Are democracies inherently more peaceful
than other forms of government? This editorial from China's state-run Global
Times suggests not, and pleads with South Korea and the U.S. not to allow
their "hardliners" to play chicken with North
Korea and benefit politically from taking their respective countries down the path to a war
no one wants.
The participation of an
American aircraft carrier in military exercises on the Yellow Sea raises
the stakes for the Korean Peninsula. The exchange of shell fire between North
and South Korea was tactical, but the involvement of a U.S. aircraft carrier
adds to the friction and the nature of the conflict.
The United States, South Korea
and North Korea: which party is really prepared for an all-out war on the Peninsula?
The real answer is, none of the above. North Korea hasn't overpowered South
Korea, and South Korea lacks the stomach for a full-scale war. The U.S.,
meanwhile, just emerged from its Iraq War abyss, and is mentally unprepared to
face a new war with an unpredictable outcome.
In this context, the U.S., South
Korea and North Korea shouldn't attempt to intimidate one other by taking a
stance of blind strength. Because they should all understand that the
opposition is no more stupid than they are. It's like when you're sure of your
opponent's lowest card, but your opponent is also sure of yours.
On November 28, China called
on the participants of the Six-Party Talks to hold urgent consultations in
order to help cool the situation. Regardless of whether this Chinese proposal is
effective or not, China's attitude is sincere and realistic.
The U.S. and South Korea as
well as the North should seize this new opportunity provided by China to abandon
the strategy of mutual threats and promptly sit down and find a common ground at
the negotiating table in Beijing.
If the situation is to be
salvaged, they need to avoid adhering to their hard-line stances. This is especially
true of the U.S. and South Korea, where the official position is so easily
driven by public sentiment. Democracy isn't always the fire extinguisher of war,
particularly at critical moments in certain countries, once it has consolidated
strong public opinion.
There a strange phenomenon
that occurs in Northeast Asia: peace dominates mainstream public opinion, but
is often crushed by the voice of non-mainstream hardliners. In these countries,
in terms of public opinion, a hard-line position is relatively safe; and if an
election is involved, it can be politically beneficial. On the other hand, calling
for reason and compromise with others is risky, as it is often labeled anything
from "weak" to "traitorous."
Northeast Asia must end this
vicious cycle. Governments should first tell the truth, instead of dodging the
real situation and allowing impractical hard-line doctrine to dominate public
opinion. The twists and turns of the past show that Northeast
Asian countries have the capacity to sidestep extreme positions. The key
is for governments to do so in the people's benefit.
The situation in Northeast
Asia over the past decade shows that no country has resolved its problems by sticking
to hard-line policies. These offer only short-term benefits to some politicians,
while creating adversity that the state must slowly repair. Hard-line policies invariably
bring a change in government and hence, such policies are in the end abandoned.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
have been gathering in recent years, and dangerous sparks are beginning to fly.
First of all, this is a warning for both sides of the 38th parallel; then it is
a warning to the entire Northeast Asia region. The current risks tell us that while
the idea of war isn't popular, in an odd way it is drawing closer; and in an
odd way, we are tolerating it as it does so.
We tell ourselves that at the
last moment, a solution could be found. This is completely false. We mustn't
forget the fact that no one is directing the game on the Korean Peninsula; everyone
is an actor in a dangerous drama with unwritten rules designed to frighten people.
Who can guarantee what will happen when this dark fantasy comes to pass?
