[Le Matin, Morocco]
Le Figaro, France
The Middle East's 'Ominous Mechanism' Kicks
In …
"Let us first turn to Iran, which is in a fever and
where the most decisive threats originate. Iran's President and his trusted
accomplices - and a pro-Iranian faction of al-Qaeda - hope to recreate unity
among all people of Muslim faith for a renewed jihad against America and
Israel."
"Israel cannot tolerate a military victory for
Hezbullah over its [pro-West] Lebanese opponents - any more than it can allow
Ahmadinejad to pursue nuclear blackmail. … Clearly, this is a distressing 60th
anniversary for Israel "
The
Chronicle of Alexandre Adler
Translated
By Sandrine Ageorges
May
9, 2008
France
- Le Monde - Original Article (France)
An ominous mechanism seems to have been set in motion
in the Middle East. It has conspicuous causes, secondary causes and even
unforeseeable hazards that nevertheless lead to a very clear convergence of threats.
Let us first turn to Iran, which is in a fever and
where the most decisive threats originate. Paradoxically, this isn't because
Iran is growing ever-stronger that's so dangerous, but that its domestic crisis
is growing more acute. Iran's last legislative elections were indeed fixed
through vote-rigging and censorship, and have resulted in an uncertain outcome:
two-thirds of the new Majlis [Parliament 
]
call themselves “conservative,” but two-thirds also reject President
Ahamdinejad and would like to see him replaced by men like the mayor of
Teheran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or former nuclear negotiator Ali Ardashir
Larijani , who have
expressed doubts about both the intransigence and hysterics of Iran's current
president.
At this moment, the crux of the confrontation lies in
Iraq where, unlike in Teheran, everything is clear and explicit: the Mahdi Army
of Moqtada al-Sadr embodies Ahmadinejad's point of view, whereas the Badr
Brigades - created by the Iranians themselves - are
along with their leader Ayatollah al-Hakim ,
part of the movement of [former Iranian President] Rafsanjani ,
who no longer hides his desire to reach a compromise with the United States.
It is well known that Ahmadinejad has long-desired to
put an end to the bloodshed between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq which has begun
to spread far and wide, from Pakistan all the way to distant Yemen. For this,
Iran's President and his trusted accomplices - and a pro-Iranian faction of
al-Qaeda - hope to recreate unity among all people of Muslim faith for a
renewed jihad against America and Israel. Voices have been heard, notably among
the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt ,
who hope for such an outcome and support Iran's nuclear program, which many
Islamists - not only in Cairo - regard as a liberating force that should be
immediately employed against Israel, whatever the risks.
If there is one place in the Middle East where a
common front of Sunnis and Shiites is imaginable, it's Lebanon, since in Iraq,
the Maliki government and moderate Shiites haven't hesitated to attack and put
on the defensive al-Sadr and his friends. In Lebanon, the Shiite community is
no less divided between the moderates, the centrists (the pro-Syrian movement
of Amal de Nabih Berry ) and the extremism
of the current [Parliamentary] majority controlled by Hassan Nasrallah's
Hezbullah . But despite these
tensions that have insinuated themselves even into the heart of Hezbullah since
the fighting in 2006, hatred of the Israelis remains a unifying force. The
military alliance sealed in Damascus between Lebanese Hezbullah and the
Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood of Hamas continues to withstand all warnings
from Saudi Arabia - and all sectarian hostilities.
A Druze man kisses the
corpse of a close relative, killed in a clash
with anti-West forces in
Chouweifat, south of Beirut, May 11. The
pro-Western Druze
community, an offshoot of Islam influenced by
the Greeks and the
Christian Gnostics, stands to lose the most in
a more pro-Iranian,
pro-Syrian Lebanon.
That is why with his back to the wall - Ahmadinejad
has only one card in hand: Nasrallah and his friends. Thanks to the
pre-Freudian nature of current Arab policy, one can sometimes read Nasrallah
like he was an open book: after the fighting in 2006, he apologized to the
Lebanese people and acknowledged that he had underestimated the Israeli
reaction to the abduction of soldiers he conducted on direct orders from
Teheran.
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The Shiite Pope, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei:
Hezbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah seems ready to defy even his 'father'
Khamenei to help jis 'brother' - Iranian President Ahmedinidjad, forge a
global, Muslim anti-U.S., anti Israel Alliance.
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Translation: his "father" figure
in Teheran may well change [the regime may topple]; and Damascus, which is
flirting at this very moment with Israel, may not with certainty maintain its provocative
line; but even if the Faqih, the Shiite Pope, Ali Khamenei, the
"father," doesn't agree to the offensive [the abductions of Israelis in
2006], Nasrallah the soldier is prepared to cut off his own arm to help his
brother Ahmadinejad, the only true enemy of the Jews and Americans during this Thermidorian
[counter-revolutionary ] time that Iran is
passing through.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
But now, after having fully realized the
complete takeover of the telecommunication system of the Lebanese state, having
without scruples contributed to the gridlock of Lebanon's political system and
having received, via Damascus, large numbers of missiles to offset the losses
of two years ago, Nasrallah has announced that civil war against the
independent government of Fouad Siniora is imminent. In addition, he admits in passing
that he will follow his present course all the way to the end, even if his
“father,” orders him not to do so and he has to cut off his arm to obey
God-knows-what injunction.
[Editor's Note: This conflict was
triggered in part when the government outlawed Hezbullah’s fiber-optic
communications network - which explains the group's takeover of the
telecommunications system].
From there, the inevitable gear has been engaged:
Israel cannot tolerate a military victory for Hezbullah over the group's [pro-West]
opponents in Lebanon - among which are Maronite Samir Farid Geagea , Druze
leader Walid Jumblatt and their direct protégés - any more than it
can allow Ahmadinejad to pursue nuclear blackmail, especially in this very
strange context: There is the probability that a Democratic candidate - indeed
an Obama election victory - could bring to the White House a supporter of
negotiations at all costs.
The imminent fall of the [Israeli] Prime Minister
Olmert could pave the way for a Barak-Netanyahou government, the cementing of
which could well succeed in exercising revenge - in the air and on the ground -
over Hezbullah, and precipitate a major crisis in Israel's political system.
Clearly, this is a distressing 60th anniversary for Israel.
CLICK HERE FOR FRENCH
VERSION
[Posted by
WORLDMEETS.US May 11, 1:16pm]
