hezbullah, and precipitate a major crisis in Israel's political system. Clearly, this is a distressing 60th anniversary for Israel.









































[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US May 11, 1:16pm]